Passenger travel demand forecasting

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Bhat, Chandra R.
Lawton, T. Keith

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Transportation Research Board of the National Academies


This paper addresses the importance of travel forecasting, the general direction of emerging forecasting methods, the importance of integrating land use and transportation forecasting, and this committee’s relationship to other committees at the Transportation Research Board (TRB). In particular, the movement from trip-based to activity-pattern or activity-scheduling methods of modeling is emphasized. This includes the explicit treatment of tours and scheduling of tours, leading to the emergence of trips as linked elements within a tour. A tour is defined as the linked trips that take a traveler from home to a series of activities and back to home. The importance of substitution of in-home for out-of-home activities is also addressed. There are many different approaches that can be developed, including process models. The committee also addresses the move from an aggregate approach to a microsimulation of individual and household behavior. This is probably a necessity for activity-based models. This report discusses the committee’s role as a bridge between research and practice. It shows directions for immediate future research and discusses proposals for relationships between this committee and other TRB committees.


At the time of publication C.R. Bhat was at the University of Texas at Austin; and T.K. Lawton was at METRO Transportation Department, Portland, Oregon.

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Bhat, C.R., and T.K. Lawton (2000), "Passenger Travel Demand Forecasting", Transportation in the New Millennium: State of the Art and Future Directions, Perspectives from Transportation Research Board Standing Committees, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.