Early COVID-19 Pandemic Modeling: Three Compartmental Model Case Studies From Texas, USA

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dc.creatorPierce, Kelly
dc.creatorHo, Ethan
dc.creatorWang, Xutong
dc.creatorPasco, Remy
dc.creatorDu, Zhanwei
dc.creatorZynda, Greg
dc.creatorSong, Jawon
dc.creatorWell, Gordon
dc.creatorFox, Spencer J.
dc.creatorMeyers, Lauren Ancel
dc.date.accessioned2024-07-29T20:41:36Z
dc.date.available2024-07-29T20:41:36Z
dc.date.issued2021-02
dc.description.abstractThe novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in late 2019 and spread globally in early 2020. Initial reports suggested the associated disease, COVID-19, produced rapid epidemic growth and caused high mortality. As the virus sparked local epidemics in new communities, health systems and policy makers were forced to make decisions with limited information about the spread of the disease. We developed a compartmental model to project COVID-19 healthcare demands that combined information regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics from international reports with local COVID-19 hospital census data to support response efforts in three metropolitan statistical areas in Texas, USA: Austin-Round Rock, Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, and Beaumont-Port Arthur. Our model projects that strict stay-home orders and other social distancing measures could suppress the spread of the pandemic. Our capacity to provide rapid decision-support in response to emerging threats depends on access to data, validated modeling approaches, careful uncertainty quantification, and adequate computational resources.
dc.description.departmentTexas Advanced Computing Center (TACC)
dc.description.departmentIntegrative Biology
dc.description.departmentOperations Research and Industrial Engineering
dc.description.departmentCenter for Space Research
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was supported by CDC Contract CDC contract 75D-301-19-C-05930, NIH Grant 3R01AI151176-01S1, and Tito's Handmade Vodka.
dc.identifier.doi10.1109/MCSE.2020.3037033
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2152/126255
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.26153/tsw/52792
dc.publisherIEEE
dc.source.urihttps://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9254151
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectpandemic modeling
dc.subjectTexas
dc.titleEarly COVID-19 Pandemic Modeling: Three Compartmental Model Case Studies From Texas, USA
dc.typeJournalArticle

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