Design of COVID-19 Staged Alert Systems to Ensure Healthcare Capacity with Minimal Closures

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dc.creatorYang, Haoxiang
dc.creatorSürer, Özge
dc.creatorDuque, Daniel
dc.creatorMorton, David P.
dc.creatorSingh, Bismark
dc.creatorFox, Spencer J.
dc.creatorPasco, Remy
dc.creatorPierce, Kelly
dc.creatorRathouz, Paul
dc.creatorDu, Zhanwei
dc.creatorPignone, Michael
dc.creatorEscott, Mark E.
dc.creatorAdler, Stephen I.
dc.creatorJohnston, S. Clairborne
dc.creatorMeyers, Lauren Ancel
dc.date.accessioned2024-07-29T20:41:21Z
dc.date.available2024-07-29T20:41:21Z
dc.date.issued2020-12
dc.description.abstractCommunity mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19, ranging from healthy hygiene to shelter-in-place orders, exact substantial socioeconomic costs. Judicious implementation and relaxation of restrictions amplify their public health benefits while reducing costs. We derive optimal strategies for toggling between mitigation stages using daily COVID-19 hospital admissions. With public compliance, the policy triggers ensure adequate intensive care unit capacity with high probability while minimizing the duration of strict mitigation measures. In comparison, we show that other sensible COVID-19 staging policies, including France's ICU-based thresholds and a widely adopted indicator for reopening schools and businesses, require overly restrictive measures or trigger strict stages too late to avert catastrophic surges. As cities worldwide face future pandemic waves, our findings provide a robust strategy for tracking COVID-19 hospital admissions as an early indicator of hospital surges and enacting staged measures to ensure integrity of the health system, safety of the health workforce, and public confidence.
dc.description.departmentTexas Advanced Computing Center (TACC)
dc.description.departmentIntegrative Biology
dc.description.departmentDell Medical School
dc.description.departmentOperations Research and Industrial Engineering
dc.identifier.doi10.1101/2020.11.26.20152520
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2152/126211
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.26153/tsw/52748
dc.relation.isversionofNow published in Nature Communications doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-23989-x
dc.rightsAttribution NonCommercial NoDerivatives 4.0 International
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.source.urihttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.26.20152520v2
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectalert systems
dc.subjecthealthcare capacity
dc.titleDesign of COVID-19 Staged Alert Systems to Ensure Healthcare Capacity with Minimal Closures
dc.typePre-print

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