Vaccination Against 2009 Pandemic H1N1 in a Population Dynamical Model of Vancouver, Canada: Timing is Everything

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dc.contributor.utaustinauthorMeyers, Lauren Ancelen_US
dc.creatorConway, Jessica M.en_US
dc.creatorTuite, Ashleigh R.en_US
dc.creatorFisman, David N.en_US
dc.creatorHupert, Nathanielen_US
dc.creatorMeza, Rafaelen_US
dc.creatorDavoudi, Bahmanen_US
dc.creatorEnglish, Kristaen_US
dc.creatorvan den Driessche, P.en_US
dc.creatorBrauer, Freden_US
dc.creatorMa, Junlingen_US
dc.creatorMeyers, Lauren Ancelen_US
dc.creatorSmieja, Mareken_US
dc.creatorGreer, Amyen_US
dc.creatorSkowronski, Danuta M.en_US
dc.creatorBuckeridge, David L.en_US
dc.creatorKwong, Jeffrey C.en_US
dc.creatorWu, Jianhongen_US
dc.creatorMoghadas, Seyed M.en_US
dc.creatorCoombs, Danielen_US
dc.creatorBrunham, Robert C.en_US
dc.creatorPourbohloul, Babaken_US
dc.date.accessioned2016-10-28T19:49:12Z
dc.date.available2016-10-28T19:49:12Z
dc.date.issued2011-12en_US
dc.description.abstractMuch remains unknown about the effect of timing and prioritization of vaccination against pandemic (pH1N1) 2009 virus on health outcomes. We adapted a city-level contact network model to study different campaigns on influenza morbidity and mortality. Methods: We modeled different distribution strategies initiated between July and November 2009 using a compartmental epidemic model that includes age structure and transmission network dynamics. The model represents the Greater Vancouver Regional District, a major North American city and surrounding suburbs with a population of 2 million, and is parameterized using data from the British Columbia Ministry of Health, published studies, and expert opinion. Outcomes are expressed as the number of infections and deaths averted due to vaccination. Results: The model output was consistent with provincial surveillance data. Assuming a basic reproduction number = 1.4, an 8-week vaccination campaign initiated 2 weeks before the epidemic onset reduced morbidity and mortality by 79-91% and 80-87%, respectively, compared to no vaccination. Prioritizing children and parents for vaccination may have reduced transmission compared to actual practice, but the mortality benefit of this strategy appears highly sensitive to campaign timing. Modeling the actual late October start date resulted in modest reductions in morbidity and mortality (13-25% and 16-20%, respectively) with little variation by prioritization scheme. Conclusion: Delays in vaccine production due to technological or logistical barriers may reduce potential benefits of vaccination for pandemic influenza, and these temporal effects can outweigh any additional theoretical benefits from population targeting. Careful modeling may provide decision makers with estimates of these effects before the epidemic peak to guide production goals and inform policy. Integration of real-time surveillance data with mathematical models holds the promise of enabling public health planners to optimize the community benefits from proposed interventions before the pandemic peak.en_US
dc.description.departmentIntegrative Biologyen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipCanadian Institute of Health Research (CIHR) PTL-97126en_US
dc.identifierdoi:10.15781/T2639K77X
dc.identifier.citationConway, Jessica M., Ashleigh R. Tuite, David N. Fisman, Nathaniel Hupert, Rafael Meza, Bahman Davoudi, Krista English et al. "Vaccination against 2009 pandemic H1N1 in a population dynamical model of Vancouver, Canada: timing is everything." BMC public health, Vol. 11, No. 1 (Dec., 2011): 1.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/1471-2458-11-932en_US
dc.identifier.issn1471-2458en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2152/43136
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.relation.ispartofen_US
dc.relation.ispartofserialBMC Public Healthen_US
dc.rightsAdministrative deposit of works to Texas ScholarWorks: This works author(s) is or was a University faculty member, student or staff member; this article is already available through open access or the publisher allows a PDF version of the article to be freely posted online. The library makes the deposit as a matter of fair use (for scholarly, educational, and research purposes), and to preserve the work and further secure public access to the works of the University.en_US
dc.rights.restrictionOpenen_US
dc.subjectinfluenza vaccineen_US
dc.subjectvirus-infectionen_US
dc.subjectpublic-healthen_US
dc.subjectageen_US
dc.subjectstrategiesen_US
dc.subjectmortalityen_US
dc.subjectoutbreaksen_US
dc.subjectchildrenen_US
dc.subjectpolicyen_US
dc.subjectmexicoen_US
dc.subjectpublic, environmental & occupational healthen_US
dc.titleVaccination Against 2009 Pandemic H1N1 in a Population Dynamical Model of Vancouver, Canada: Timing is Everythingen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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