Conditional probabilities of precipitation types in the central Texas area as determined by thermal parameters
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Past winters in Central Texas are examined to determine the thickness values between atmospheric pressure levels necessary to produce rain, freezing rain, ice pellets, or snow. This is not a synoptic study of the weather systems that are conducive to frozen-precipitation occurrences in Central Texas, rather it is an objective study designed to determine the thickness values necessary for objective forecasting of these different precipitation types. Many of the studies in the past have focused on the forecasting of rain versus snow. The thesis research not only covers this forecasting problem but also treats the intermediate types of precipitation such as ice pellets, and freezing precipitation. A number of single and joint predictors are examined. It is concluded that surface temperature and the mean temperature in the 850-1000 mb layer are most valuable in the prediction of precipitation types in Central Texas. Critical values of the various predictors for various conditional probability levels and various precipitation types are obtained.