Browsing by Subject "Rainforests"
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Item The sensitivity of the Congo Basin rainforests to climate change(2022-12-02) Manoj, Harisankar; Cook, Kerry Harrison, 1953-; Vizy, Edward Kalman, 1973-; Heimbach, PatrickTropical Rainforests require significant attention from the scientific community, not only because of the biodiversity and the valuable reFsources they bear but also due to their indispensable role as climate regulators. Therefore, it is crucial that we understand how these biomes may change in a warming climate. This study is centered around the Congo Basin rainforests which constitute the second-largest stretch of tropical rainforest in the world and have a pivotal role in the tropical climate system. Understanding the responsiveness of these forests to climate variations is a pressing theme as Congo is one of the most understudied forest regions in the tropics, with uncertainties in the long-term climate trend and forest evolution. The purpose of this study is to understand if the changing climate of the Congo Basin is becoming less able to support the existence of the tropical rainforest. To address this issue, we will adapt a Potential Vegetation Model (PVM; Oyama and Nobre 2004) for use in the Congo Basin. This model represents the potential biomes in equilibrium with the given climatological data. The PVM is run over the Congo Basin area using the 1979-2020 monthly mean climatology from the ECMWF Re-Analysis 5 (ERA5) dataset. The model is also run with monthly mean climatology of four decades derived from the ERA5 record (1980-2019). In addition, the PVM is used on future NCAR-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model projections to predict how the equilibrium changes in the Mid-21ˢᵗ, and Late 21ˢᵗ century time periods under increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. The ERA5 forced PVM results indicate that the open and the semi-deciduous forest classes in the peripheral Congo Basin areas have responded to alterations in the climate and retreated over the last four decades. The PVM forced with the WRF model climate projections also show a retreat of the tropical rainforest by the Late 21ˢᵗ century. Analysis of the forcing parameters of the PVM reveals that changes in the moisture parameters are behind these changes. Further analysis indicates the role of temperature, saturated vapor pressure, and soil moisture variables as the major drivers of these moisture parameters.