TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW A MONTHLY SUMMARY OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN TEXAS BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH COLLEGE OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS . VOL. XXIII, NO. 9 OCTOBER 1949 HIGHLIGHTS OF TEXAS BUSINESS PERCENT DECREASE PERCENT INCREASE -SEPTEMBER 1949 COMPARED 70 60 50 40 , WITH SEPTEMBER 1948 Postal receipts. .................................. . -Farm cash income ............................. . - _Electric power consumption ............. . Bank debits ........................................ . ~ Retail sales........................................ . . Cotton consumption ......................... . Construction contracts..................... . ~ Crude petroleum production ........... . -Revenue freight loaded ................... . r -SEPTEMBER 1949 COMPARED 70 -WITH AUGUST 1949 - ~ Farm cash income ............................. . -Crude petroleum production .......... . -Cotton consumption ......................... . -Bank debits ........................................ . Electric power consumption ............. . · Postal receipts ................................... . : Retail sales........................................ . Revenue freight loaded .................... . ! Construction contracts ..................... . PERCENT TWE TY CENTS PER COPY TWO DOLLARS PER YEAR TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW • The Business Situation tn Texas The level of Texas business rose again in September, bringing the Bureau's new composite index to the highest point reached in 1949 and to a point only 3.5% below the postwar peak reached in April 1948. The level of business has been moving gradually upward in Texas since the upturn in June reversed the trend of the pre­ceding 12 months. Not all phases of business have moved in the same direction during the past four months, but a majority of the Bureau's barometers have shown an increase. The composite index of business activity de­clined in July but reversed its direction in August to establish that month as the highest for the year to date. Although September registered a continuation of the risino-volume of business, it did not carry through all pha~s of business, and some of the Bureau's general indexes fail to corroborate the rise. INDEX OF BANK DEBITS IN TEXAS 1947 Bank debits, on the other hand, acted counter to the general business index and dropped slightly but were still well above the levels of July and the average for the year. Postal receipts acted in much the same manner. Both of these indexes are fairly good indicators of over­all business conditions and bear watching in the near future. Employment data available do agree with the indi­cations of the composite index. Unemployment was down 9,040 from the preceding month, some of this due to the resumption of school. Manufacturing employment increased by 2,100, most of this in the nondurable goods industries. The best comprehensive measure of the United States economy is the income received by individuals. The United States Department of Commerce reported that this total was at an annual rate of $211.5 billion (season· ally adjusted) in August, 2 billion higher than the July rate. This confirms the general feeling among economists that business did in fact turn up in August. The composite index rose to 196.9% of the 1935-39 monthly average, a point closely approaching the post­war peak of 204.0 attained in April of 1948. Retail trade, being the most heavily weighted component of the index, accounted for much of this rise. Even after the influence of price changes was removed, Texas sales were higher than at any time since April of last year. There was, however, a startling contradiction between changes exhibited by durable goods stores and the non· durable goods stores. Sales of hard goods rose 17% from last month and stand 23% above this time a year ago, while soft goods fell 8% from August and are 14% below September 1948. Now consumers tend to postpone purchases of durable merchandise during periods of price uncertainty while maintaining expenditures for more perishable commodi· ties at fairly constant levels. Hence the sharp jump in durable sales may be a significant indication that buyers anticipate no further price reductions, as well as the fact that purchasing power is still at a high level despite the inventory recession early this year. Survey of Current Business reports that for the United States the stability of retail trade since the first of 1949 has been the result of continued strength of sales of durable goods stores, particularly the sales of auto· mobiles. During this period the sales of nondurable goods stores in the United States declined, with the net result that total sales have shown little change with the slackened demand for nondurable balanced by an increase in the demand for durable goods. INDEX OF TEXAS BUSINESS ACTIVITY ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION PERCENT PERC~tg 2~ lg ~§~~~hltlO . .. V\._ ~./vwv ~ ,,,...v r f',F' ·v ..,. _rA.... __,,.v-v--A.../..rv !v Jo " __,.rr 200 200 I75 I50 175 150 I25 125 I00 100 75 75 50 50 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 194~ 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 The TllAB BUBlNllllB Rnlllw ls J>tt°l>Hahed by the Bureau of Bmtn..• Research, College of Bmlaess .Admlnlatratloa, The Unlvmltf ol resu. Entered as aeeend-elus matter on Kay 7, 1928 at the poetotllee at Austin, Texas, under the act of August U, 1912. TEXAS BUSl1'ESS REVIEW Department and apparel store sales were lower in September than in August after seasonal effects were removed. These sales are, of course, largely the soft goods discussed above. For the entire nation the opposite phenomenon occurred with the Federal Reserve Board's seasonally adjusted index rising seven points during the month. Manufacturing activity also contributed a substantial share of the rise in economic activity. The two series med by the Bureau to measure industrial production rose about 4% each from August of this year. The rise in refining activity, as measured by the index of crude oil runs to stills, can probably be traced to the recent increases in allowable petroleum production and to the increased demand for petroleum products predicted by the United States Bureau of the Mines. Other manu­facturing activity, as measured by the Bureau's index of industrial electric power consumption, may have in­creased to meet new orders of wholesalers and retailers who are now replenishing depleted inventories. For the United States, September witnessed a rise in industrial production, which reflected further gains in the output of basic commodities such as steel, lumber, textiles, paperboard, and automobiles. The rate of output in September was generally higher than in any month since May, although it did not reach the level of output attained during the fall of 1948. The index of industrial production compiled by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was 172% of the 1935-39 basis compared with 170 in August, with both indexes adjusted for eeasonal variation. With the work stoppages resulting from the steel and coal strikes, manufacturing activity for October has shown a sharp decline, with steel production dropping from 83% of capacity in September to 9% in the early part of October. It is obvious that when the statistical record for October is compiled the effect of the strikes on industrial output will be extremely pronounced. It will be important in using these data, therefore, to dis­tinguish between the effect of the changes in business that have resulted from the strikes and those resulting from the underlying cyclical movements of business. The expenditures of business concerns for capital goods in the form of plant and equipment outlays are estimated by the Department of Commerce and the Securities and Exchange Commission to be lower in the closing months of 1949 than in the same period of 1948. It is estimated that expenditures during the second half of 1949 will be 14% less than the all-time peak reached in the last half of 1948 with all major industries other than the railroads and electric and gas utilities showing reductions. This eatimated downturn in investment is an extremely import­ant factor in the business situation in Texas and in the Uni~ States, since any reduction in the spending of business for capital goods is felt almost immediately in ~erincome and consumer demand for goods. It is this element of the economy that shows the greatest insta­bility, and therefore the one that should be watched for lipa of a change in direction. INDEX OF MISCELLANEOUS FREIGHT CARLOADING$ IN THE SOUTHWEST . PERCENT 75 50 25 1 r929 1933 0 1941 1942 1943 1944 1946 1947 1948 1949 1$50 The one component of the general activity index which turned down last month was the index of miscellaneous freight carloadings in the Southwestern District. This index reflects inter-area trade as well as transportation and hence is in contradiction to the action of the com­posite index. However, Texas is only one of many states making up the Southwestern District, and so there may exist no real conflict in indications. Cash income to Texas farmers jumped 43% from August after the effects of seasonal patterns were removed and was in fact almost twice as great as for the average month so far this year. Farm prices remained about the same as in August so the explanation obviously lies in increased marketings, and scrutiny confirms this reason­ing. The cotton crop, which accounted for a large portion of total income, was abnormally large; prices received for cotton were only slightly below last year's but the price of cottonseed was considerably lower. Construction activity is another major industry which contributed heavily to the rise in the composite index. The index of urban building permits jumped 9% in September over August and stood 5% above a year ago. The country as a whole appears to be maintaining a building boom unprecedented in history as far as intensity and duration. This may well have been one of the factors which prevented the Winter-Spring recession from becom­ing more serious than it did. The level of prices has shown signs of turning slightly upward during recent weeks. The weekly wholesale price index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics fell steadily from the middle of 1948 until the end of last summer. At the end of September it was at the same level as at the end of August, and although it declined slightly during two of the weeks in October, it turned up sharply in the last week of October. However, the price indexes have in general reflected the rising trends of the past few months less than any of the other major barometers of business. A new index of business activity in Texas is presented in this issue of the Review. A compre­hensive article on the new composite index written by John R. Stockton, Professor of Business Sta­tistics, appears on page 24 of the Review. This index was compiled by Donald D. Tolliver as his thesis for the degree of Master in Business Administration at The University of Texas. Mr. Tolliver is now Instructor in Business Statistics at the University of Oklahoma. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW TRADE Retail Trade (The movement of goods into the hands of consumers is one of the fundamental series of statistical data on business activity, since for businea$ to be sound the volume of retail trade must be good. Durinw a period of inflation an increase in sales results from a rise in prices as well a:1 from 1\n increase i·n the amount of business. A more detailed anllllysis of retail sales trends is made in a Supp]e. ment to the Review on TeKaa Retail Trade. The fluduatlons in retl\il credit ratios are important conditioning factors of the volume of trade. Newspaper advertising linage and postal receipts are 1econdary trade indicators.) Although income has been hurt in some areas by lower farm prices and by strikes, customers' income, on the whole, remains large. Merchants who furnish merchan­dise at prices that customers consider fair are (loing a good business. Many customers are expecting and await­ing lower prices. However, retail prices in September averaged the smallest percentage decrease (0.1% ) in 11 consecutive months of decline. At 137.1 on Octo­ber 1 (Fairchild index, 1935-39=100), retail prices stood 3.4% down from a year ago. INDEX OF TEXAS RETAIL_SALES ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION PERCENT 1935 -39•100 PERCENT 400 400 1940 1941 1942 1943 -1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 The drop below 1948 dollar sales in Texas has been considerably less than the average decrease for the nation. Unit sales in many lines are nearly equal to those of the same months in 1948. They should hold near the 1948 levels for food and drug stores, restaurants, and filling stations. Automotive sales, which have con­tributed the most strength to the sales increases averaged among durable goods, may ease off slowly toward more normal demand levels. In Texas, retail sales estimated at $426,712 thousand averaged 0.9% above August but fell 2.1 % behind September 1948. Sales for the first nine months of 1949 dropped 3.0% from a year ago. Durable goods con- ESTIMATES OF TOTAL RETAIL SALES (in thousands of dollars) Percent change J an.