Facility planning and value of information : a case study of deepwater reservoir compartmentalization
This thesis investigates how estimates of reservoir compartmentalization impact facility sizing decisions and the degree to which inaccurate estimates destroy project value. An uncertainty analysis workflow is proposed and an asset development optimization model is specified to simulate the decision making process during concept selection. The model endogenizes drilling decisions and includes a real option to expand facility capacity after the uncertain variables are realized. The value of information analysis suggests that cost of erroneous estimates of reservoir compartmentalization is significant and can reduce asset value by more than 30%. We also find that the negative impacts are larger when the degree of compartmentalization is underestimated (too optimistic) than when it is overestimated (too pessimistic).