COVID-19 reopening strategies at the county level in the face of uncertainty: Multiple Models for Outbreak Decision Support

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dc.creatorShea, Katriona
dc.creatorBorchering, Rebecca K.
dc.creatorProbert, William J.M.
dc.creatorHowerton, Emily
dc.creatorBogich, Tiffany L.
dc.creatorLi, Shouli
dc.creatorvan Panhuis, Willem G.
dc.creatorViboud, Cecile
dc.creatorAguás, Ricardo
dc.creatorBelov, Artur
dc.creatorBhargava, Sanjana H.
dc.creatorCavany, Sean
dc.creatorChang, Joshua C.
dc.creatorChen, Cynthia
dc.creatorChen, Jinghui
dc.creatorChen, Shi
dc.creatorChen, YanqQuan
dc.creatorChilds, Lauren M.
dc.creatorChow, Carson C.
dc.creatorCrooker, Isabel
dc.creatorDe Valle, Sara Y.
dc.creatorEspaña, Guido
dc.creatorFairchild, Geoffrey
dc.creatorGerkin, Richard C.
dc.creatorGermann, Timothy C.
dc.creatorGu, Quanquan
dc.creatorGuan, Xiangyang
dc.creatorGuo, Lihong
dc.creatorHart, Gregory R.
dc.creatorHladish, Thomas J.
dc.creatorHupert, Nathaniel
dc.creatorJanies, Daniel
dc.creatorKerr, Cliff C.
dc.creatorKlein, Daniel J.
dc.creatorKlein, Eili
dc.creatorLin, Gary
dc.creatorManore, Carrie
dc.creatorMeyers, Lauren Ancel
dc.creatorMittler, John
dc.creatorMu, Kunpeng
dc.creatorNúñez, Rafael C.
dc.creatorOidtman, Rachel
dc.creatorPasco, Remy
dc.creatorPastore y Piontti, Ana
dc.creatorPaul, Rajib
dc.creatorPearson, Carl A.B.
dc.creatorPerdomo, Dianela R.
dc.creatorPerkins, T. Alex
dc.creatorPierce, Kelly
dc.creatorPillai, Alexander N.
dc.creatorRael, Rosalyn Cherie
dc.creatorRosenfeld, Katherine
dc.creatorRoss, Chrysm Watson
dc.creatorSpencer, Julie A.
dc.creatorStoltzfu, Arlin B.
dc.creatorToh, Kok Ben
dc.creatorVattikuti, Shashaank
dc.creatorVespignani, Alessandro
dc.creatorWang, Lingxiao
dc.creatorWhite, Lisa
dc.creatorXu, Pan
dc.creatorYang, Yupeng
dc.creatorYogurtcu, Osman N.
dc.creatorZhang, Weitong
dc.creatorZhao, Yanting
dc.creatorZou, Difan
dc.creatorFerrari, Matthew
dc.creatorPannell, David
dc.creatorTildesley, Michael
dc.creatorSeifarth, Jack
dc.creatorJohnson, Elyse
dc.creatorBiggerstaff, Matthew
dc.creatorJohansson, Michael
dc.creatorSlayton, Rachel B.
dc.creatorLevander, John
dc.creatorStazer, Jeff
dc.creatorSalerno, Jessica
dc.creatorRunge, Michael C.
dc.date.accessioned2024-07-29T20:41:38Z
dc.date.available2024-07-29T20:41:38Z
dc.date.issued2020-11
dc.description.abstractPolicymakers make decisions about COVID-19 management in the face of considerable uncertainty. We convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate reopening strategies for a mid- sized county in the United States, in a novel process designed to fully express scientific uncertainty while reducing linguistic uncertainty and cognitive biases. For the scenarios considered, the consensus from 17 distinct models was that a second outbreak will occur within 6 months of reopening, unless schools and non-essential workplaces remain closed. Up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening; non-essential business closures reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Intermediate reopening interventions identified no win-win situations; there was a trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures. Aggregate results captured twice the uncertainty of individual models, providing a more complete expression of risk for decision-making purposes.
dc.description.departmentIntegrative Biology
dc.identifier.doi10.1101/2020.11.03.20225409
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2152/126261
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.26153/tsw/52798
dc.relation.isversionofNow published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences doi: 10.1073/pnas.2207537120
dc.rightsAttribution NonCommercial NoDerivatives 4.0 International
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectreopening strategies
dc.subjectoutbreak decision support
dc.titleCOVID-19 reopening strategies at the county level in the face of uncertainty: Multiple Models for Outbreak Decision Support
dc.typePre-print

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