-Sept. Sept. 1949 Sept. 1949 1949 Type of Sept. J an.-Sept. from from f rom store 1949 1949 Sept. 1948 Aug. 1949 J an.-Sept. 1948 TOTAL -------·..··-­426,712 3,645,246 - 2.1 + 0.9 -3.0 Durable goods ____ 186,763 1,412,894 +20.7 + 7.8 + 4.0 Nondurable goods 239,949 2,232,352 -14.6 - 3.9 - 7.0 tinued to yield sales increases over 1948, while non. durables decreased substantially. The index of total net sales (based on 1935-39 and adjusted for seasonal variation) rose five points to 325.l, highest point since December and also above the 1948 average index (320.5). Deflated to remove the effects of price changes, the adjusted total sales index (174.l) stood at its highest point since April 1948 and was above the 1948 average of 169.8. The index of durable goods sales climbed another 67 points to a new high point (475.9) as did the index of automotive sales (54.6.0). But the nondurables index fell 23 points from August to 253.0, lowest point since March 1946. RETAIL SALES TRENDS BY KINDS OF BUSINESS Source : Dureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce Percent change Number of Jan.-Sept. reporting Sept. 1949 Sept. 1949 1949 establish-from from from Business ments Sept. 1948 Aug. 1949 Jan.-Sept. 1948 Apparel stores --------­----------­271 - 11.3 +24.8 -6.9 Automotive stores ---------------­ 252 +22.2 - 4.7 +16.6 Country general stores -------­ 55 - 1.9 + 6.5 - 6.3 Department stores ------------­ 102 - 6.2 + 18.o -5.2 Drug stores ---·-----·-----------------­ 177 - 0.6 + 0.3 - 0.2 Eating and drinking places 111 - 8.8 - 2.5 - 4.0 Filling stations ----------------------752 + 0.6 - 5.1 + 2.6 Flor ists ----------------------­-·---------­ 52 - 7.4 + 3.0 - 3.3 F ood stores ·--------------------------­ 219 - 0.1 + 2.1 + 2.2 FuTniture and household ---­160 - 11.6 - 2.2 - 6.3 General merchandise stores 71 - 8.5 + 11.2 -5.5 J ewelry stores ----··­-------­--------­ 44 - 9.5 + 2.7 -13.6 Liquor stores -----------------------­ 15 + 0.7 - 2.6 - 6.4 Lumber, building m aterial. and hardware stores -·---·-­ 261 - 9.7 - 2.0 -16.2 Office supply stores ------------­ 40 + 2.0 + 11.4 -3.5 Among sales indexes for individual lines, those for drug and food stores and for filling stations chan~ed little. Other indexes fell heavily: eating and drinking places, 11 points; furniture, 31; building materials, 42; jewelry, 44; general merchandise, 46; department stores, 75; apparel stores, 101. Only automotive and drug stores showed indexes higher than their 1948 averages. The only substantial sales increase over Septemb~r 1948 was 22.2% for automotive stores. Decreases m other lines were as large as 11.3% for apparel shops and 11.6% for furniture and household stores. Furthermore, after adjusting for the usual seasonal changes between months, automotive stores reported 37.6% larger sales than might be expected seasonally, while apparel stores dropped 30.l% lower than expected, department stores 24.5%, and general merchandise stores, 17.0%. By districts (see map under Agriculture), the Lower Rio Grande Valley averaged sales increases of 17.7% and the Southern High Plains, 10.4% over September 1948. Six of the other ten districts had decreases. Of the 31 cities reported individually, 18 averaged sales in­creases for September over September 1948, and 16 for the nine months over the same period a year ago. Largest sales increases in September were in McAllen (37.4%), Lockhart (27.4% ), Lamesa (24.2% ), and Waco TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW RETAIL SALES TRENDS BY CITY-SIZE GROUPS Advertising linage in 35 Texas newspapers averaged Source: Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Bureau only 0.9% over September 1948, although 9.8% above of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce August 1949. However, only eight of the papers showed decreases in September from 1948. Percent change POSTAL RECEIPTS Number of Jan.-Sept. reporting Sept. 1949 Sept. 1949 1949 establish-from from from Percent change Population ments Sept. 1948 Aug. 1949 J an.-Sept. 1948 Sept. 1949 Sept. 1949 Sept. Aug. Sept. from from Over 100,000 ----····-----1,438 + 7.6 -0.4 -1.6 City 1949 1949 1948 Sept. 1948 Aug. 1949 60.000 to 100,000 -------222 -0.3 + 2.8 + 2.3 TOTAL ................ $3,670,245 $3,628,729 $3,249,582 + 12.9 + 1.1 2,500 to 50,000 ----·-·····--857 + 2.0 + 3.0 -0.8 Under 2,500 -------· 152 + 2.2 + 1.7 -3.7 Abilene ·-··-····-··· 40,655 37,988 32,830 + 23.8 + 7.0 An,arillo -········­76,042 82,817 68,265 + 11.4 8.2 Austin ----------------­168,753 158,194 158,146 + 6.7 + 6.7 (18.6%). Sales leaders for the nine months were Beaumont ------------59,727 61,048 50,608 + 18.0 2.2 Big Spring ......... . 11,990 13,013 10,271 + 16.7 7.9 McAllen (15.8%), Waco (11.4%), El Paso (8.9%), Borger -----------------9,058 7,381 7,765 + 16.7 + 22.7 and Lockhart ( 8.7% ) . Brownsville ______ 14,323 15,278 12,131 + 18.1 -6.3 The ratio 0£ credit sales to total net sales in September Brownwood ----------11,807 10,991 11,541 + 2.3 + 7.4 ___ ----------------8,535 10,748 9,008 5.3 -20.6 for 79 Texas department and apparel stores averaged Br yan Childress ··-···-······ 3,894 4,151 3,683 + 5.7 -6.2 67.2% in 1949, 64.6% in 1948, 59.5% in 1947, and Cisco ------------------3,516 2,749 3,318 + 6.0 + 27.9 55.9% in 1946. Largest percentages were in Dallas 6,797 5,844 6,002 + 13.2 + 16.3 Cleburne ··-·····-··­ (74.3%), Beaumont (68.3%), and Fort Worth (65.0%), Corpus Christi .... 74,910 80,576 66,850 + 12.1 7.0 and, by types, department stores ( 67.0% ) . The average Corsicana ·····----10,308 10,580 9,013 + 14.4 2.6 Dallas ·······--········· 1,016,926 982,439 837,995 + 21.4 + 3.5 collection ratio for September stood at 46.9% in 1949, DP.I Rio ··--··-········ 5,614 5,728 5,205 + 7.9 2.0 49.1% in 1948, 54.2% in 1947, and 60.0% in 1946. Denison ··············-9,086 9,302 9,557 -4.9 2.3 Largest collections were in Austin (53.9%), Lubbock Denton ·······-····--19 ,538 13,457 14,013 + 39.4 + 45.2 (52.7%), and Waco (51.1%), and men's clothing stores Edinburg ··-··-····-7 ,44 1 6,094 5,732 + 29.8 + 22.1 El Paso ·-·····--····· 127 ,837 126,306 111,725 + 14.4 + 1.2 (53.3%). Only Lubbock and San Antonio bettered their Fort W orth ··-······ 371,201 343,254 322,559 + 15.1 + 8.1 September 1948 collection ratios. Gainesville -······-6,338 5,364 6,189 + 2.4 + 18.2 Galveston ········-···· • 51,978 55,821 51,229 + 1.5 -6.9 CRED IT RATIOS IN DEPARTMENT AND APPAREL STORES Gladewater ·····-·-4,476 3,787 4,067 + 10.l + 18.2 Greenville 13,320 14,270 12,615 + 5.6 6.7 (in percent) Harlingen --·······-15,062 16,685 14,500 + 3.9 9.7 Henderson ····-······ 6,238 6,926 5,697 + 9.5 9.9 Houston ·······-·-····· 619,058 602,119 568,877 + 8.8 + 2.8 Ratio of R atio of J acksonville ··---6,555 6,428 6,162 + 6.4 + 2.0 credit sales collections to Number to net sales* outstandingst Kerrville ····-······-5,687 6,779 5,629 + 1.0 8.0 of Lamesa --·--····--6,619 5,387 5,216 + 26.9 + 22.9 reporting Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. Laredo -···-··---· 15,543 16,337 15,356 + 1.2 -4.9 Classification stores 1949 1948 1949 1948 Lockhart ··-···-··--2,220 2,508 1,872 + 18.G -11.5 L ongview --·-······· 16,206 17,560 14,153 + 14.5 -12.7 67.2 64 .6 46.9 49.1 ALL STORES ---····-·--79 Lubbock ----·-54,656 55,369 51,993 + 5.1 1.3 =================== IJY CITIES: Lufkin ------····-9,124 9,588 8,218 + 11.0 4.8 55.9 53.3 53.9 56.8 McAllen -·--··-··--10,483 11 ,000 10,986 -4.6 4.7 Austin -----------­ 68.3 67.4 46.1 52.4 Marshall --·--·-· 12,912 13,385 11,502 + 12.3 3.5 Beaumont -------·--·--3 45.9 43.4 46.9 48.0 Midland ····-········-18,798 19,247 18,316 + 2.6 2.3 Cleburne ---------·-··­ 49.1 56.5 Nacogdoches ···-6,374 6,682 5,908 4.6 Corpus Christi --·····-·-··-­59.9 58.1 + 7.9 New Braunfels ___ 7,166 6,941 5,472 Dallas ----------····-14 74.3 73.1 47.3 49.4 + 31.0 + 3.2 El Paso ·----------3 58.1 56.6 39.8 41.7 Orange ------­9,429 9,717 10,508 -10.3 3.0 Fort Worth 65.0 62.7 47.5 48.9 Odessa -·-··-­19,840 19,264 19,804 + 0.2 + 3.0 Palestine ·------7,547 7,939 8,434 10.5 Houston ----------8 57.4 57.2 34.3 35.2 -4.9 Pampa ______ 10,530 50.4 52.7 10,545 9,533 Lubbock ---------3 56.1 44.2 + 10.5 0.1 San Antonio -------··-3 64.3 59.8 50.3 48.7 Paris ------­11,745 10,028 11,967 -1.9 + 17.1 Waco ----------5 58.2 56.7 51.1 55.0 Plainview --------8,455 8,949 7,666 + 10.3 -5.5 Port Arthur ___ BY TYPE OF STORE 24,962 27,208 24,869 + 0.4 -8.3 Department stores ·------32 67.0 65.4 43.0 44.5 San Angelo ·-······· 29,714 33,148 29,542 + 0.6 -10.4 Dry 11oods-apparel stores _ 7 52.8 48.4 46.9 41.3 San Antonio 328,851 345,956 309,961 + 6.1 -4.9 Women's specialty ____ 22 56.9 55.1 52.5 53.3 Seguin --------­5,510 4,747 5,756 4.3 + 16.1 Men's clothing stores _____ 18 61.6 58.1 53.3 57.3 Sherman -----· 16,400 18,176 15,564 + 5.4 -9.8 13 Y VOLUME OF NET SALES Snyder -·--··· 4,416 4,283 2,315 + 90.8 + 3.1 (1 948) 10,658 9,256 9,453 + 12.7 + 15.1 Sweetwater ____ Over $2,500,000 ----··--25 67.0 65.8 43.7 45.3 Temple ·---··--­18,451 17,975 15,826 + 16.6 + 2.6 S1,ooo,ooo to $2,500,000 __ 16 55.4 51.7 49.1 49.4 Texarkana -------­34,419 41,694 30,616 + 12.4 -17.4 $500,000 to $1,000,000 ___ 16 53.0 50.3 48.9 56.5 Texas City ··---­7,338 8,856 7,421 -1.1 -17.1 Less than $500,000 ·-----22 47.8 46.8 46.6 49.9 Tyler-----37,856 33,928 31,653 + 19.6 + 11.6 Vernon ____ 7,508 6,687 6,766 + 11.0 + 12.3 Victoria -----11,735 10,609 10,378 + 13.1 • Credit sales divided by net sales. + 10.6 W aco _____ 71,334 80,129 67,933 + 5.0 -11.0 tCollections during the month divided by the total accounts unpaid Wichita F alls _ 46,777 50,114 33,443 + 39.9 -6.7 on the first of the month. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW Sales of gasoline subject to tax totaled 214,484,816 gallons in August, or 2.3% above July and 9.7% over August 1948. Sales to the federal government amounted to 26,356,728 gallons, or 38.0% below July and 42.6% under a year earlier. The seasonally adjusted index of gasoline sales (1935-39=100) stood at 208.9 in August against 190.4 a year before. Visitors at State parks in September numbered 210,582 in 74,168 cars, or 0.4•% fewer visitors but in 15.9% more ~ars than a year earlier. Out-of-State cars were 45. 7% more numerous. Assisted by increased rates, postal receipts of 62 cities averaged 1.1 % over August and 12.9% above September 194.S. Nine cities reported decreases from 1948, against 13 in August and 19 in July. Increases ran as larg~ as 90.3% (Snyder). The adjusted index of postal receipts stood at 286.9 in August against 254.8 a year earlier. Wholesale Trade (Wholesale sales and inventories represent the movement of goods to retailers and when compared with the changes in retail sales indicate wh'ether &tock& in the hands of retailers are being main­ tained at a constant level or are being allowed to increase or decrease. The information on inventories of wboles.afers giv~s an indication of the availability of goods to retailers, which is a signifi­ cant factor in the business situation.) Wholesale sales in Texas showed no change in August from July; however, there was a 10% decrease in August under sales for the same month a year ago. Only two groups, drugs and sundries with the exclusion of liquor (12% ) and tobacco (3% ), listed sales increases. De­ clines ranging from 7% in grocery sales to 35% in auto­ motive supply sales were registered from August 1948. A 4% decrease from July to August 1949 occurred in total wholesale inventories for the State, while a slightly larger decrease ( 6%) was apparent from August of last year. A 22% decline in electrical goods inven­ tories was almost entirely responsible for the decline in total inventories in August from the previous month. No chanrre occurred in the inventories of automotive supply, hard;are, and machinery, equipment, and supplies (ex­ cept electrical) groups from July to August 1949, and three groups showed small gains. PERCENTAGE CHANGES IN WHOLESALERS' SALES AND INVENTORIES Source: Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce Sales Inventories Business Aug. 1949 Aug. 1949 from from Aug. 1948 J uly 1949 Aug. 1949 Aug. 1949 from from Aug. 1948 July 1949 TOTAL ---···· -····-·-·-·----·-·-------······--10 -6 -4 Automotive supplies ····-----··-··--· -35 + I -19 Electrical equipment ·------·-··-­-11 H ardware ----··---·-·------·----······ -18 8 + 8 - 5 6 -22 0 Machinery, equipment, and supplies (except electrical) _ -25 + 50 + 27 0 Drugs and sundr ies* ---------········ + 12 + 12 + 15 + 3 Groceries ------------------­------------­-7 Tobacco products -----·-····--···--­+ 3 All other ----------··--··--··--­-13 5 + 6 + 3 -7 -19 -13 + 4 + *Excludes liquor departments. Foreign Trade (Tonnare firurea for export ahlpmenta from the principal porta of the State provide an accurate physical meuure of the Cll?l'Qt volume of foreip export trade. Value fil'Urea for exports and i.. ports, however, represent a more common measurement of fonlp trade tranaactlona, but they are subject to adjustment for price changes.) Exports from Texas ports continued to decline in July, amounting to $23.3 million. This represents 8 decline of 8.6% from June 1949 and a decline of 29.0% from July 1948. Imports in July amounting to $19.9 million represent a decrease of 29.9% from the pre· ceding month but an increase of 8.7% over the imports of July 1948. Total exports of merchandise for the United Stat~ in August fell to $881 million compared to $897 million in July 1949 and $992 million in August 1948. Imports amounting to $491 million represent an increase of $36 million over the preceding month but a decrease from the $606 million imported in August 1948. The devaluation of the British pound on September 18 was followed by devaluation in about 30 other countries. Two countries in this hemisphere included in this group are Canada, which devalued her currency by 10%, and Argentina, which devalued as much as 47%. Although it is too early to evaluate the result of devalu· ation, the British Treasury reports a $84 million gain in exchange reserves during the last 12 days of September as compared with a loss of $220 million in reserves for the third quarter of 1949 as a whole. This reversal may well be a nonrecurring item representing payments which had been delayed in anticipation of devaluation. The reduced import surplus (from 59 million pounds sterling in August to 36 pounds sterling in September) cannot be ascribed to devaluation but must be due primarily to import restrictions put into effect this summer. On October 10, the State Department announced tariff reductions which had been negotiated with 10 countries at the recent Annecy Conference, called by the signatories to the General Agreement on Tariff and Trade (GATT). At the same time tariff reductions in those 10 countries were made on goods exported from the United States. An announcement of further reductions in connection with the negotiations with other countries is expected. FOREIGN TRADE OF TE~ PORTS (in million of dollars) Source: Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce Percent change Customs district July 1949 June 1949 July 1948 July 1949 July 1949 from from July 1948 June 190 EXPORTS, TOTAL ........ 