Count models : with applications to price plans in mobile telecommunication industry




Kim, Yeolib

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This research assesses the performance of over-dispersed Poisson regression model and negative binomial model with count data. It examines the association between price plan features of mobile phone services and the number of people who adopt the plan. Mobile service data is used to estimate the model with a sample of one million customers running from February 2006 to September 2009. Under three main categories, customer type, age, and handset price, we run the model based on price plan features. Estimates are derived from the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method. Root mean squared error (RMSE) is used to observe the statistical fits of all the regression models. Then, we construct four estimation and holdout samples, leaving out one, three, six, and twelve months. The estimation constitutes the in-sample (IS) and the holdout represents the out-sample (OS). By estimating the IS, we predict the OS. Root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) is checked to see how accurate the prediction is. Results generally suggest that academic year start (AYS), seasonality, duration of months since launch of price plan (DMLP), basic fees, rate with no discount (RND), free call minutes (FCM), free data (FD), free text messaging (FTM), free perk rating (FPR), and handset support all show significant effect. The significance occurs depending on the segment. The RMSE and RMSEP show that the over-dispersed Poisson model outperforms the negative binomial model. Further implications and limitations of the results are discussed.




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