Three essays in macroeconomics and financial economics




Oduncu, Arif

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In the first chapter, I analyze the question that whether the elasticity of intertemporal substitution or risk aversion is more important determinant of precautionary savings. This is an important question since a significant fraction of the capital accumulation is due to precautionary savings according to studies. Thus, knowing the important determinant of precautionary savings will be helpful to understand the capital accumulation mechanism. I look into the effects of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution and risk aversion on precautionary savings separately by performing simulations in order to obtain numerical results. I find that the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is more important determinant than risk aversion. In the second chapter, I study the impact of the introduction of futures trading on the volatility of the underlying spot market for Turkish Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE).The economic literature intensified the debate on the negative or positive impact of futures trading on the stock market volatility. Although there are empirical studies for different countries with mixed results, most of them focus on developed countries. There are a few empirical researches on emerging markets. Analyzing the data, following results are obtained for ISE. First, the results suggest that the introduction of futures trading has decreased the volatility of ISE. Second, the results show that futures trading increases the speed at which information is impounded into spot market prices. Third, the asymmetric responses of volatility to the arrival of news for ISE have increased after the introduction of futures trading. In the third chapter, I investigate the presence of calendar anomalies in ISE by using GARCH models. The presence of calendar anomalies and their persistence presence since their first discovery still remains a puzzle to be solved. On the other hand, there are some claims that general anomalies are much less pronounced after they became known to the public. Most of the studies have examined the developed financial markets. However, it is important to test the calendar effects in data sets that are different from those in which they are originally discovered and so ISE is a good case to test the calendar effects for a developing country.




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