Evolution of the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model : decomposition of changes over time

dc.contributor.advisorBickel, J. Eric
dc.creatorEghtedari Naeini, Milad
dc.creator.orcid0000-0002-2404-6172
dc.date.accessioned2018-08-09T21:53:57Z
dc.date.available2018-08-09T21:53:57Z
dc.date.created2018-05
dc.date.issued2018-06-27
dc.date.submittedMay 2018
dc.date.updated2018-08-09T21:53:57Z
dc.description.abstractGlobal warming is one of the major environmental challenges of the modern era. Global temperature in 2005 has increased about 0.7°C (1.3°F) compare to 1900, also CO₂ concentrations increased by 100 parts per million (ppm). Estimated expense to decrease the CO₂ concentrations by 1 ppm is about $ 1 trillion (Pielke, 2009). Overcoming global warming is difficult because it is interdisciplinary problem and involves many parts of society. Any proposed policies must balance the economic costs of operations today and future corresponding economic and environmental benefits. There are several studies and models which used economics and mathematical modeling to analyzed the efficiency of different approaches and policies to slowing global warming. Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE) model uses economics and mathematical modeling to analyzed the efficiency of different approaches and policies to slow global warming (William D. Nordhaus, 1994, 2008, 2017, 2017a; William D. Nordhaus & Boyer, 2000). The main distinguishing feature of the DICE model is connecting economy and climate change factors including the carbon cycle, radiative forcing equation, climate change equations, and climate damage relationship. DICE finds optimal emissions control rate by balancing abatement costs of reducing emissions, and economic growth due to avoiding future climate damages. DICE-2016 shows following results under optimal emissions reduction policy, emissions reduction rate for CO₂ is increasing to 36 percent by 2050 and 84 percent by 2100 relative to the baseline. Corresponding, CO₂ concentrations is decreased and increase in global temperature relative to 1900 is decreased to 6.17°F (3.43°C) for 2100 and 6.96°F (3.87°C) for 2200. The net present value abatement cost and climate damages of the optimal policy is $42.6 trillion beneficial relative to no control. This includes $20.4 trillion of abatement costs and $63 trillion of reduced climatic damages. There is still $81.8 trillion climate damage even after taking optimal policy. We compared the outputs of DICE-2016 and DICE-2007 to understand the economic effect of climate change and how climate changing is modeled in these two models. By comparing these models, we obtained estimated economical abatement costs to reduce emissions, social cost of carbon, and impact of climate change and global warming on the economy. We were trying to identify which changes have the most effect on the difference between these two models.
dc.description.departmentOperations Research and Industrial Engineering
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifierdoi:10.15781/T23J39K3F
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2152/67520
dc.language.isoen
dc.subjectClimate changes
dc.subjectDICE
dc.subjectDynamic Integrated Climate-Economy
dc.subjectGlobal warming mitigation
dc.subjectClimate change economic effects
dc.subjectEmissions reduction policy
dc.subjectEstimated abatement costs
dc.subjectGlobal warming economics modeling
dc.subjectGlobal warming mathematical modeling
dc.subjectEconomy and climate change
dc.titleEvolution of the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model : decomposition of changes over time
dc.typeThesis
dc.type.materialtext
thesis.degree.departmentOperations Research and Industrial Engineering
thesis.degree.disciplineOperations Research & Industrial Engineering
thesis.degree.grantorThe University of Texas at Austin
thesis.degree.levelMasters
thesis.degree.nameMaster of Science in Engineering

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