23.3 25.5 32.8 -29.0 9.1 El Paso 2.0 2.2 2.2 -9.1 8.6 Laredo ----------------------21.3 23.3 30.6 -80.4 IMPORTS, TOTAL 19.9 28.4 18.3 8.7 -29.9 --------+ El Paso ------------------1.6 2.2 2.6 -38.5 -27.8 Galveston 11.9 14.5 9.7 + 22.7 -17.9 Laredo 3.3 9.3 4.9 -32.7 -64.6 3.1 2.4 I.I + 29.2 Sabine --------------------­ TEXAS BUSINE.55 REVIEW PRODUCTION Manufacturing en--"-of -afactarlns actint)o In any induatrial area la a ..,...._ __... of tlae c:laans• la ltusinraa activity. Tbe vol­-el .................. -nfactareil tends to fluctuate more Ylo­~.._ doe _..._ of -ndunihle rooda anch as foods, and may -to Indicate doaasea la the busineaa situation at an early date. .._-manufoctmin~ hHlustries YB1"l' tt~larly with the seaso.--.s, .... ,_..... mast be talret1 Into consideration In interpretin:r the...,_,_ham montlt to month.) Industrial activitv in Texas durin~ SeDtember remained stPJtilY and even registned sli!!ht e-ains over the pre­ceding month and over SeDtember 1948. ,,.P. index of influstrial f'lectric power consumntion (1935-39=100). which is adju.,ted for seasonal changes, stood at 307.8 in SP.Dtemher. a level over three timf's the prwwar averatt. Since this particular index tends to reflect over-all production activity, it is worth noting that it is once al!ain nearintz an all-time high after a mild slump durin!! the sorine-months of this vear. The Bureau's index of industrial electric power con­sumption is the best available measure of the fluctuations in m111ufacturin~ activitv in Texas, and the chart below is published for. the purpose of !'howing the chane-es in this component of the business situation. The consump­tion of electric power by industrial users inevitably 8uctuates with their volume of business and, therefore, becomes a measure of the changes in the volume of busi­neaJ of industrial users of power. The chart shows the rapid expansion of the indu!r on the rom•trnction scenP durin!! ~Pntember \\"RS hoPsin!!. Residential construction wa·s th<> 0nh· rh-~ification ·-which showed an incrrnse OYer September 1948. All classifications, inrludin~ residen· tial. reflected searnnal trend~ in decreases from August. The index of building permits (1935-39=100), ad­justed for seasonal rnriation, rose to i17.5 in September, or an increase of 9.4% o\-er August. This figure indi­cates that the dollar value of construction was well over se\·en times the prewar ]eye] during September. The indPx of the mine of building permits in Texas cities is shown graphically in the next column. This chart records the changes that have occurred in building activity in Texas and gives a picture of the boom through which the building industry has been going since the end of the war. Construction contract awards slumped 61.7% below August 1949, althou~h the permits, in sharp contrast, were 23.0% over August. Permits usually are issued well before construction begins and therefore reflect more current trends. However, contracts for new housing totaled 40.2% more in September than in the same month of last year. Cities in Texas with building permits valued at more than $1 million during September included Houston, Dallas. Fort Worth, San Antonio, Austin, Amarillo, El Paso, Tyler, Waco, and Corpus Christi. NonrcsidPntial housing in the past few months has accounted for the most abrupt change in trend. Earlier in the year and in the latter part of 1948 business and industrial construction consistently held a wide margin in the valuation of construction contract awards. Awards this September, however, were 37.l % less than in Septem­ber of 1948 and were onlv s]ightlv above the total value of housing awards. . ' · Engineering awards had a slow month in September, which. however, refleC'ts no trend since this type of work characteristically fluctuates heavily and must be observed over a much longer period in order to reflect more accurately the level of activity. BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED BY CLASS OF CONSTRUCTION• (value in thousands) Sept. Aug. Percent 1949 1949 chan ge TOTAL ---------·----·--­ $39,928 $43,155 7.5 New construction ---·­-·--··----·---·- 35,639 36,403 2.1 Residential ----··------­------·-·· 22,571 24,011 6.0 Nonresidential -----­---------­ 13,068 12,392 + 5.5 Additions, alterations, and repairs 4,289 6,752 -36.5 •Only building !or which building permits were issued within the ir,corporated area of the city is included. Federal contracts are excluded. BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED BY CITY-SIZE GROUPS* (value in thousands ) P opulationt TOTAL -·--·-----·---··----·-----­ Over 100,000 ---·--·----------------------­50 ,000-100,000 ---------·-------------­25,000-50,000 -----·--·-------··-·---·------· Below 25,000 ----------------·-··--·-­ Sept. Aug. P ercent 1949 1949 change $39,928 $43,155 -7.5 18,247 21,707 -16.0 8,889 11 ,755 -24.4 3,852 3,379 + 14.0 8,940 6,314 + 41.6 *Only building for which building permits were issued within the incorporated area of the city is inelu<\ed. Federal contracts are excluded. t1940 Qensus, . TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS Source: Texas Contractor Percent change Sept. 1949 Sept. 1949 Type of Sept. Aug. Sept. from from building 1949 1949 1948 Sept. 1948 Aug. 1949 T OTAL ---·----­$ 41,432,348 $108,126,264 $ 49,410,198 -16.1 -61.7 Engineerin g __ 6,694,127 26,910,188 7,602,622 -26 .4 -79.2 Nonresidential 18,560,763 42 ,599,576 29 ,485,298 -37.1 -66.4 Residentia l ____ 17,277,468 38,6 16,601 12,322 ,278 + 40.2 -55.3 Public Utilities (The consumption of electric power by Industrial concems Is • measure of the volume ef Industrial activity, since It may be as­sumed that the amount of power used will be directly related to manufacturinir volume. Reoldential and commercial power consump­ttcm show a seasonal variation due to the changing amount of llirhtlnir needed.) Production of electric energ;y in Texas continued its slow but steady increase. The output in Au~ust was 10.7% above that of August 1948 while the increase for the nation as a whole was only 2.4%. The chart below shows the index of electric power consumption in Texas. This index is compiled by the Bureau of Business Research from reports submitted monthly by electric utilities operating in Texas and measures the fluctuations in the consumption of electric power for all uses in the State. Since the consumption of power varies with the seasons, the data are adi usted for the normal seasonal fluctuations and the index repre­ sents the changes that have resulted from other than seasonal factors. INDEX .OF ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION IN TEXAS ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL \IAR1ATION, 1935 -39•100 PERCENT .--450 400 00 ..,.' = IAAA' . 300 ... 250 - .~~"..,,. v w 200 r _... 150 150 100 50 -.­ 1929 "' 1933 1937 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 t946 !St47 1948 1949 t~O The greatest percentage gain in consumption of electric power was made by the residential consumers, who took 17.8% more power in September 1949 than in the same month of 1948. In general, the increase of total con­sumption of power by all types of users paralleled increases of power output. ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION• (in thousands of kilowatt hours ) P er cent change U se Sept. 1949 Aug. 1949 Sept. 1948 Sept. 1949 Sep t . 1949 from from Sept. 1948 Aug. 1949 TOTAL 747,728 739,182 692,135 + 8.0 + 1.2 Commercial -------··· 177,968 176,862 157,446 +13.o + 1.2 Industrial ---------·­ 314,946 308,792 309,847 + 1.6 + 2.0 Residential -------·· 139,126 137,142 118,118 + 17.8 + 1.4 Other -­-----­---­ 115,689 117,396 106,725 + 8.4 - 1.6 *Prepared from reports of 10 ~leetr!c p9w~r WmPaqiell to th!! Bureau of Business Research. -.." . ­ AGRICULTURE Income (The amount of Income received by farmers is a complete ­ure of the prosperity of aariculture, taklna Into account both • volume of products sold and the prices received. Since the market. lnirs of many products are concentrated In certain seasons of "9 year, It is important that the data be adjusted for seeaonal ,,..... tlons In order to show the basic chaaaea In the situation of qrlaJ.ture.) September cash farm income was 19.0% or SIOO million greater than for August. This upswing was due to the normal marketing routines of farm operators. The chart below shows the fluctuations in the Bureau's index of cash farm income, after adjustment for seasonal variation. The rise in income during the war and the still greater expansion following the end of the war are measured by this index, which reflects the changes in the major part of income received by Texas farmers. The Northern High Plains, the Southern Texas Prairies, and the Lower Rio Grande Valley showed increases in total cash income above those for September 1948. For the State as a whole, cash returns are down 3.9% from last year. Greatest decreases in cash return were in the Southern High Plains and in the adjoining region to the south, the Trans-Pecos area. The 300% increase for the Lower Rio Grande Valley over September 1948 was due to the abnormally large marketings of cotton within the region. Increases over the same month for the preceding year ranged from 322% for District lOA down to 23.2% for the Black and Grand Prairies. The greatest percentage decrease was registered for the Trans-Pecos area. FARM CASH INCOME Indexes, 1935-39= 100, Amount, Jan.-Sept. adjusted for seasonal variation (in thousands) September August September District 1949 1949 1948 1949 1948 TEXAS ----·----­ 677.3 473.0 669 .1 $1,067,116 $1,110,949 1-N -----------·---­ 440.1 655 .6 605.0 160,602 117,070 1-S -------------­-· 492.3 210.3 620.6 50,241 76,904 2 ----·-------­-------­ 356.6 250.5 447.1 100,646 105,128 3 ---···-----------­-253.4 219. 1 335.2 50,557 63,183 4 --------·-----·------· 743.6 421.9 603 .8 175,528 181,387 ----···----­--­·-··· -­ 844.6 566.5 631.4 63,794 67,188 ·----·--·-·········-· 566.5 262.6 859.2 28,235 38,722 7 ------·-····--····---­ 220.6 256.3 266 .4 60,292 80,701 8 --------­------------­ 545.2 521.3 284. 0 138,294 133,706 9 ------­-----------· l ,493.9 830.5 989.6 88,461 92,020 10 ----------·----------­ 524.1 553.6 329. 9 37,069 61,317 10-A ----·------·---­ 525.8 2, 184.5 124. 6 118,497 108,673 TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW Marketings (Tlie lnel of farm Income la affected not onlJ' b,. chansea In ...... ...t i.,. the Yolume of product& farmers aend to market ln a 11--tli. Data on ahipmenta of farm products muat alao be ... ta ......... the chan•.. ln the level of farm income from ....._tli.) Total carload shipments of livestock were well up over August but were 24.4% below September a year ago. Hogs showed the only decline for the month. "Intra· lltate less Fort Worth" shipments made a much greater gain than "Interstate and Fort Worth" loadinj!;s. SHIPMENTS OF LIVESTOCK (in carloads)• Source: Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Bureau ar Agricultural Ewnomics, U. S. Department or Agriculture Percent change Sept. 1949 Sept. 1949 Sept. Aug. Sept. from from Classifica:.:io:O:= = ==.:C91::.491948==I 9=4Au=g=19=4= t:.:n'=== l::.94'=::=::9..::'====='=S=ept=.