Model for estimating damages on power systems due to hurricanes




Krishnamurthy, Vaidyanathan

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Hurricanes are a threat to power and telecommunication infrastructure. This work summarizes a method for hurricane characterization using the proposed Localized Tropical Cyclone Intensity Index(LTCII) as a model for estimating damages to Electric power infrastructure. The model considers the effect of storm surge, maximum sustained wind speeds, the duration of time for which the system has been under tropical storm conditions and the area swept by hurricane over land. The measurements focus on major load centers in the system. The validation of the outage data is discussed. The model is evaluated for hurricanes from 2004, 2005 and 2008 hurricane seasons. The degree of influence of various hurricane parameters on the damages suffered by electric power systems are discussed using case studies. The maximum outages are observed to follow a logistic regression curve with respect to log(LTCII), with a correlation of 0.85. The observed restoration times fit a 6th degree polynomial with an R2 = 0.6. The effects of time under tropical storm winds were observed to have great significance in the damage profile observed with the model.



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