The "Science" of Prediction: A Battery of Blind Back-Dated Validation Tests of PredictionWorks' New Venture Assessment System
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Date
2016-11-01
Authors
Butler, John Sibley
Cadenhead, Gary M.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
McCombs School of Business, The University of Texas at Austin
ICĀ² Institute, The University of Texas at Austin
ICĀ² Institute, The University of Texas at Austin
Abstract
This report examines the results of a research partnership between PredictionWorks, a private firm, and The University of Texas at Austin (McCombs School of Business and the ICĀ² Institute). PredictionWorks' New Venture Assessor is an assessment system which attempts to predict the success of new ventures based on their business plans. In this study the principals of PredictionWorks applied their methodology to ten past ventures from the Austin region in a set of blind back-dated validation tests.