Browsing by Subject "Extreme weather"
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Item Improved urban extreme weather simulation by capturing urban heterogeneity(2023-08-11) Fung, Kwun Yip; Yang, Zong-liang; Niyogi, Dev; Banner, Jay L.; Jackson, Charles S.; Vizy, Edward K.The current observations clearly indicate a world undergoing climate change, marked by increased frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy rainfall events since 1950. The repercussions of extreme weather in urban settings are highly variable due to the diverse environments present. These risks will disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, making it essential to study the effects of urban heterogeneity on extreme weather. This dissertation is structured into three main sections. 1. Methodology Development: The first section delves into various machine learning techniques and urban datasets to produce a precise Local Climate Zone (LCZ) map. The LCZ classification, which divides urban areas into 10 classes, aids in capturing urban heterogeneity. The random forest classifier is highlighted as producing an accurate and high-resolution output in a short timeframe. Key factors governing classification accuracy are building height and imperviousness. Building height improves the accuracy of high-rise classes, while the imperviousness dataset enhances the accuracy of low-rise classes. The refined LCZ map contributes to more accurate computational simulations of urban heterogeneity. 2. Enhancing Tropical Cyclone Simulations: The second section focuses on evaluating improvements in tropical cyclone simulations by integrating LCZ to capture urban heterogeneity. While LCZ has proven beneficial for simulating temperature, wind, humidity, and non-hurricane rainfall, its impact during tropical cyclones has been underexplored. Simulation experiments, when compared with observations, demonstrate that incorporating LCZ in urban areas enhances the accuracy of 10-m wind, 2-m temperature, land surface temperature, and rainfall hotspot locations. This underscores the significance of considering urban heterogeneity when predicting and preparing for tropical cyclones. 3. Equitable Urban Overheating Mitigation: The third section investigates the efficacy of diverse urban overheating mitigation strategies, while also addressing equity concerns. Simulations of cool roofs, green roofs, and urban trees during five heatwave events reveal that the urban trees strategy is most effective in achieving equity by cooling down vulnerable neighborhoods in Houston. This study emphasizes the necessity of factoring in city layouts and demographics to develop equitable solutions. Overall, this dissertation addresses the impacts of urban heterogeneity on extreme weather comprehensively, outlining methodologies for accurate representation, improvements in tropical cyclone simulations, and the importance of equitable urban overheating mitigation strategies.Item Presentation: Extreme Weather and Uncertainty in Forecasting(Environmental Science Institute, 2014-10-06) Environmental Science Institute; Kloesel, KevinItem Resilience through risk assessment : a conceptual framework for extreme weather risk assessment of the Texas port system(2021-05-06) Bathgate, Kyle Duram; Zhang, Zhanmin, 1962-As extreme weather events increase in frequency and intensity, it is imperative to understand the existing resilience capabilities of critical physical infrastructure systems and identify areas for future improvement. Seaport systems are host to several interconnected and interdependent critical systems with a diverse set of freight transportation modes and supporting infrastructure systems present. Disruptions to port operations may have severe consequences for both local and regional economies. Therefore, understanding which infrastructure components are critical, vulnerable, and exposed to extreme weather hazards is paramount for identifying assets in need of retrofitting to reduce the risk of failure and increase system resilience. This study presents a conceptual framework to assess the risk of port system assets to extreme weather hazards. A review of relevant literature is presented, followed by the characterization of extreme weather events, a description of Texas port systems and inventory data, and methods and results of port stakeholder outreach activities. Finally, an initial conceptual framework is described that incorporates data and results obtained from previous chapters. The framework is intended to be straightforward for easy implementation and is targeted toward real-world application by port stakeholders. The framework contains four main components: 1) criticality assessment, 2) vulnerability assessment, 3) extreme weather exposure assessment, and 4) physical risk assessment. The risk scores may help inform port stakeholders as to the susceptibility of their infrastructure assets and may offer a tool to increase system resilience through future project selection and allocation measures.Item Three essays on the state, public opinion, and environmental politics in Latin America(2023-12) Calacino, Anthony; Gerring, John, 1962-; Nielson, Daniel; Weyland, Kurt G; Abers, RebeccaThis dissertation explores how Brazil and Mexico respond to environmental challenges, and how these responses can influence the political behavior of citizens. Three essays delve into specific aspects of this relationship. The first essay investigates the shifts in support for state-led environmental protection in the Brazilian Amazon. While Brazil historically succeeded in building such capacity, recent environmental state retrenchment remains inadequately explained. Drawing on data from Brazil's national congress, 300,000 fines for environmental infractions at the district level, and interviews with over 60 public officials and experts, I argue that partisan dynamics and electoral vulnerability jointly shape state-led environmental protection levels. Left-wing politicians consolidate capacity with low electoral vulnerability, whereas conservative counterparts erode it. Vulnerable centrist and right-wing governments tend to maintain capacity, while vulnerable left-wing governments lead to low support due to business elites' counter-mobilization. My findings highlight the role subnational politicians play in eroding capacity from the bottom-up, as well as how business elite behavior is not strictly-rational. Partisan-motivated reasoning helps explain puzzling patterns of mobilization against the Left and subsequently lower support for the state to achieve environmental protections. The second essay proposes and tests a theory on how extreme weather events and subnational government responses affect public trust in politics and democracy. My argument states that local government responses to extreme weather tend to exacerbate inequalities. The effects lead to disaffection toward the electoral system rather than individual politicians. Analyzing weather events and surveys of public opinion in Brazil and Mexico from 2006 to 2019, I find that drought lowers trust in elections. I validate the role of politicized resource distribution in explaining this relationship using a novel measure of demand for water at the municipal level. Moreover, in areas with high levels of clientelism, the individualistic exchange of goods and services for political support, trust in municipal governments becomes polarized when extreme drought occurs. These findings underscore the importance of fairness perceptions in disaster response, influencing political trust and aspects of democracy. My findings contribute to our understanding of how local governments manage environmental and societal interactions, and suggest how climate change may exacerbate declining support for democracy. The third essay explores foreign influence on Brazilian citizens' opinions regarding environmental protection through a pre-registered survey experiment (n = 1003). This research seeks to understand how influence from abroad affects public opinion of climate policies, which in turn helps explain why state capacity on the environment may change over time. I find limited overall effects of prompts about foreign aid and shame for environmental issues, except shame significantly decreases support for a carbon tax. Aid generally increases support among environmentally conscious citizens, but against expectations, it decreases support for climate policies among those who don't prioritize the environment while shame sometimes increases support. Overall, foreign pressures land differently for distinct citizens based on their environmental priorities. Foreign actors face the risk of polarizing support for greater policy commitments to the climate and environment.Item Welcome to Planet Texas 2050(The Medium, 2018-05-31) Lieberknecht, Katherine