Suburban tissues as a scoring system for assessing the retrofitability of shopping centers in Austin, Texas

Despite being condemned by experts and scholars as unsustainable, inefficient, and wasteful, urban sprawl persists as the prevailing growth pattern across the United States. Sprawl has been associated with the proliferation of health problems, pollution, racial and economic disparities, vacancy rates, local taxes and even violence. Sprawl can take on different forms, but it is generally defined by the following features: 1. Low density design. 2. Lack of multi-use development patterns. 3. Automobile dependency. 4. Gridlock. 5. Inadequate public transit. Austin, Texas is one of the top U.S. metropolitan cities afflicted by the sprawl epidemic. City data indicates that just within the city limits, Austin's developed land area has swelled from 53 square miles in 1970 to over 300 square miles in 2010; and from 2010 to 2016, the average neighborhood density fell by 5 percent. Furthermore, development within the city’s ETJ has brought the total developed land area to roughly 372 square miles. This widespread growth characterized as sprawl has resulted in longer commutes and development patterns that can neither be easily nor affordably served by public transportation. Census data collected through the American Community Survey from 2011 through 2017 shows that the average commute time for Austin, Texas rose from 22.6 minutes in 2011 to 24.9 minutes in 2017 (see Figure 1). Further, census data collected through the American Community Survey from 2009 through 2017 indicates that the percentage of Austin city residents with commutes ranging from less than 5 minutes to 24 minutes have slowly decreased each year, while commutes ranging from 25 to 90 minutes or more have gradually increased (see Figure 2; see Appendix for full data). While these statistics do not take into account the distance traveled to work or the geographic patterns of commuters and jobs shifting, it might still suggest that Austin residents’ commutes are steadily getting longer, possibly due to residents moving further away from the Central Business District as they seek out more affordable housing. Despite efforts to refine and improve policies that promote compact, sustainable growth, Austin continues to see sprawl development patterns. While expansion has slowed down over recent years, developable land is becoming scarce. Also on the decline are the occupancy rates at shopping centers and malls. Commonly occupying large swaths of valuable land, shopping centers are full of potential and may be prime candidates for sprawl repair intervention, perhaps even long before going belly up. The purpose of this report is to use a set of metrics and the concept of “suburban tissues,” a term coined by Brenda Case Scheer, to quantify which of the three shopping centers in Austin, Texas that I have selected for this study have the highest potential for sprawl repair interventions.