The "Science" of Prediction: A Battery of Blind Back-Dated Validation Tests of PredictionWorks' New Venture Assessment System

Date

2016-11-01

Authors

Butler, John Sibley
Cadenhead, Gary M.

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McCombs School of Business, The University of Texas at Austin
ICĀ² Institute, The University of Texas at Austin

Abstract

This report examines the results of a research partnership between PredictionWorks, a private firm, and The University of Texas at Austin (McCombs School of Business and the ICĀ² Institute). PredictionWorks' New Venture Assessor is an assessment system which attempts to predict the success of new ventures based on their business plans. In this study the principals of PredictionWorks applied their methodology to ten past ventures from the Austin region in a set of blind back-dated validation tests.

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