Short-Term Indicators of Job Training Program Effects on Long-Term Participant Earnings




Geraci, Vincent J.

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Ray Marshall Center for the Study of Human Resources


This study assesses the validity of alternative short-term indicators used to predict long-term earnings effects from participation in employment and training programs. The Continuous Longitudinal Manpower Survey of CETA participants who enrolled in FY 1976 is utilized to estimate the net program impacts on participant earnings in 1977-1979. These estimated impacts serve as a criterion for assessing candidate short-term indicators based on participant outcomes at termination and in the subsequent three to nine months. Among the empirical findings, placement at termination is the key indicator of program performance, and short-term employment and earnings outcomes add significant information about long-term earnings effects, beyond that contained in immediate outcomes. The policy implications for the implementation of performance standards under JTPA are traced.


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