A statistical analysis of COVID-19 for the Houston Area

To support planning by a major academic medical center in Houston, we provide a decision tool. A Texas COVID-19 pandemic forecast model is developed and scaled down to the greater Houston area to project the number of new cases, disease prevalence, and hospitalizations. Given the daily expected disease prevalence in the greater Houston area and a hypothetical number of daily regular patient visits, a probabilistic model informs decision-makers of the likelihood that x or more COVID-19 cases enter a facility. The COVID-19 projections are immediately needed to guide daily admittance decisions during the course of the outbreak.