==8==. =9 TOTAL SHIPMENTS 6,707 4,887 7,652 -24.4 + 16.8 Cattle 3,461 2,975 4,789 - 27.7 + 16.3 Calves 846 618 1,281 - 34.0 + 63.3 Hogs Sheep 430 970 494 900 600 982 -- 14.0 1.2 -13.0 + 7.8 INTERSTATE P LUS FORT WORTH -­ 5,174 4,651 6,929 - 25.3 + 11.2 Cattle 3,282 2,900 4,330 - 24 .2 + 13.2 Calves 768 477 1,119 - 31.4 + 61.0 HOD 420 487 487 - 13.8 -13.8 Sheep 704 787 998 - 29.1 -10.5 INTRASTATE MINUS FORT WORTHt - -· 633 236 823 - 35.2 + 125.8 Cattle 179 75 459 - 61.0 +138.7 Calves 78 41 162 - 61.9 + 90.2 H~ 10 7 13 - 23.1 + 42.9 Sheep 266 113 189 + 40.7 + 135.4 •Rail·car basis : cattle, 30 head per car; calves, 60; hogs, 80 ; and sheep, 250. tlntrastate truck shipments are not included. Fort Worth shipments are w mbined with interstate forwardings in order that the bulk or market disappearance for the month may be shown. RAIL SHIPMENTS OF FRUITS AND VEGETABLES (in carloads) Source: Compiled from reports of Bureau of A1trlcultural Economics, U. S. Department of Agriculture Percent change Item Sept. 1949 Aug. 1949 Sept. 1948 Sept. 1949 Sept. 1949 from from Sept. 1948 Aug. 1949 TOTAL ---·--------67 756 124 -46.0 -91.l Lettuce ·--··­·-­-··-­ 2 Onions 44 55 4 - 20.0 Peppers ------­ 2 P otatoes ------·--·--­ 25 96 110 - 77.3 - 74.0 Sweet potatoes -----­ 3 Ail other ----·---··­ 576 Total rail shipments of fruits and vegetables show a 46.0% drop when compared with last September and a 91.1% decrease as compared with August 1949. The onion harvest extended into September and was respon· sible for a large increase in onion shipments over September 1948. Lettuce shipments should increase in October due to harvesting in the Hereford area. News releases report considerable damage to the eggplant crop in District 10-A . RAIL SHIPMENTS OF POULTRY AND EGGS FROM TEXAS STATIONS (in carloads ) Source: Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Bureau of Agricult ural Economics, U. S. Department of Agriculture Sept. Aug. Sept. Classification 1949 1949 1948 Chickens --------·--··-·-··-··­ 3 T urkeys -------·---··---·----­ 7 Eggs-<1hell equivalent• --·---··--­ 24 56 90 Shell ----------·-····--·­ 0 0 2 F rozen ----------­- - ---­ 4 4 24 Dr ied --­---· 2 6 5 •Dried eggs and frozen eggs are converted to a shell-egg equivalent on the followin2' basis : I rail-carload of dried eggs = 8 carloads of shell eggs and I carload of frozen e!l'gs =2 carloads of shell eg1ts. INTERSTATE RECEIPTS OF EGGS BY RAIL AT TEXAS STATIONS (in carloads) Sour ce: Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Bureau of Agricultural Economics, U.S. Department of A1triculture Sept. Aug. Sept. Type 1949 1949 1948 TOTAL RECEIPTS-SHELL EQUIVALENT• ·-····----·----13 46 Shell ____ ================= 3 5 30 F rozen --------0 4 Dried --------·--·---·-­ •Dried eggs and frozen eggs are converted to a shell-ei?g eQuivalent on the following basis: 1 rail-carload of dried eggs = 8 carloads of shell eggs and I carload of frozen eggs = 2 carloads of shell 1!11'11'.•· TEXAS BUSINE.5S REVIEW Total intrastate receipts of eggs (shell equivalent) continued the downward trend established in August. Total receipts are down 80.4% as compared with Sep­tember 1948. Only turkeys showed an increase over September 1948 in rail shipments from Texas stations. INDEXES OF PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS (190~14 =100) Source : Bureau of Agricultural Economics, U. S. Department of Agriculture Percent change Indexes (unadjusted) Sept. 1949 Aug. 1949 Sept. 1948 Sept. 1949 Sept. 1949 from from Sept. 1948 Aug. 1949 ALL FARM PRODUCTS -··-­262 263 309 - 15.2 0.4 All crops ------------·--------------­218 Food 2'rains ---------·-·-----------­207 223 217 250 217 -- 12.8 4.6 2.4 4.6 Feed g rains and hay ----------­140 152 191 - 26.7 7.9 Potatoes and sweet potatoes 188 187 218 - 13.8 + 0.6 Fruit ----------·-·······­---------­ 28 28 75 -62.7 0.0 Truck crops -------­----·-------­260 260 366 - 29.0 0.0 Cotton ---------··--·-·-----­------·----­236 240 246 - 3.7 1.7 Oil-bearing crops ----­--··---­-208 214 321 - 35.2 2.8 Livestock and products ----·-­---­319 816 886 - 17.4 + 1.3 Meat animals --------------­--­362 865 476 - 23.9 0.8 Dairy products ----··--·------­246 P oultry and eggs ---------------­274 238 248 276 288 - 10.5 4.9 + 3.4 + 10.6 W ool ------------------------­329 323 304 + 8. 2 + 1.9 Prices (The prices received by farmer• constitute one of the elemento of farm cub Income. Changes In prices are of primary concern to farmers and all busineaamen re)yins on the farm market. Farmera are alao concerned with the prices which they have to pay for com­modities uaed in family maintenance and production alnce th••• pricea help to determine their real Income.) Prices for potatoes, livestock products, dairy products, poultry, eggs, and wool rose slightly during the past month with eggs and poultry showing the greatest in­crease. Only wool commands a higher return when prices for this September are compared with those for the same month last year. The unadjusted index for all farm prices dropped one point during September and a similar decrease was reported during July. A drop of 47 points has been recorded from September 1948, and farm prices are at their lowest level since September 1946. Corn brought $1.03 per bushel, down 20 cents from mid-August, and was at the lowest price level since January 1943. Rice dropped 50 cents per bushel hut will probably show an increase for next month because of the recent storm damage along the Gulf Coast forcing revision of previous price estimates. Cold Storage (In both period& of ahortas•• and aurpluaea, the atorase ••ltll•11 of periabable food product• are importaflt becauae of their effoct H prices. The seasonal nature of farm products la in part offset 1iJ the accumulation of atocka In period• of peak .,..oduction to llo withdrawn in perioda of low production. Deviation• from the normal levels of holdings will exert preHure oa the price atructure.) Holdings of frozen vegetables and frozen fruit were above those for August. This is a seasonally expected increase. Holdings of creamery butter, evaporated milk, dried eggs, and hides were also up from last month. In general, holdings showed decreases from September 1948. Cotton (The cotton balance aheet abowa the haalc demand and aunlJr factors affecting cotton which le an outstanding element In the farm Income of the State.) The change in the cotton situation from September to October is marked first of all by an increase in the Government's estimate of production in the United States by 503 thousand bales. The cotton balance October 1 was 18,894 thousand bales which was an increase over the balance last year of about 2.3 million bales. The second fact is that the world supply of cotton for year has not increased as much as the United States supply due to the fact that foreign consumption last year exceeded foreign production. The carryover in the United States on August 1 was 1.9 million bales more than last year whereas world carryover increased only about a half million bales. The few reports available so far indicate that foreign production of cotton this year will not be greatly different from last. Cotton consumption in the United States since August 1 is about 100 thousand bales less than for the same period last year, but exports are more nearly the same amount. Foreign consumption is expected to increase provided cotton can be made available. The outlook now is for exports from the United States to be a little less than last year. Drastic changes in the world political situation are the greatest worry in the world cotton situa­ tion at the present. COTTON BALANCE SHEET F OR THE UNITED S-fATES AS OF OCTOBER 1, 1949 (in thousands of running bales except as noted) Year Car ryover Aug. l Imports to Oct. l * Government estimate as of Oct. l• Total Consump­tion to Oct. 1 Exports to Oct. 1 Total Balance as of Oct. I 1940-4L----·----------­·-·--­---------­---.. 10,596 14 12,741 23,361 1,289 166t 1,446 21,906 1941--4 2­·-----·-·------------··---··-···--­-··-··­ 12,376 72 11,061 23,509 1,760 268 2,018 21,491 1942-43-----------·--------·-----·---·---·--···-· 10,690 55 13,818 24,468 1,885 226 2,110 22,353 1943-4 4--·---·--------­--··----··------· ·--·· 10,687 31 11,478 22,196 1,715 448 2,168 20,038 194 4-45·-·---­---------------·---·-­--·--­ 10,727 44 11,953 22,724 1,631 72 1,703 21,021 1945-46--------------------·----­-·-·-·---­ 1,160 79 9,779 21,018 1,439 438 1,872 19,U& 1946-47---------------­---···-­--·----···-·­194 7-48·--· ----·­--------­---­------·-----­ 7,522 2,521 69 6t 8,724 11,608 16,806 14,084 1,674 1,438 664 37t 2,328 1,476 18,977 12,559 1948-49.-----·------------··--------------·· 3,082 9t 16,079 18,170 1,468 115t 1,683 16,587 1949-50______________·----·------­--------·-­ 4,985 6t 15,446 20,436 1,874 168t 1,6(2 18,894 •Bales, 478 pounds net. t T o September 1 only. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW LOCAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS Percent change Percent change Sept. 1949 Sept. 1949 Sept. 1949 Sept. 1949 September from from September from from City and item 1949 Sept. 1948 Aug. 1949 City and item 1949 Sept. 1948 Aug. 1949 ABILENE: BEAUMONT: Retail sales of independent stores__ - 9.3 + 15.9 Retail sales of independent stores. _ _ _ - 9.7 + 5.5 Department and apparel store sales_ Postal receipts --­· $ 40,655 -1.7 + 23.8 + 43.5 + 7.0 Apparel stores -­---····-·--·· Automotive stores -------­-----­­ -27.7 + 2.9 + 36.6 + 2.7 Building permits $ Bank debits to individual accounts (thousands) $ End-of-month deposits (thousands) • $ Annual rate of deposit turnover __ 885,495 31,282 37,269 10.2 - 5.6 12.8 10.9 1.0 22.0 + 4.3 + 3.8 + 5.2 Eating and drinking places ----­Food stores ----------------­Furniture and household stores ---­General merchandise stores --­----­ -10.1 -5.8 -11.l -20.2 0.9 1.6 12.6 + 8.1 Air express shipments -­---­Unemployment ---------­Placements in employment ---­Nonagricultural civilian labor force_ 194 1,280 604 18,680 + 4.5 + 42.2 + 14.0 + 1.6 + 52.8 -26.9 + 13.3 2.2 Lumber, building material, and hardware stores ----­--­-----­Department and apparel store sales-­P ostal receipts _ __________ __.$ 59,727 + 5.0 -21.0 + 18.0 + 4.1 + 12.4 2.2 Air e..xpress shipments ----------­ 331 14.0 + 15.3 AMARILLO: Retail sales of independent stores__ + 7.7 + 1.4 Bank debits to individual account& (thousands) -------------$ End-of-month deposits (thousands)• $ 90,999 89,522 10.2 6.5 + 1.3 0.6 Apparel otores ---­----­Automotive stores Furniture and household stores __ General merchandise stores ___ Lumber, building material, and hardware stores 0.0 + 32.5 8.9 6.4 + 12.3 + 15.6 5.3 12.6 + 21.3 + 21.1 Annual rate of deposit turnover _ _ Unemployment (area) ---------­P lacements in employment (area) _ Nonagricultural civilian labor force (area) --------­------­-­ 12.1 8,150 1,715 76,750 3.2 + 87.4 -27.1 + 1.6 + 1.7 8.4 17.0 + 0.1 Department and apparel store sales_ 3.3 + 18.7 Water-borne commerce (tons) ----­ 7,661 -86.9 + 10.6 Postal receipts ·--$ 76,042 -11.4 8.2 Export and coastal cars unloaded __ 148 - 42.2 Building ~rmits $ 2,164,687 + 138.6 + 66.1 Air express shipments --­--­ 637 + 26.9 + 20.4 Bank debits to individual accounts (thouaands) -$ End-of-month deposits (thousands)* $ 90,855 86,448 + 1.0 4.6 + 0.2 1.8 BROWNSVILLE: Retail sales of independent stores·-···-­ 3.8 - 11.7 Annual rate of deposit turnover __ 12.6 4.6 0.0 Department and apparel store sales._ a.o 4.4 Unemployment Placements In employment ---­Nonagricultural civilian labor force_ 1,200 1,214 36,700 + + 0.0 8.7 3.1 + 7.7 6.8 0.3 P ostal receipts -------------·$ Export cars unloaded ----------­Air express shipments -··----­ 14,323 879 483 + 18.1 +121.4 + 10.5 6.3 1.0 4.5 Coastal cars unloaded --­------­ 47 + 66.7 +123.8 AUSTIN: Water-borne commerce (tons) ____ 83,798 + 13.4 - 2.8 Retsil sales of independent stores__ 3.3 + 6.1 Apparel stores ---------­ 18.1 + 31.2 CORPUS CHRISTI: Automotive stores --------­Eating and drinking places ___ Filling stations + 16.2 -1.5 + 21.0 -20.1 + 20.8 -9.7 Retail sales of independent stores__ Apparel stores ----··------·-­ + 7.7 -10.7 + 1.2 + 13.4 Food stores ----------­ 0.2 + 3.7 Automotive stores - - ----·­ + 32.4 - 7.8 Furniture and household stores + 14.6 + 27.4 F urniture and household stores ·-­ 8.4 + 36.0 Lumber, building material, and General merchandise stores ___ 8.1 + 9.1 hardware stores -­----­ 6.1 + 1.1 L umber, building material, and Department and apparel store sales_ Postal receipts ----------$ Building permits $ Air express shipments -----­Bank debits to indjvidual accounts (thousand) _..$ 168,763 2,472,387 588 141,721 12.3 + 6.7 + 70.4 + 14.0 + 18.3 + 27.7 + 6.7 + 14.6 + 57.2 + 25.7 hardware stores . Department and apparel store sales_ P ostal receipts -----·------­---$ 74,910 Building permits -------­$1,007,351 Air express shipments ----------­626 -21.1 -9.1 + 12.1 + 10.0 4.0 -2.8 + 11.3 7.0 72.2 + 66.7 End-of-month deposits (thousands)* $ Annual rate of deposit turnover 104,336 16.2 + 0.8 + 17.4 -0.9 + 23.7 Bank debits to individual accounts (thousands) ----------$ 84,789 + 5.6 4.7 Unemployment ----­ 1,060 -24.3 -38.0 End-of-month deposits (thousands)• $ 78,826 0.8 0.6 Placements in employment ____ 1,243 + 2.8 + 10.0 Annual rate of deposit turnover __ 12.8 + 6.7 5.9 Nonagricultural civilian labor force_ 44,860 + 0.4 - 0.9 Unemployment ---------­ 1,650 + 17.9 + 3.1 Placements in employment ----­ 1,676 + 10.6 12.8 BRYAN: Department and apparel store sales_ Postal receipts s Bulleting permits _ ________$ 8,535 126,180 -24.6 -6.3 + 53.6 + 76.6 -20.6 69.0 N onagricultural civilian labor force_ Water connections ---···-·­-­Electric connections -------­Water-borne commerce (tons) -·­ 63,850 24,766 28,669 1,405,470 + 3.0 + 8.5 + 8.3 17.6 + + 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 All-express shipments 37 +117.6 + 19.4 Export and coastal cars unloaded _ 151 - 24.1 -32.3 *Excludes deposits to credit of banks. •Rxcludes deposits to credit of banks. LOCAL BUSINE Percent change Perc•nt change Sept. 1949 Sept. 194~ Sept. 1949 Sept. 1949 September from from September from from City and item 1949 Sept. 1948 Aug. 1949 City and item 1949 Sept. 1948 Aug. 1949 BROWNWOOD: FORT WORTH: Retail sales of independent store•·-····· + 13.2 + 2.4 Retail sales of independent stores.