Comparison of Four-Step Versus Tour-Based Models for Prediction of Travel Behavior Before and After Transportation System Changes




Ferdous, Nazneen
Vana, Lakshmi
Bowman, John L.
Pendyala, Ram M.
Giaimo, Gregory
Bhat, Chandra R.
Schmitt, David
Bradley, Mark
Anderson, Rebekah

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Transportation Research Board of the National Academies


The main objective of this study is to examine the performance of the MORPC trip-based and tour-based frameworks in the context of three specific projects started and completed within the past 20 years in the Columbus metropolitan area. Regional- and project-level comparisons of the performance of the trip-based and tour-based models are made for three scenario years: 1990, 2000 and 2005. The regional-level analysis is undertaken in the context of four travel dimensions based on data availability and observed data to model output compatibility. These four dimensions are vehicle ownership, work flow distributions, work flow distribution by time-ofday, and average work trip travel times. The tour-based model performs better overall than the trip-based model for all these four dimensions. The project-level comparative assessment of the predicted link volumes from the trip-based and the tour-based models is undertaken with respect to the observed link counts and by roadway functional class. The results did not show any clear trends in terms of performance of the models by functional class or year.


At the time of publication N. Ferdous was at Resource Systems Group, Inc., L. Vana was at the London Business School, J.L. Bowman was at Bowman Research and Consulting, R.M. Pendyala was at Arizona State University, G. Giaimo and R. Anderson were at the Ohio Department of Transportation, C.R. Bhat was at the University of Texas at Austin, D. Schmitt was at AECOM, and M. Bradley was at Mark Bradley Research and Consulting.

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Ferdous, N., L. Vana, J.L. Bowman, R.M. Pendyala, G. Giaimo, C.R. Bhat, D. Schmitt, M. Bradley, and R. Anderson (2012), "Comparison of Four-Step Versus Tour-Based Models for Prediction of Travel Behavior Before and After Transportation System Changes," Transportation Research Record, Vol. 2303, pp. 46-60.