Risk management of oil refinery

dc.contributor.advisorLasdon, Leon S., 1939-
dc.contributor.advisorButler, John C. (Clinical associate professor)
dc.creatorDo, Hyunsooen
dc.date.accessioned2014-09-23T15:57:35Zen
dc.date.issued2014-05en
dc.date.submittedMay 2014en
dc.date.updated2014-09-23T15:57:35Zen
dc.descriptiontexten
dc.description.abstractEvery business faces risks and the first step in managing risk is making an inventory of the risks that a business faces and getting measure of the exposure to each risk. There are several risks that can affect an oil refinery. Generally recognized risks related to refineries are as follows: crude oil price, crack spread, marketing margin, sales volume, exchange rate, costs, credit and counterparty risk, and hazard risk. In this thesis, among these risk factors, major market price variables, such as crude oil price and crack spread, are regarded as risks or simulation variables; some of the other risks, such as marketing margin, utilization rate, and energy cost, are treated as uncertainties; the others are excluded or fixed. This thesis develops a hypothetical refinery financial model that reasonably approximates real models encountered in practice. To measure the impacts of risk factors on the refinery, three criteria are adopted; present value of net income for ten years, present value of net cash flow, and return on capital employed (ROCE). For sensitivity analysis, five variables are selected: crude oil price, crack spread, marketing margin, utilization rate, and energy cost. In order to measure the risk exposure of an oil refinery, this thesis makes Monte Carlo simulation 10,000 times, by using @RISK software.en
dc.description.abstractEnergy and Earth Resourcesen
dc.description.departmentEnergy and Earth Resourcesen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2152/26105en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.subjectRefiningen
dc.subjectRisk managementen
dc.titleRisk management of oil refineryen
dc.typeThesisen
thesis.degree.departmentEnergy and Earth Resourcesen
thesis.degree.disciplineEnergy and Earth Resourcesen
thesis.degree.grantorThe University of Texas at Austinen
thesis.degree.levelMastersen
thesis.degree.nameMaster of Science in Energy and Earth Resourcesen
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