____ -3.6 + 5.7 Department and apparel store sales.­4.1 + 37.1 Apparel stores ---------·· -16.9 +22.6 Postal receipts ------------····$ 11,807 + 2.3 + 7.4 Automotive stores ---------­+ 10.( -12.1 Bank debits to individual accounts Drug stores ---------·-····--·· -12.7 4.8 (thousands) ·-·--·-···-------··-·····$ 9,180,597 7.0 + 11.7 Eating and drinking places -----···· 7.4 -6.2 End-of-month deposits (thousands)• $11,825,451 8.4 + 0.6 Filling stations ····------··-··--·· + 4.5 -1.5 Air express shipments --·--·--··---···· 89 9.3 Florists ·····-·----·--··-····------· 4.9 +20.5 Food stores ------------· 7.1 + 0.7 Furniture and household stores __ _ 12.6 + 6.3 DALLAS: General merchandise ·-----····-­5.1 +17.8 Lumber, building material, and Retail sales of independent stores.·-··· + 0.1 + 10.7 8.6 + 29.6 hardware stores -----·----­+ 4.7 +22.9 Apparel stores ------------·-··--··· + 6.9 8.6 Department e.nd apparel stores -----6.7 +18.1 Automotive stores --------------------· + 2.6 + 0.2 Postal receipts -···-·--··---------------$ 871,201 + 15.1 + 8.1 Drug stores -------------------------­ Eating and drinking places ------­+ 9.7 0.7 Building permits -----····-·-··-·--·--·$ 3,282,888 + 60.7 6.! + 3.4 0.8 Air express shipments -------------­1,728 + 9.9 +I.I Filling stations -·····-·········--·-·­ 1.3 + 6.6 Bank debits to individual accounts Food stores ------·--·--·-·-········ (thousands) ____________g 310,388 u 0.7 Furniture and household stores..... -­+ 15.1 + 29.7 1.6 + 23.7 End-of-month deposits (thousands)• $ 300,820 + 5.6 0.3 General merchandise ----------·-----­ Annual rate of depo3it turnover -----­12.4 -10.8 u Lumber, building material, and 7.9 -4.8 Unemployment --------------···-­7,300 + 30.• -lU hardware stores ---------------·------­Department and apparel store sales.... 6.9 + 27.2 Placements in employment -----­3,131 -23.5 -18.1 + 3.5 Nonagricultural civilian labor force__ 138,200 + 1.7 -0.2 Postal receipts ---······-··--········--··-·-··$ 1,016,926 + 21.4 Building permits ------·····-···-·-············ $ 6,232,264 -23.8 -6.2 7.0 + 21.2 Air express shipments -······---············ 9,236 GALVESTON: Bank debits to inoiividual accounts (thousands) ---·-···-----···--$ 1,056,400 + 3.5 + 2.4 Retail sales of independent stores...... _ -11.4 4.1 End-of-month deposits (thousands)' $ 778,260 + 6.6 + 1.1 Apparel stores ----------­-21.4 + l.T Annual rate of deposit turnover -·---· 16.3 8.0 o.o Automotive stores -------------­+ 25.9 + 5.3 -23.6 -0.3 1.1 Unemployment ·-·-···--·-···-·-·-···-·····-·· 6,600 + 47.7 Food stores -----------­Placement.a in employment ---------­•.476 -20.0 0.6 Furniture and household stores ·-·­-48.5 -20.6 Nonagricultural civilian labor force.._ 247,600 + 6.8 -0.1 Lumber, building material, and hardware stores -----------­-44.6 -40.1 Department and apparel store sales__ -22.7 + 0.5 DENISON: Postal receipts ---··-·-···--------$ 51,978 + 1.6 -6.9 Retail sales of independen,t stores....... . + 0.8 + 13.3 Building permits -·--····--··--·-····---$ 200,584 7.8 -26.8 Department and apparel store sales._. 6.9 + 86.4 Air express shipments -----­+19.8 ----------851 2.2 Bank debits to Individual accounts9,08& 4.9 -2.3 Postal receipts -··--····---·······----·--······$ Building permits ··--····--·····-····-··-·····$ 78,866 + 26.6 26.1 (thousands) ··-··-··-····--··-·-········$ 67,235 0.3 + 2.9 End-of-month deposits (thousands)' $ 94,672 1.2 + 0.2 Bank debits to individual accounts Annual rate of deposit turnover ____ 8.6 + 2.4 (thousands) -······--··-·····-··-········· $ 7,751 -13.7 + 4.5 + 1.2 End-of-month deposits (thousands)' $ 10,262 -23.6 3.6 Unemployment (area) -·-···----·-···· a,100 + 63.2 +10.7 Placements in employment (area) __ 497 -40.6 + 5.8 Nonagricultural civilian labor force EL PASO: (area ) ······--·-·-··---···--··-lffi,650 -3.6 0.5 Export and coastal cars unloaded ____ 5,749 -31.7 -82.9 Retail sales of independent stores_ _____ + 9.2 + 8.7 Apparel stores -············--··-··-·····-· + 3.4 + 1.5 Automotive stores -·--···-·----·---·-.. ·-------+ 31.2 1.2 LAREDO: Food stores -----------·······-··-·-··-·· + 6.5 5.1 Retail sales of independent stores____ + 5.6 + S.7 Furniture and household stores ---· + 15.0 + 16.6 General merchandise stores --·--------­5.9 + 26.• Department and apparel store sales.... -84.2 + 8.1 Postal receipts ________________$ u Lumber, building material, and 16,543 + 1.2 hardware stores ----------------·-·-----­+ 1.1 -15.0 Bank debits to individual accounts Department and apparel store •ales.... + 2.7 + 26.4 (thousandi) ··----------------• 15,104 1.5 + 2.0 Postal receipts ----·-·-················· ···-····-$ 127,837 + 14.4 + 1.2 End-of-month deposits (thousands)• $ 20,861 5.8 2.4 Building permits ··--······--·--····-··········$ 1,860,566 + 47.8 + 74.4 Annual rate of deposit turnover -·--· li.6 + 7.5 + 2.4 Air exprese shipments ---------·-·--------­1,877 7.8 0.6 2.0 +u.o Air express shipments --·--····-···--·­242 Bank debits to individual accounts Electric power consumption (thousands) -···-···--·----·-····-$ 114,494 o.• + 3.3 (thousands k.w.h.) ---·------···· 4,017 + 12.6 +10.S End-of-month deposits (thousands)• $ 116,515 + 5.2 + 0.7 Natural gas consumption (thousand Ar.nue.l rate of deposit turnover ____ 11.9 4.0 + 3.5 cu. ft.) -----------· al,823 s.• -U Unemployment --------··-·············· 2,600 + 30.0 7.1 Tourists care enterin~ Mexico ·----­8,031 + 16.6 -tl.I Placoments in employment __ ····--···· 1,316 + 1.1 -1-9.0 Nonagricultural civilian labor force___ 52,550 + 1.8 -0.1 Tourists entering Mexico --------·-9,660 + 8.8 -n.a •Excludes deposits to credit of banks. •Excludes deposits to credit of banks. CONDITIONS Percent change Percent chan2'e City and item September 1949 Sept. 1949 from Sept. 1948 Sept. 1949 from Aug. 1949 City and item September 1949 Sept. 1949 from Sept. 1948 Sept. 1949 from Aug. 194g HOUSTON: MARSHALL: Retail sales of independent stores____ Apparel stores Automotive stores Drui s'°res Eating and drinking places --­ -9.8 -16.9 + 9.5 9.9 6.8 -1.8 + 12.7 7.7 2.1 + 1.1 Retail sales of independent storse__ Department and apparel store sales__ Postal receipts _________$ Building permits _________$ Bank debits to individual accounts 12,912 75,160 -14.5 -20.2 + 12.3 -79.4 +u + 27.1 -8.5 -50.2 Filling stations Florists Food stores 0.8 0.4 -14.6 5.6 + 10.4 0.8 (thousands) ------­--$ End-of-month deposits (thousands)• $ 10,167 16,870 8.6 9.3 + + 8.6 0.6 Furniture and household stores _ -27.4 6.1 ~neral merchandise -----­Jewelry stores -6.9 -12.7 + 5.1 9.1 PARIS: Lumber, building material, and Department and apparel store sales_ -21.8 + 74.2 hardware stores Department and apparel store sales.­Post.al receipts S Building permits $ Air express shipments 619,058 6,476,486 4,652 -30.7 -16.7 + 8.8 -17.4 -10.0 -25.0 + 12.7 + 2.8 -31.3 2.1 Postal receipts -----­·-----$ Bank debits to individual accounts (thousands) -----­--­----­$ E'nd-of-month deposits (thousands)• $ Air express shipments ------­11,745 14,556 14,584 53 1.9 0.3 5.5 + 60.6 + 17.1 + 85.2 + 1.1 + 85.9 Bank debits to inf-montb deposits (thousands) • Annual rate of deposit turnover __ $ 1,028,040 $ 913,882 13.4 + 5.3 1.S 6.9 + 3.6 1.5 + 2.3 PLAINVIEW: Unemployment (area) _ ---­Placements in employm~nt (area) _ 17,000 4,J.60 +142.9 -21.5 + 9.6 9.1 Retail sales of independent stores___.. Department and apparel store sales__ + 3.4 + 2.0 + 1.7 + 19.7 Nonacricultural civilian labor force (area) 333,800 + 3.5 0.0 Postal receipts -$ Building permits ---------$ 8,455 538,000 + 10.3 -5.5 +195.G Export and coutal ears unloaded__ Manufacturing employment ---­Nonmanu!acturiug employment _ _ 3,424 69,175 247,575 -23.9 4.9 -0.2 -24.8 + 1.7 + 0.2 Bank debits to individual accounts (thousands) -------S Air express shipment.a -----­ 11,167 40 9.2 9.1 16.8 2.4 LAMESA: PORT ARTHUR: lletail sales of independent stores__ PaotaJ receipts $ Building permits S Bank debits to individual aacouuts (thousands) S End-of-month deposits (thousands) • $ 6,619 81,150 6,920 9,514 + 24.2 + 26.9 -29.7 -4.4 -10.5 + 22.4 + 22.9 -74.4 + 22.9 + 0.2 Retail sales of Independent stores___ Apparel stores Automotive stores Eating and drinking places Food stores Furniture and household stores _ -7.8 -11.4 -4.6 + 11.7 + 5.6 -29.9 -7.8 + 15.2 -35.6 -3.7 + 3.2 -13.8 LOCKHART: &.tail sales of independent stores__ Department and apparel store sales_ Postal receipts S Building perntits $ 2,220 33,160 + 27.4 -9.5 + 18.6 + 9.5 + 51.7 -11.5 -36.6 Lumber, building material, and hardware stores ------­Department and apparel store sales_ P ostal receipts _______ __$ Buildfog permits ---------$ Air express shipments 24.962 449,512 205 + 15.3 -14.3 + 0.4 +139.8 + 7.9 + 40.6 + 9.8 -8.3 -13.4 + 28.1 Bank debits to individual accounts (thousands) --------$ 84,174 0.1 + S.6 LUBBOCK: End-of-month deposits (thousands)• $ 38,198 0.9 2.6 &.tail sales of independent stores_ Apparel stores _ + 12.4 -2.4 + 4.1 + 56.4 Annual rate of deposit turnover __ Unemployment (area) --­---­ 10.6 8,150 0.0 + 87.4 + 5.0 8.4 Automotive stores Furniture and household stores Lumber, building material, and har4ware stores Department and apparel store &ales_ Postal receipts 54,656 + 28.7 + 20.5 + SB.O -4.9 + 5.1 -11.8 17.3 + 5.9 + 44.1 -1.3 Placements in employment (area) _ Nonagricultural civilian labor force (area) ----­------­EXJ>ort ears unloaded -----·-­­Coastal cars unloaded -----­ l,715 76,750 408 452 -27.1 + l.6 -49.4 -12.4 -17.0 + 0.1 -87.6 + 5.0 l!'uildfog permits $ 976,257 -51.8 -12.0 A.ir express shipments -----­Bank debits to individual accounts 898 + 3.1 + 19.9 TEMPLE: (thousands) S End-<>f·mont.h deposits (thousands) • $ Annual rate of deposit turnover __ Unemploi'lllent Placements in employment ____ Nonairricultural civilia,n labor force_ 54,938 62,031 10.6 700 950 26,450 8.0 + 0.2 6.2 + 21.7 + 6.4 -1.2 + 6.S 0.4 + 6.0 -26.8 + 12.0 + 1.9 Retail sales of independent stores__ Department and apparel store sales_ P ostal receipts $ Building permits --------$ Air e.."" connection with a meeeure &..,..... muet of cbangea in consumers' prices, since the purchasing power of in.. come ie more elgnificant than the aggregate amount in dollars. The cost o( living, as measured by Indexes of consumers' prlcee, Is of vital importance to all businessmen and consumers.) The Houston housewives had not yet begun to enjoy in September any effects from the drop in wholesale food prices mentioned above. Retail food prices as indicated by the index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics were up 0.3%. Clothing prices, rents, and miscellaneous also rose during the same period by 1.5%, 2.4%, and 0.1 % respectively. Fuel prices dropped during September, however, by 0.1 % and housefurnishings by 0.3%. The index for all consumer goods' prices was up 0.6% for the month in Houston. When compared with the index for September of last year, it was lower by 2.3%. Consumer prices for the United States as a whole declined 2.8% in the same period. Commodities showing the greatest decline from 1948 were housefurnishings which were off 6.7%, clothing 6.0%, and food 5.1 %. A recent release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the variation in "food prices only" in a number of the principal cities of the nation during the last ten years. On the average food prices increased 115.7% between August 15, 1939 and July 15, 1949. Food prices in Houston increased by exactly the same percentage-­ 115.7%. In Dallas food prices rose 123.3% in the same decade. In all cases, however, the level on July 15 was off from the peak of July 15, 1948, by a sizable pro­portion; average prices were down 7.0% during the last year. Houston prices dropped 5.0% in that period and Dallas food prices 4.0%. INDEXES OF CONSUMERS' PRICl!:S IN HOUSTON ( 1936-39 =100) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Percent change Group Sept. 1949 Aug. 1949 Sept. 1949 Sept. 1949 Sept. from from 1948 Sept. 1948 Aug. 1949 ALL ITEMS ----·-171.4 170.4 176.4 -2.3 + 0.6 Food --------­212.2 211.6 223.7 - 6.1 + 0.3 Clothing -----­200.6 197.6 213.2 - 6.0 + 1.6 Rent 127.0 124.0 + 2.4 Fuel, electricity, and ice _ 98.1 98.2 99.6 - 1.6 - 0.1 H ouse furnishings --­185.1 186. 7 198.4 - 6.7 - 0.3 Miscellaneous 165.6 156.5 152.6 + 2.0 + 0.1 UNITED STATES, ALL ITEMS ----­169.6 168.8 174.6 - 2.8 + 0.5 TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW LABOR Employment (Employment statistics are amonl' the most Important Indicators of Texas business and economic activity. EstImates of total em­ployment in various industries in Texas include all ~mployees! ~th production workers and others, but exclude proprtetora, pr1nc1pal executives, and individuals who are selfemployed. The emplovment of nonagricultural workers in Texas turned upwaid for the month of September 1949. Gains in employment were not startling, but they were grati­fyingly steady and well distributed over the labor market areas of Texas. Manufacturing employment was up for the month and is expected to remain high with the exception of seasonal industries such as food processing. ESTIMATES OF EMPLOYMENT IN SELECTED INDUSTRIES IN TEXAS (in thousands) Source: Texas Employment Commission in cooperation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics. U. S. Department of Labor Percent change Industry Sept. 1949* Aug. 1949 Sept. 1948 Sept. 1949 Sept. 1949 f rom from Sept . 