Bargaining and fighting in the moonlight

dc.contributor.advisorLin, Tse-minen
dc.contributor.advisorWagner, R. Harrison (Robert Harrison)en
dc.contributor.committeeMemberTrubowitz, Peteren
dc.contributor.committeeMemberMcDonald, Patricken
dc.contributor.committeeMemberGranato, Jamesen
dc.creatorCohen, Matthew Leonarden
dc.date.accessioned2011-09-27T17:04:25Zen
dc.date.available2011-09-27T17:04:25Zen
dc.date.issued2011-08en
dc.date.submittedAugust 2011en
dc.date.updated2011-09-27T17:04:39Zen
dc.descriptiontexten
dc.description.abstract"Audience costs" models of international relations suggest a purely informational role for domestic politics in conflict settings. Here, domestic politics serve as a rich signal of belligerents' true intentions, allowing them to more quickly resolve disagreements, decreasing the likelihood and duration of war. But if belligerents can have different beliefs about publicly available information, then domestic politics might confuse rather than clarify conflict situations, increasing the likelihood and duration of war. I present empirical evidence of conventional "audience costs" models' shortcomings in explaining the dynamics of the US counterinsurgency efforts in Iraq and the response of Iraqi insurgents to those efforts. I then develop a formal model to show how differences in beliefs between insurgents and counterinsurgents about domestic political audiences in Iraq may have contributed to the prolonged nature of the conflict. I argue that the underlying cause of the conflict's duration is disagreement between belligerents about whether and how Iraqi civilians contribute to a successful counterinsurgency, leading belligerents to disagree not only before fighting about who is likely to win, but during fighting about who is actually winning.en
dc.description.departmentGovernmenten
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.slug2152/ETD-UT-2011-08-4144en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2152/ETD-UT-2011-08-4144en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.subjectConflicten
dc.subjectIraqen
dc.subjectBargainingen
dc.subjectAudience costsen
dc.subjectMutual optimismen
dc.subjectHarsanyi doctrineen
dc.subjectRational choiceen
dc.subjectWaren
dc.subjectInsurgencyen
dc.subjectCounterinsurgencyen
dc.subjectCiviliansen
dc.titleBargaining and fighting in the moonlighten
dc.type.genrethesisen
thesis.degree.departmentGovernmenten
thesis.degree.disciplineGovernmenten
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Texas at Austinen
thesis.degree.levelDoctoralen
thesis.degree.nameDoctor of Philosophyen

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