Spatial prediction of wind farm outputs for grid integration using the augmented Kriging-based model

Wind generating resources have been increasing more rapidly than any other renewable generating resources. Wind power forecasting is an important issue for deploying higher wind power penetrations on power grids. The existing work on power output forecasting for wind farms has focused on the temporal issues. As wind farm outputs depend on natural wind resources that vary over space and time, spatial analysis and modeling is also needed. Predictions about suitability for locating new wind generating resources can be performed using spatial modeling. In this dissertation, we propose a new approach to spatial prediction of wind farm outputs for grid integration based on Kriging techniques.

First, we investigate the characteristics of wind farm outputs. Wind power is variable, uncontrollable, and uncertain compared to traditional generating resources. In order to understand the characteristics of wind power outputs, we study the variability of wind farm outputs using correlation analysis. We estimate the Power Spectrum Density (PSD) from empirical data. Following Apt[1], we classify the estimated PSD into four frequency ranges having different slopes. We subsequently focus on phenomena relating to the slope of the estimated PSD at a low frequency range because our spatial prediction is based on the period over daily to monthly timescales.

Since most of the energy is in the lower frequency components (the second, third, and fourth slope regions have much lower spectral density than the first), the conclusion is that the dominant issues regarding energy will be captured by the low frequency behavior. Consequently, most of the issues regarding energy (at least at longer timescales) will be captured by the first slope, since relatively little energy is in the other regions. We propose the slope estimation model of new wind farm production. When the existing wind farms are highly correlated and the slope of each wind farm is estimated at a low frequency range, we can predict the slope with low frequency components of a new wind farm through the proposed spatial interpolation techniques.

Second, we propose a new approach, based on Kriging techniques, to predict wind farm outputs. We introduce Kriging techniques for spatial prediction, modeling semivariograms for spatial correlation, and mathematical formulation of the Kriging system. The aim of spatial modeling is to calculate a target value of wind production at unmeasured or new locations based on the existing values that have already been measured at locations considering the spatial correlation relationship between measured values. We propose the multivariate spatial approach based on Co-Kriging to consider multiple variables for better prediction. Co-Kriging is a multivariate spatial technique to predict spatially distributed and correlated variables and it adds auxiliary variables to a single variable of interest at unmeasured locations.

Third, we develop the Augmented Kriging-based Model, to predict power outputs at unmeasured or new wind farms that are geographically distributed in a region. The proposed spatial prediction model consists of three stages: collection of wind farm data for spatial analysis, performance of spatial analysis and prediction, and verification of the predicted wind farm outputs. The proposed spatial prediction model provides the univariate prediction based on Universal Kriging techniques and the multivariate prediction based on Universal and Co-Kriging techniques. The proposed multivariate prediction model considers multiple variables: the measured wind power output as a primary variable and the type or hub height of wind turbines, or the slope with low frequency components as a secondary variable. The multivariate problem is solved by Co-Kriging techniques. In addition, we propose $p$ indicator as a categorical variable considering the data configuration of wind farms connected to electrical power grids. Although the interconnection voltage does not influence the wind regime, it does affect transmission system issues such as the level of curtailments, which, in turn, affect power production. Voltage level is therefore used as a proxy to the effect of the transmission system on power output.

The Augmented Kriging-based Model (AKM) is implemented in the R system environments and the latest Gstat library is used for the implementation of the AKM.

Fourth, we demonstrate the performance of the proposed spatial prediction model based on Kriging techniques in the context of the McCamey and Central areas of ERCOT CREZ. Spatial prediction of ERCOT wind farms is performed in daily, weekly, and monthly time scales for January to September 2009. These time scales all correspond to the lowest frequency range of the estimated PSD. We propose a merit function to provide practical information to find optimal wind farm sites based on spatial wind farm output prediction, including correlation with other wind farms. Our approach can predict what will happen when a new wind farm is added at various locations.

Fifth, we propose the Augmented Sequential Outage Checker (ASOC) as a possible approach to study the transmission system, including grid integration of wind-powered generation resources. We analyze cascading outages caused by a combination of thermal overloads, low voltages, and under-frequencies following an initial disturbance using the ASOC.