The Post-Inf European Missile Balance: Thinking About NATO's Deterrence Strategy (Summer 2020)
Department
Description
The demise of the INF Treaty in 2019 raises questions about
the future of deterrence in Europe. For more than a decade,
Russia has sought to leverage the potential of precision-strike
technologies to strengthen its missile arsenal, having developed
systems that either violated INF range regulations or were just
below the threshold. As the termination of the treaty removes
any outstanding legal barriers to the deployment of ground-based, “theater-range” systems, questions related to the missile
balance become central to European security. Of particular
importance is the Baltic region, where Russia appears to have
acquired a position of “local escalation dominance” that could
drive a strategic wedge within NATO. In this essay, we assess
what a post-INF Treaty context may mean in light of recent NATO
efforts to deter Russia. We argue that the introduction of ground-based, theater-range missiles could help NATO restore the local
strategic balance in the Baltic region, thereby strengthening
deterrence and helping to create the necessary leverage to get
Russia back into meaningful arms control talks in the future.