Evolution of the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model : decomposition of changes over time




Eghtedari Naeini, Milad

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Global warming is one of the major environmental challenges of the modern era. Global temperature in 2005 has increased about 0.7°C (1.3°F) compare to 1900, also CO₂ concentrations increased by 100 parts per million (ppm). Estimated expense to decrease the CO₂ concentrations by 1 ppm is about $ 1 trillion (Pielke, 2009). Overcoming global warming is difficult because it is interdisciplinary problem and involves many parts of society. Any proposed policies must balance the economic costs of operations today and future corresponding economic and environmental benefits. There are several studies and models which used economics and mathematical modeling to analyzed the efficiency of different approaches and policies to slowing global warming. Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE) model uses economics and mathematical modeling to analyzed the efficiency of different approaches and policies to slow global warming (William D. Nordhaus, 1994, 2008, 2017, 2017a; William D. Nordhaus & Boyer, 2000). The main distinguishing feature of the DICE model is connecting economy and climate change factors including the carbon cycle, radiative forcing equation, climate change equations, and climate damage relationship. DICE finds optimal emissions control rate by balancing abatement costs of reducing emissions, and economic growth due to avoiding future climate damages. DICE-2016 shows following results under optimal emissions reduction policy, emissions reduction rate for CO₂ is increasing to 36 percent by 2050 and 84 percent by 2100 relative to the baseline. Corresponding, CO₂ concentrations is decreased and increase in global temperature relative to 1900 is decreased to 6.17°F (3.43°C) for 2100 and 6.96°F (3.87°C) for 2200. The net present value abatement cost and climate damages of the optimal policy is $42.6 trillion beneficial relative to no control. This includes $20.4 trillion of abatement costs and $63 trillion of reduced climatic damages. There is still $81.8 trillion climate damage even after taking optimal policy. We compared the outputs of DICE-2016 and DICE-2007 to understand the economic effect of climate change and how climate changing is modeled in these two models. By comparing these models, we obtained estimated economical abatement costs to reduce emissions, social cost of carbon, and impact of climate change and global warming on the economy. We were trying to identify which changes have the most effect on the difference between these two models.


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