Early Real-Time Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number of Emerging Infectious Diseases

dc.contributor.utaustinauthorMeyers, Lauren Ancelen_US
dc.creatorDavoudi, Bahmanen_US
dc.creatorMiller, Joel C.en_US
dc.creatorMeza, Rafaelen_US
dc.creatorMeyers, Lauren Ancelen_US
dc.creatorEarn, David J. D.en_US
dc.creatorPourbohloul, Babaken_US
dc.description.abstractWhen an infectious disease strikes a population, the number of newly reported cases is often the only available information during the early stages of the outbreak. An important goal of early outbreak analysis is to obtain a reliable estimate for the basic reproduction number, R-0. Over the past few years, infectious disease epidemic processes have gained attention from the physics community. Much of the work to date, however, has focused on the analysis of an epidemic process in which the disease has already spread widely within a population; conversely, very little attention has been paid, in the physics literature or elsewhere, to formulating the initial phase of an outbreak. Careful analysis of this phase is especially important as it could provide policymakers with insight on how to effectively control an epidemic in its initial stage. We present a novel method, based on the principles of network theory, that enables us to obtain a reliable real-time estimate of the basic reproduction number at an early stage of an outbreak. Our method takes into account the possibility that the infectious period has a wide distribution and that the degree distribution of the underlying contact network is heterogeneous. We validate our analytical framework with numerical simulations.en_US
dc.description.departmentInstitute for Cellular and Molecular Biologyen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipCanadian Institutes of Health Research MOP-81273 PPR-79231 PTL-97126en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipMichael Smith Foundation for Health Researchen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipBritish Columbia Ministry of Health (Pandemic Preparedness Modeling Project)en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipJ. S. Mc Donnell Foundationen_US
dc.identifier.citationDavoudi, Bahman, Joel C. Miller, Rafael Meza, Lauren Ancel Meyers, David JD Earn, and Babak Pourbohloul. "Early real-time estimation of the basic reproduction number of emerging infectious diseases." Physical Review X 2, no. 3 (2012): 031005.en_US
dc.relation.ispartofUT Faculty/Researcher Worksen_US
dc.relation.ispartofserialPhysical Review Xen_US
dc.rightsAdministrative deposit of works to Texas ScholarWorks: This works author(s) is or was a University faculty member, student or staff member; this article is already available through open access or the publisher allows a PDF version of the article to be freely posted online. The library makes the deposit as a matter of fair use (for scholarly, educational, and research purposes), and to preserve the work and further secure public access to the works of the University.en_US
dc.subjectaccelerated stochastic simulationen_US
dc.subjectfinal size relationen_US
dc.subjectepidemic modelsen_US
dc.subjecttransmission dynamicsen_US
dc.subjecth1n1 2009en_US
dc.titleEarly Real-Time Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number of Emerging Infectious Diseasesen_US

Access full-text files

Original bundle

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
1.07 MB
Adobe Portable Document Format

License bundle

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
1.65 KB
Plain Text