1948 Aug. 1949 Manufacturing -·----­339.~ 337.7 351.4 - 3.3 + 0.6 Durable goods -·--·---· 141.4 142.1 150.4 - 6.0 - 0.5 Nondurable 11:oods ..__.. 198.4 195.6 201.0 - 1.3 + 1.4 Minin11: ·-----·-·----103.0 103.9 100.7 + 2.3 -0.9 Tra ns portation and p ublic utilit ies __.._________ 227.8 229.9 229.0 - 0.8 -1.1 Trade --..------·-403.1 899.6 394.6 + 2.2 + 0.9 Fina nce and service ---­-­316.4 816.2 302.9 + 4.6 + 0.4 GoYernment _ ..... ---....---· 270.6 263.3 258.9 + 4.5 + 2.8 *Preliminary. Although crude petroleum production employment declined slightly in September, this situation is expected to be reversed in the next few months i£ employment follows expected increased production allowables and a normal winter demand for fuel oil ensues. Trade employment increased in September and should continue to increase until the first of the year with the impetus of the winter buying season. Government employment has increased over the State, although several areas have experienced fairly significant employment losses from government agencies, many of which have been associated with the armed services. Construction continues to be a very potent force in stabilizing the State employment picture. Certainly some seasonal decline is to be expected in the winter months, but indications are that construction employment will remain about the normal seasonal level. Discounting the effects which current work stoppage of national scope might have on Texas employment, prospects are bright for the remainder of 1949. It is _impossible to estimate how great an influence the strikes in coal and steel will have on industry in Texas and thus on employment. All of the effects of stoppages to date cannot be escaped, but the effects on employment may be mitigated if an early settlement is secured. Labor Force (Estimates of the nonairrfcultural civilian labor force are .... currently for the State's principal labor market areas by the T­Employment Commission. Labor force data, lndlcatinl' the total supply of labor In these areas, Include all employed woril~t.. • well as all others who are available for Jobs and who are WWllll and able to work.) The nonagricultural civilian labor force in Texas showed only a fractional change in September from the preceding month. The September employment was 2.5% above September of 1948, however. Cities with the largest gains over last year were Dallas, Texarkana, Houston-Baytown, Amarillo, and Corpus Christi. None showed significant changes, however. On the other hand, the labor force in September decreased 4.8% from a year earlier in Waco, 3.6% in the Galveston-Texas City area, 1.5% in Longview, and 1.2% in Lubbock. In comparison with August, small gains were registered in September by Lubbock, Texarkana, Amarillo, Wichita Falls, and Beaumont-Port Arthur, while other labor mar­ket areas showed decreases from the previous month. The nonagricultural civilian labor force in Texas numbered 1,395,345 in September as compared with 1,397,535 in August and 1,361,245 in September a year ago. NONAGRICULTURAL CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE Source: Texas Employment Commission Percent changt Sept. 1949 Sept. 1949 Sept. Aug. Sept. from from Area 1949 1949 1948 Sept. 1948 Aug. 1949 TOTAL ·--....-·-1,395,345 1.397,535 1,361,246 + 2.6 -0.2 Abilene ·---....--­Amarillo _ ___ .._ ... 18,680 36,700 19,100 36,600 18,380 35,600 + 1.6 + 3. 1 -2. 2 + 0.3 Austin -----·-­- 44,860 46,260 44,700 + 0.4 -0.9 Beaumont-Port Ar thur -------­ 76,760 76.700 75,550 + 1.6 + 0.1 Corpus Christi __.._ 63,850 54,200 62,300 + 3.0 -0.6 Dallas ------------­El Paso ___ .. ____ .. __ 247 ,600 62,650 247,900 62.600 234,100 51,600 + 6.8 + 1.8 -0.1 -0.1 Fort W orth __.... _ .. 138,200 138,500 135,900 + 1.7 -0.2 Galveston-Texas City ----­-----------­ 52,650 52,900 54,600 - 3.6 - 0.5 Houston-Baytown - 333,800 333,800 322,400 + 3.6 0.0 Longview -------­Lubbock ---------------­ 22,450 26,450 22.600 25.950 22,800 26 ,775 -- 1.5 1.2 -0.7 + 1.9 San Angelo -.... ____ Sau Antonio ·­......... Texarkana -----­-----­ 17,875 160,160 36,310 17,900 160,550 36,075 17,150 157,100 34,450 + 4.2 + 1.9 + 6.4 -0.1 -0.2 + 0.7 Waco ----------­---­Wichita Falls -----­ 43 ,8 50 32,620 44 ,360 32,560 46,050 81, 790 -4.8 + 2.6 -1.l + 0.2 The estimates of employment and earnings i~ Texas formerly compiled by the Bureau of Busi· ness Research in cooperation with the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics are now being prepared by the Research Division of the Texas Employment Commission and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Two series, "Changes in production worker pay rolls in specified industries" and "Changes in man· hours worked in manufacturing establishments," have been discontinued by the collecting agency. All other series will appear in the Review in their present form. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW Hours and Earnings (Statistics .. ..,.,... and eanahlp ah-dearly the effects of the .Wft ef the State'• economy and the reneral upward movement of __.. sblee V-.J 0.y. A•e<"&Se hourly earnings are computed by ....... die -' ..:r rolla ll:r tJae total man-hours worked in ...,...ttar •tahliahmeata.) Average weeklv hours for the manufacturing industries of Texas rose to 43.2 for the month of September 1949 from an average of 42.1 (corrected) for August 1949. Average hourly earnin!ffi in ~ntember increased to 129.3 cents per hour from the 128.8 (corrected) cents per hour in Au!?Ust. The increased average work week with the hi~er rate bro11e:ht about the hin._. clay. a.nd glMs 43.8 45.9 43.8 118.0 109.9 110.3 49.49 50.44 48.31 Texti es 40.3 40.8 41.7 95.3 97.2 99.9 38.40 89.66 41.66 Appa 39.9 40.5 38.7 79.0 76.6 75.3 31.52 31.02 29.14 Food 45.3 44.9 45.l 107.l 108.8 106.l 48.51 48.86 47.85 Pape and allied products 44 .l 43.7 46.9 127.6 124.4 122. 2 56.27 64.36 56.09 Prin ing and publishing 41.l 40.3 41.6 186.9 188.0 176.9 76.81 75.76 73.59 Che.micah 43.8 41. 4 43. 4 144.9 142.5 136.2 63.46 59.00 59.11 Petroleum re.fining 41 .0 39.0 39.8 190.2 188.3 185.4 77.98 73.44 73.79 NOJ\'ll..... FACTURING Crude petroleum p rodaction t 41. 6 40.6 41.4 188.l 186.4 183.3 78.25 75.68 75.89 Hotels 4.4.l 47.7 44. 4 52.9 53.8 52.2 23.33 25.42 23. 18 Public atili ies 39.8 40.4 39.7 124.l 122.7 118.6 49.39 49.57 47.08 Quanyini 40.6 40.3 23.5 148.5 148.7 146.l 60.29 59.93 57.71 Retail tl"Bd 42.l 42.5 39.7 87.5 86.0 87.9 36.84 86.65 34.90 Wholesale trade_______ ___ __ 42.6 43.0 42.0 113.7 117.2 115.4 48.11 50.40 48.47 •Piru:re do not cover proprif!'tors. firm membere, officers of corporations, or other pri.ncipa.J executives. Manufacturing data, revised in l1111e 11148. cover production and related work"1"1 ; nonmanu!acturing data cover all employees except as noted. Flirureo cover production workeni only. iPrelimln&rJ'. Subject to revision upon completion of supplemental tabulat ion. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW UNEMPLOYMENT Source: Texas Employment Commission Sept. Aug. Sept.Area 1949 1949 1948 TOTAL --····-·-·····-···--···--··············-·­65,095 74,135 43,415 Abilene ----·····-·-··-··-····­··-·-·--·---­ 1,280 1,750 900 Amarillo ··--··---------·-·---··--·----­ 1,200 1,300 1,200 Austin --··---··--··----·-·----­-·-·----· 1,060 1,710 1,400 Beaumont-Port Arthur -----·····-·-·······­ 8,150 8,900 4,350 Corpus Christi ----------------­ 1,650 1,600 1,400 Dallas -----···--­---·--·-­ 6,500 8,500 4,400 El Paso -····-----------·····-·--·­ 2,600 2,800 2,000 Fort Worth ····---···-·----··-------··­ 7,300 8,400 5,600 Galveston-Texas City ------·---··---··­ 3,100 2,800 1,900 Houston-Baytown -···--·---­----­17,000 18,800 7,000 Longview -------··-·-----­ 1,600 1,800 1,400 Luhbock ··---------·---------­ 700 950 575 San Angelo ··-·-·---------·-·--·­ 875 950 550 Sa'! Antonio --··-·-·--·----------·­·· 5,750 6,250 4,000 Texarkana --------····­--------········ 3,610 3,925 3,000 Waco ····--­--···-----·--·---·-·--··­ 1,500 2,250 2,700 Wichita Falls ···-···-···--········--···-··--·····­ 1,220 1,450 1,040 is partially due to the school age workers quitting work, and is considered "smaller than that seasonally expected." During September, collections totaling $221,390 were deposited in the clearing account for payment as benefits to Texas unemployed. Benefits paid during the month were $1,157,080, which left $213,125,174 in the trust fund at the end of the month. In September 441 applica­tions were filed compared with 643 filed in August 1949. Placementa (The number of placement& reported by the Texa1 Employment Commission indicate• rou&'hly the relationship of the supply of and the demand for jobs in various parts of the State. Placements do aot Include private placements in business and industry, but only those made tbroul'b the State Employment Service. Furthermore, the number of placements made should not be considered as addi­tions to total employment, •ince many of them represent abffte from one Job to another.) Placement activity in the 17 labor market areas of Texas dropped 1.7% in September 1949 from August 1949 and was down 14.7% from September 1948. The highly significant nonseasonal drop in unemployment during the month can be cited as one cause for the slackened placement activity. Corrected for ordinary loads, the placement of Texas workers is favorable. However, since fewer workers were seeking jobs a decline resulted. For the month of August, the State of Texas led the nation in job placements for farm and nonfarm workers. During September 1949 the Texas Employment Commission placed 26,785 persons as compared with 27,235 in August. Despite the general downward trend for the State as a whole, placements in three West Texas cities showed increases over both August 1949 and September 1948. Placements in Abilene were 14.0% above Septmber last year and 13.3% above August; Wichita Falls was up 12.8% and 5.4% over last year and last month respec­tively, and Lubbock showed corresponding increases of 6.4% and 12.0%. In contrast to these gains, the Houston­Baytown and Galveston-Texas City areas, although show­ing substantial increases over August, were still 21.5% and 40.6% respectively below September 1948. Following the general trends indicated by the reports, the four largest cities of Texas placed fewer workers in new positions during September of this year than during the same period last year. Dallas reported placements down 20.0%; Fort Worth, 23.5%; Houston, 21.5%; and San Antonio, 12.2%. PLACEMENTS IN EMPLOYMENT Source: Texas Employment Commission Percent change Area Sept. 1949 Aug. 1949 Sept. Sept. 1949 Sept. 1949 from from 1948 Sept, 1948 Aug. 1949 TOTAL --··-····-­26,785 27,235 31,387 -14.7 -1.7 Abilene ----------­-----­ 604 533 530 +14.0 +is.s Amarillo --------­----­ 1,214 1,137 1,117 + 8.7 - 6.8 Austin -------·­ 1,243 1,130 1,209 + 2.8 +10.0 Beaumont-Port Arthur_ 1,715 2,067 2,351 -27.1 -17.0 Corpus Christi ··---·­ 1,676 1,922 1,615 +10.6 -12.8 Dallas ------­--------­ 4,476 4,505 5,598 -20.0 -0.6 El Paso -·-·---··-···-­ 1,316 1,624 1,302 +u -19.0 Fort Worth -------­ 3,131 3,822 4,093 -28.5 -18.! Galveston-Texas City _ 497 472 836 -40.6 + 6.3 Houston-Baytown -----­ 4,460 4,089 5,678 -21.5 +9.! Longview ------ ------------­ 586 478 589 - 0.5 +22.6 Lubbock ·-­··-·-····-·······-· 950 848 893 + 6.4 +21.0 San Angelo -·-­·-···--·-­ 873 342 520 -28.3 + 9.1 Snn Antonio --··--·--­ 2,813 2,617 8,205 -12.2 + 7.6 Texarkana ------­--------­ 441 405 660 -32.2 + 8.9 Waco ---------­----­--­ 689 674 768 -10.3 + 2.2 Wichita Falls 601 570 583 +12.s + 6.4 Industrial Relations (A knowled•• of current developments In Industrial relatloaa II necessary to an underatandln• of the State's labor plcturo.) The attention of the entire nation is directed toward the current coal and steel strikes. As yet the full impact has not been felt. No immediate settlement is foreseen, however, and the government attitude seems to be one of noninterference. The Ford settlement on the pension question has attracted considerable attention, also. Perhaps less apparent to the general public at present but of definite long run significance is the right and left· wing fight within the C.1.0. and the possible split-up of the C.1.0. To date the so-called right-wing faction has been able to keep control, but several laq~e unions which are controlled by communistically inclined leaders may withdraw from the C.1.0. The top leaders are faced with a great problem. Several possible solutions including the merger of the A.F.ofL., and the C.1.0. have been suggested. This is not likely with present membership. John L. Lewis and his U.M.W. group might join with one or the other, but probably will not. There seems to be considerable feeling within the C.1.0. to raise money to assist the United Steel Workers in their current stri ke. This will undoubtedly be done. The present concern of many business leaders is how long the present strike can continue without serious effect to other production such as automobiles. Many feel that if carried too far into the winter the current strikes will have a depressing effect upon the economy from a longer run point of view and perhaps hasten an· other recession-or lead us into that long dreaded "post· war depression." It is doubtful that government pressure would be withheld for such a long period of time, but it is certain that the unions consider noncontributory pensions a major problem worth a long, strong fight. