A joint vehicle holdings (type and vintage) and primary driver assignment model with an application for California

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Vyas, Gaurav

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Transportation sector has been a major contributing factor to the overall emissions of most pollutants and thus their impacts on the environment. Among all transportation activities, on-road travel accounts for most part of the Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fuel use. It also has a very un-desirable impact on the transportation network conditions increasing the traffic congestion levels. The main aim of transportation planning agencies is to implement the policy changes that will reduce automobile dependency and increase transit and non-motorized modes usage. However, planning agencies can come up with proactive economic, land-use and transportation policies provided they have a model which is sensitive to all the above mentioned factors to predict the vehicle fleet composition and usage of households. Moreover, the type of vehicle that a household gets (vehicle type choice) and the annual mileage (usage) associated with that vehicle is very closely related to the person in the household who uses that vehicle the most (allocation to primary driver). So, it is no longer possible to view all these decisions separately. Instead, we need to model all these decisions- vehicle type choice, usage, and allocation to primary driver simultaneously at a household level. In this study, we estimate and apply a joint household-level model of the number of vehicles owned by the household, the vehicle type choice of each vehicle, the annual mileage on each vehicle, as well as the individual assigned as the primary driver for each vehicle. A version of the proposed model system currently serves as the engine for a household vehicle composition and evolution simulator, which itself has been embedded within the larger SimAGENT (for Simulator of Activities, Greenhouse emissions, Networks, and Travel) activity-based travel and emissions forecasting system for the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) planning region.



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