The Shifting Demographic Landscape of Pandemic Influenza
| dc.creator | Bansal, Shweta | en |
| dc.creator | Pourbohloul, Babak | en |
| dc.creator | Hupert, Nathaniel | en |
| dc.creator | Grenfell, Bryan | en |
| dc.creator | Meyers, Lauren Ancel | en |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2013-06-28T14:33:23Z | en |
| dc.date.available | 2013-06-28T14:33:23Z | en |
| dc.date.issued | 2010-02-26 | en |
| dc.description | Shweta Bansal is with Pennsylvania State University and NIH, Babak Pourbohloul is with British Columbia Centre for Disease Control and University of British Columbia, Nathaniel Hupert is with Weill Cornell Medical College and CDC, Bryan Grenfell is with Princeton University, Lauren Ancel Meyers is with UT Austin and Santa Fe Institute. | en |
| dc.description.abstract | Background -- As Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza spreads around the globe, it strikes school-age children more often than adults. Although there is some evidence of pre-existing immunity among older adults, this alone may not explain the significant gap in age-specific infection rates. Methods and Findings -- Based on a retrospective analysis of pandemic strains of influenza from the last century, we show that school-age children typically experience the highest attack rates in primarily naive populations, with the burden shifting to adults during the subsequent season. Using a parsimonious network-based mathematical model which incorporates the changing distribution of contacts in the susceptible population, we demonstrate that new pandemic strains of influenza are expected to shift the epidemiological landscape in exactly this way. Conclusions -- Our analysis provides a simple demographic explanation for the age bias observed for H1N1/09 attack rates, and suggests that this bias may shift in coming months. These results have significant implications for the allocation of public health resources for H1N1/09 and future influenza pandemics. | en |
| dc.description.department | Biological Sciences, School of | en |
| dc.description.sponsorship | This work was supported by the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) program of the Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security, and the Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health (NIH); grants from the James F. McDonnell Foundation, National Science Foundation (DEB-0749097), and NIH Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) (U01-GM087719-01) to L.A.M.; and support from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (PTL97125 and PAP93425) and the Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research to B.P. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. | en |
| dc.identifier.citation | Bansal S, Pourbohloul B, Hupert N, Grenfell B, Meyers LA (2010) The Shifting Demographic Landscape of Pandemic Influenza. PLoS ONE 5(2): e9360. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0009360 | en |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1371/journal.pone.0009360 | en |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2152/20485 | en |
| dc.language.iso | eng | en |
| dc.publisher | Public Library of Science | en |
| dc.rights | Attribution 3.0 United States | en |
| dc.rights | CC-BY | en |
| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/us/ | en |
| dc.subject | Children | en |
| dc.subject | Epidemiology | en |
| dc.subject | H1N1 | en |
| dc.subject | Immunity | en |
| dc.subject | Infectious disease epidemiology | en |
| dc.subject | Influenza | en |
| dc.subject | Influenza A virus | en |
| dc.subject | Vaccination and immunization | en |
| dc.title | The Shifting Demographic Landscape of Pandemic Influenza | en |
| dc.type | Article | en |