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW FINANCE Bank Credit (Since bank credit la euential to all buslnesa, the condition• of the commercial banks and the Federal Reaerve Banka are a signifi­cant if'dic111tor of the state of buttiness. Chl'lnres in the volume of credit that the bank• have outatandinr reflect the bualneu situation. Tbe condition of the Federal Reserve Banka In like manner abowa what It happeninr to credit available to commercial banks.) In September bank loans increased to continue their direction of mowment from last month. Increases were re{?istered o\·er Au Don and Bradstreet reported only 21 business failures in Texas during the month of September. This was a decrease of 10 from August. Average liabilities of these 21 failures was $37,000 compared to $26,000 average for August. The number of failures shows a substantial increase over September 1948 when only 2 businesses were forced to suspend operations. BUSINESS FAILURES Source: Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. Sept. Aug. Sept. Aug. 1949 1949 1948 1948 Number 21 31 2 12 Liabilities• $785 $803 $879 $334 Average liabilities per failure• $ 37 $ 26 $440 $ 28 •In thousands of dollars. Corporation Charters (n.. .._ ef ~tloa chart•• meaaurea tbe addition• to tbe ..._ .......doa ... nllKte doe state of optimlam er JMIHimiam ef l al I ) The number of new corporations declined from 349 in August 1949 to 288 in September. Merchandising with 56 new charters led all others while oil with 11, banking with 12, and transportation with 9 chartered the fewest new ventures. COltPORATION CHARTERS ISSUED BY CLASSIFICATIONS Source: Secretary of State ====--================================ Sept. Aug. Sept. Classification 1949 1949 1948 DOMESTIC CORPORATIONS Capitalir.ation (thousands) ___$5,469 Number 288 $8,087 349 $5,007 273 Banking-finance Construction 12 16 15 12 Manu!acturina­ 28 29 36 Merchandising 56 62 66 Oil 11 8 24 Public service 0 3 Real estate 30 36 23 Transportation 9 6 7 All others 69 108 55 onprofit (no capital stock) 57 76 43 FOREIG CORPORATIONS Number 88 29 30 CORPORATION CHARTERS ISSUED BY CAPITALIZATION Source: Secretary of State P ercent change Capitalir.ation Sept. 1949 Aug. 1949 Sept. 1948 Sept. 1949 Sept. 1949 from from Sept. 1948 Aug. 1949 Over $100,000 ___ 8 16 -50.0 - 81.3 $5,00(4100,000 Less than $5,000 __ No capital stock __ 15• 74 57 161 85 83 150 70 43 + 2.7 + 5.7 + 32.6 --- 4.3 12.9 31.3 CapitaJiz.ation not specified 0 4 4 Air (The total volume of commodities shipped by air ellpress la only a very small percentage of all commodities moved, but the rapid increase in the uae of tbla type of transportation makes Its &TOWth of reneral Interest to business.) An important expansion of coach fare operation will start November 1 when National and Eastern Airlines inaugurate reduced fare service between New York and Miami_ The 4-cent-a-mile fare will apply on DC 4 equipment seating 56 or more passengers. This is a significant move because November 1 marks the begin­ning of the seasonal rush to Florida. This is merely an example of the coach fare picture which is primarily one of expansion. Other segments of the nation's network of airways are either already receiving coach fares or are scheduled to get them soon. Air express shipments for the month of September were down 3.1 % from Sep­tember 1948 but up 12.6% from August. Rail (The movement of goods by rail la fundamental to all busineH operations, and changes In the number of freight cars loaded reflect basic changes In the volume of bualness-The commodity ITOupa are alplficant for tbe Information they rive on specific lnduatrlea. The miscellaneous rroup includea manufactured goods and Is renerally conshlerecl a measure of the volume of trade. MercbandlH I.e.!. shipments include the same type of goods shipped In smaller Iota.) The nation's railroads are to be listed close to the top of those industries hard hit by the shut-down in the coal and steel industries. Loading of revenue freight for the week ending October 15 is down 329,044 cars from the corresponding week of 1948. Percentagewise this is a decline of 36.0% below 1948 and 38.8% below 1947. Naturally, coal loadings are the hardest hit. Only 51,368 cars were loaded in the week ending October 15 compared with 126,006 cars one year ago. The coal strike has a double-barreled effect on those carriers dependent on coal for fuel. Those roads have had to curtail passenger train service in order to conserve dwindling coal stocks. One bright spot in the rail situation has been the return to work of the Missouri Pacific workers after a 45-day work stoppage. Here in the Southwest the volume of revenue freight loaded in September was off 29.l% from the month of September 1948. The Bureau's index of miscellaneous freight carloadings was down 24.3 % from a year ago. Water (Since a sizable volWD8 of traffic: meve• Into aad out of the State by water, atatlatlca on water-borae com-rce are an lmportMat la­dkator not ollly of tranaportatlon !tut of general bualaeH activity.) The volume of water-borne commerce at Texas ports continues to run under the 1948 volume. In September the total tonnage amounting to 1,496,829 tons was 16.4% below the September 1948 figures. Despite a lower tonnage handled at the Port of Houston this year, from a financial standpoint the Port is showing the highest net profit in history. This is due in part to .more efficient operations and in part to the large tonnage of dry ca:r:go. The tonnage decline has been due to a drop in the movement of petroleum. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW A New Index of Business Activity in Texas By JOHN R. STOCKTON, Professor of Business Statistics, The University of Texas This issue of the Texas Business Review introduces a all the different phases of the economy of the area. It is new index of business activity in Texas, a revision of the obviously impossible to compile monthly data that will composite index first published in the September 1936 · measure the changes in every kind of economic activity issue of the Review and carried practically without in the State of Texas; business is composed of such change since that date. The new index has been made diverse operations that the cost for securing data on all possible by the development of data not available in of them would be prohibitive. The only practicable 1936 which provide a more precise measurement of the approach to the problem of measuring changes in all changes in the level of general business than was possible activity is to group the major components of the business 13 years ago. structure into a limited number of classes and to try to find statistical series available on a monthly basis toThe purpose of the index of business activity remains measure the changes in these classes of activity. If thethe same as that for the original index; namely, to activity of the most important types of business in a givenmeasure the changes in the level of total business activity class can be measured, it is not illogical to take this infor­in Texas and to represent the combined effect of all the mation as representative of all the activity in the group. factors that make for change in the economic condition The Bureau's new index of Texas business activity makesof the State. For many years business analysts have use of this device, incorporating in the index as manyattempted to summarize in one series of data the effect reliable statistical series as are now available. This9£ the many changing influences on the level of business method of computation provides for the addition of new~ctivity, although it has been recognized that the different series in the future or the substitution of better series forparts of the economy probably did not all move in the those already in the index. same direction at the same time. Nevertheless, summary measures of the composite change taking place in busi­The first step in the construction of the index of Texas ness activity have served as valuable tools for determining business was to determine the relative importance of the the course of business and forecasting its future behavior. different kinds of business in the State, since any attempt The Bureau of Business Research has continued to com· to measure the changes in total business must be based pile and publish more detailed measures of the different on a knowledge of the components of total business phases of business, such as retail sales, building con­activity. Studies of the National Industrial Conference struction, farm income, bank debits, and postal receipts, Board were used to measure the amount of income pro· and to disseminate as widely as possible data compiled duced in Texas by different industries, and conclusions by other agencies on individual segments of the business based on these data were drawn as to the contribution of economy. These detailed measures, taken in conjunction the different industries toward the total income of the with the summary measure of total business, provide for State in a typical prewar period. The average of the the businessmen of Texas a monthly report on the changes five years 1935-39 was chosen as the base period for the in the level of business which inevitably affect the profit­index of business activity, since this was probably as ableness of their own business operations. representative a prewar period as could be found. Most To serve as an adequate measurement of the level of of the national index numbers of business are based on total business activity, an index must attempt to represent this period, and in order to make comparisons between OLD AND NEVJ INDEXES OF TEXAS BUSINESS ACTIVITY .PERCENT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION, i935-39=100 PERCENT TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW these indexes and the index of Texas business the use of this base period was highly desirable. Detailed income statistics are available for the years 1935, 1936, and 1938, and these data were used to measure the importance of the different kinds of busi­nesses in the base period, 1935-39. During this period government activities accounted for 20.62% of the total realized income in the State, agriculture accounted for 14.55%, and all other economic activity for 64.83% . The new index of business activity in Texas attempts to measure the fluctuations in the third group of activities, excluding the fluctuations in agricultural and govern­mental economic activity. The most important phases of business included in this group are mineral production, manufacturing, trade and service businesses, construction, transportation, public utilities, and financial operations. · These activities are what most persons have in mind when they speak of "business," and a measure of business fluctuations should reflect the changes occurring in these ~tivities. While agriculture is obviously important in Texas, it is a different kind of business from those enumerated above, and it is believed that it is better to measure changes in farm income separately from the changes in other kinds of economic activity. The Bureau of Business Research has for many years published detailed data on the income from farm marketings, and it was decided that income of farmers from the sale of farm products should be kept separate and distinct from the measure of general business activity. Since the attempt was being made to measure the changes in private business only, governmental activities have also been excluded from the index. Seven major divisions of business activity in Texas were defined and the relative importance of each was computed for the years 1935, 1936, and 1938 from the data compiled by the National Industrial Conference Board. The table below gives the average percentage distribution of realized income by these divisions for the three years. Percent Mining and quarrying._________________ 7.4 Electric light, power, and gas______ 2.6 Manufacturing ----------------------------16. 7 Construction -------------------------------3.3 Transportation ----------------------------15.2 Trade and service __________________________ 41.2 Miscellaneous -----------------------------13.6 Total ________________________ __________ l 00. 0 Since the miscellaneous group consisted of many small segments of the economy of the State, it seemed useless to try to find an adequate measure of the changes in this group; so use was made of a favorite device of statisticians, namely, assuming that the fluctuations in this group would not differ significantly from the fluctu­tions of the remaining classes. Accepting this assump­tion as correct, it is permissible to distribute the weight belonging to this classification among the other groups, the usual method of distribution being according to the relative size of the different classes. When this was done, only six groups remained, and the relative importance of each was as follows: Percent Mining and quarrying__________________ 8.6 Electric light, power, and gas______ 3.0 Manufacturing ----------------------------19.3 Construction --------------------------------3.8 Transportation ----------------------------17.6 Trade and service____ ______________________ 47.7 Total ------------------------------------100.0 When the relative importance to be given each group was computed, the next problem was the choice of sta­tistical series that were available for measuring the month-to-month changes in each component of the economy of the state. It was desired that these series measure the changes in the actual volume of business carried out, rather than changes in the dollar value of business. This latter measure is of interest to the business­man, but in times of rapidly rising or falling prices it contains two elements, the changes in the volume of business done and the changes in the prices of the com­modities or services bought and sold. The purpose of an index of business activity is to measure changes in the amount of business done, rather than in the number of dollars exchanged. Price indexes are compiled to measure the changes in the prices of goods and services, and more information is available if the changes that result from price fluctuations are kept distinct from the changes that result from the volume of business done. The new index of the Bureau tries to measure changes in the volume of business, independent of effects of price variations. The first group in the above table, mining and quarry­ing, will be represented for the present by the production of crude petroleum. Since it is the most important of the extractive industries of the State, petroleum produc­tion rightly deserves a major portion of the weight given to this group, and until additional series are available it will be assigned all the weight for the group. This series is available monthly from the State Comptroller and represents total oil production in the State. Electric light, power, and gas will be represented by consumption of electricity as reported to the Bureau of Business Research by the major power companies of ~he State. ~dditional series to represent the public utility mdustry will be added when the data have been compiled, but for the present the total weight of this group will be assigned to electric power consumption. Manufacturing industry is the second largest compon­ent of the economic activity of the State, and plans are being made for the construction of a comprehensive measure of manufacturing activity. Until this index has been compiled, the weight for this group will be allocated between two series, one representing the petroleum refining industry and the other representing all other manufacturing activity. Data on crude runs to stills are available monthly from the State Comptroller and are generally used to measure the activity of the refining industry. Since many products are turned out by a refinery, it is simpler to measure the activity of the TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW industry by compiling data on the consumption of its major raw material. The remaining portion of manu­facturing industry will be represented by the data on the consumption of electric power by industrial users, com­piled and published by the Bureau of Business Research. The amount of power consumed in a month by industrial users will usually be related directly to the activity of the users' businesses. In this manner it becomes a meas­ure of the manufacturing activity of the State, and in the absence of a better measure of manufacturing it will be used in this way. The total weight of 19.3% assigned to manufacturing has been split as follows: 4.5% to the petroleum refining industry, as measured by crude oil runs to stills, and 14.8% to all other manufacturing industry, represented by industrial power consumption. This division of the weight was based on the relative importance of petroleum and all other manufacturing. The construction industry is represented by the index of building permits compiled by the Bureau of Business Research from reports of building officials in the State. Since a major portion of the building in the State requires a permit before work can start, a compilation of building permits issued becomes a measure of the activity of the construction industry. It is true that all building is not covered by permits, but the Bureau is at present working on an extension of its data-collecting activities to include all building. It is hoped that these data can be improved considerably to serve as a better measure of construction, but at the present time the data included in the index are the best that are available. Since build­ing permits are reported as value of contemplated con­struction, an adjustment must be made for the changes in building costs. To accomplish this, the index of building permits has been adjusted for changes in the cost of building by dividing each month's index number by an index of construction costs compiled by the Associated General Contractors of America, Inc. This means that the data used in the index of business activity measure the changes in the volume of building without being affected by the fluctuations in value brought on by the changes in costs. Transportation is represented at the present time by carloadings of miscellaneous freight in the Southwestern district. This includes the territory served by the rail­roads running out of St. Louis and Memphis, much of which is outside of Texas. However, at the present this appears to be the best data that are available to measure the fluctuations in transportation in the State of Texas. Trade and service represent the largest portion of the business of the state with a weight of 47.7%. No information is available to measure the fluctuations in the service industries of the state, but the Bureau of Business Research estimates the total retail sales in Texas each month from reports received from a sample of approximately 2,500 stores in the state. This compilation is made in cooperation with the Bureau of the Census and is considered a reasonably accurate measure of the changes in retail sales. Since no data are available to measure the changes in service industries, it is assumed that their volume fluctuation is the same as the sales of retailers, and the weight given retail sales is the total weight of trade and service. Since retail sales are reported in dollars, they are affected by the change in the level of retail prices as well as in the amount of business done. This requires an adjustment for price changes similar to that performed on the data for building permits. An index of retail prices compiled by the United States Department of Commerce is used to adjust retail sales for the effect of changes in prices. Since the seasons of the year have effect on the amount of business done in many lines, it has been necessary to remove this variation from each of the series. For example, retail trade shows a strong rise in December because the public is buying for Christmas; so in order to determine the real course of sales it is necessary to remove the effect of this purely seasonal stimulant to sales. January, on the other hand, tends in many lines to be a poor month, but when January sales have been adjusted for this seasonal slump it is possible to deter­mine whether January was basically a better or a poorer month than December. If the comparison were made between the unadjusted sales, January would always appear much lower than December, but when allowance is made for the different seasonal behavior of the two months, the underlying course of business may be seen. NEW COMPOSITE INDEX OF TEXAS BUSINESS ACTIVITY Adjusted for seasonal variation (1935-39= 100) Year J an. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1935_____ 74.4 75.8 76.9 80.0 78.0 78.9 82.3 83.0 80.6 85.1 86.8 87.7 1936 ______ 87.8 94.8 96.8 94.7 94.3 100.0 98.5 98.3 99.9 102.5 101.9 105.6 1937___________ 102.2 103.9 109.0 110.7 111.3 109.1 110.4 112.4 114.7 109.3 108.5 104.4 193 8 ________________ 105.1 102.6 104.8 104.4 103.5 102.8 103.0 103.4 105.1 107.8 108.0 110.l 1939 106.8 107.4 108.8 111.0 111.4 110.2 108.0 103.3 112.4 112.0 111.1 112.l 1940 ______ 109.7 112.1 115.2 110.7 109.2 108.1 107.4 110.6 109.4 112.0 115.1 116.7 1941______ 118.3 118.0 117.0 120.0 123.6 121.6 122.5 128.2 . 120.6 118.4 124.4 134.6 1942________ 127.2 122.1 121.0 116.3 121.8 124.9 127. 6 134.6 134.5 135.2 135.6 137.0 1943 ___________ 139.4 148.1 140.4 143.7 143.6 148.9 148.4 149.5 154.8 156.1 159.9 169.4 1944-_______ 156.3 163.5 163.8 161.8 162.4 166.8 166.3 168.1 168.2 167.1 172.3 175.3 1945____ 177.4 174.9 180.4 168.9 175.9 172.2 170.5 165.6 157.1 156.1 168.0 176.~ 1946_________ 182.1 189.5 178.8 178.8 176.5 178.5 177.8 181.1 179.0 174.2 174.8 171.3 1947__________ 177.8 177.7 174.4 178.2 174.8 178.6 186.6 184.0 191.6 191.6 198.4 196.0 1948_____ 200.8 193.1 196.3 204.0 194.2 193.6 198.8 194.2 201.9 193.6 199.5 200.0 1949 _ ___ 188.7 189.8 187.6 189.4 181.4 189.9 l.86.7 193.1 196.9 TEXAS BUSINE.5S REVIEW All of the series in the new index of business are adjusted for seasonal variation, so the resulting index represents the changes in business activity other than those fluctu­ations that are the result of the seasons. The business picture in Texas as revealed by the new index is somewhat diJierent from that shown by the old. It is believed that the new picture, resulting from the better data that were available for the index, is a more llCICUJ'ate measure of the changes that have taken place. From 1935 to the middle of 1941 the difference between the two indexes was negligible, but from the middle of 1941 until the fall of 1945 the two follow very different courses. The extremely high level of the old index is mainly the result of the weight given to employment and pay rolls and the fact that the Bureau's sample of firms contained a large number of war plants. The expanded employment and the high pay rolls of these plants pushed the old index up much more sharply than the new, and it is believed that the new index better measures the changes that took place for the State as a whole during this period. The rapid reduction in the number of employees in the war industries that came with the end of the war brought on the extremely sharp decline during 19'5, wbicli undoubtedly overstates the reconversion decline in Texas. The total business activity of the State certainly did not decline as much as the old composite index showed, hut probably behaved much more as indicated by the new index. For the postwar period the course of the two indexes is approximately the same except for the sharper rise in the old index. This resulted from the strong rise in retail sales that was brought on by the postwar price rise since the retail sales series in the old index was not adjusted for price changes. The rise in pay rolls also contributed to the rise of the old index since wage rates have shown substantial increases. The new index of Texas business activity is presented, not as a perfect measure of business activity, but as an improvement over the old, and one that can he revised as better data can be secured. Within the framework of the present weight scheme new series may he added and part of the weight for each group assigned to the new series. It is expected that frequent revisions will he made in the future in an effort to keep the index an up-to-date measure of business activity. When sufficient postwar data have been accumulated it is expected that the base will be shifted to a postwar period, hut at present it appears wise to retain the prewar base until it is clearer what the course of postwar business activity will be. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW Published monthly by the BuTeau of Buginess Research, Colle2'e of Business Administration, The niversity of Texas, Austin 12, Texas terial contained in this publication is not copyrighted and may be reproduced freely. Acknowledgment of source will be appreciated. ubscription $2.00 pa ;ea.r. J. Anden;on FiugeraJa______ _______~ean STAFF OF THE BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH J ohn R. tockton A. H. Chute AcliMfl Director and Statuti.ei.an R-e.ta.ilifl.f} peciali.st Stanley Arbini"St Al"a M. Clutts Re.sovreea pe.ciali-at Rueareh Supervisor Mary A. neider Dan Hill Earlayne Meyer e.eretar11 F'iel.d Represent.a~i:e Library As..U.tant Ruth Bruce Isa.hel Worley Margaret Hampton Editorial Assiat.aMt. StotUtical Auistaftt Publi.eation.s A•sut.ant Polly Jefferson Eyvonne Cochran R rch. Assis;ant Research. Aa.siotan"t Leo . Goodman E. L. Taylor Richard Mollison Richard Schmidt ~ehAssoci.a Busln"u "-••.arch Council J. Anderson Fitzgerald (ex o cio), F. L. Cox, Emmette S. Redford, llar>ey Peek, and R. K. Snell. Cooptratlnc Faculty A. B. Cox, Cot.ton; Clark Meyers. H . H . Elwell, and W. H. Wat.son, Labor; Ralph B. Thompson, Prices; O. C. Lindemann. FiMoMce; Henry H . Scltloss, For · n Tro4e; H. K. Snell and J. D. Neal. Tratt8p0rl.ation. Anbta..ots :Margare Birkman. Ka erine Brewton, Tommy Burris, Robert Carpenter, Frank Dannelley. Lucille Dunlev:r. James Falzone. Tom Flanagan. Carl Gromatsk::r. Grady Hall, Richard Henshaw, t Hickson, Robert Hill, B. L. Hillman. Charles Hink.le, Calvin Jayroe, James Kelley. Lee Roy Kern. Robert Lui.er, Caroline Yart:in, Man-in Masur, Dale McG