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dc.creatorAraz, Ozgur M.en_US
dc.creatorDamien, Paulen_US
dc.creatorPaltiel, David A.en_US
dc.creatorBurke, Seanen_US
dc.creatorvan de Geijn, Bryceen_US
dc.creatorGalvani, Alisonen_US
dc.creatorMeyers, Lauren A.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2016-10-28T19:54:04Z
dc.date.available2016-10-28T19:54:04Z
dc.date.issued2012-06en_US
dc.identifierdoi:10.15781/T2FF3M30H
dc.identifier.citationAraz, Ozgur M., Paul Damien, David A. Paltiel, Sean Burke, Bryce van de Geijn, Alison Galvani, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. "Simulating school closure policies for cost effective pandemic decision making." BMC public health, Vol. 12, No. 1 (Jun., 2012): 1.en_US
dc.identifier.issn1471-2458en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2152/43374
dc.description.abstractAround the globe, school closures were used sporadically to mitigate the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. However, such closures can detrimentally impact economic and social life. Methods: Here, we couple a decision analytic approach with a mathematical model of influenza transmission to estimate the impact of school closures in terms of epidemiological and cost effectiveness. Our method assumes that the transmissibility and the severity of the disease are uncertain, and evaluates several closure and reopening strategies that cover a range of thresholds in school-aged prevalence (SAP) and closure durations. Results: Assuming a willingness to pay per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) threshold equal to the US per capita GDP ($46,000), we found that the cost effectiveness of these strategies is highly dependent on the severity and on a willingness to pay per QALY. For severe pandemics, the preferred strategy couples the earliest closure trigger (0.5% SAP) with the longest duration closure (24 weeks) considered. For milder pandemics, the preferred strategies also involve the earliest closure trigger, but are shorter duration (12 weeks for low transmission rates and variable length for high transmission rates). Conclusions: These findings highlight the importance of obtaining early estimates of pandemic severity and provide guidance to public health decision-makers for effectively tailoring school closures strategies in response to a newly emergent influenza pandemic.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipModels of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) of the National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS) at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) U01 gen_US
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.relation.ispartofen_US
dc.rightsAdministrative deposit of works to Texas ScholarWorks: This works author(s) is or was a University faculty member, student or staff member; this article is already available through open access or the publisher allows a PDF version of the article to be freely posted online. The library makes the deposit as a matter of fair use (for scholarly, educational, and research purposes), and to preserve the work and further secure public access to the works of the University.en_US
dc.subjecttransmission dynamicsen_US
dc.subjectinfectious-diseasesen_US
dc.subjecth1n1 2009en_US
dc.subjectinfluenzaen_US
dc.subjectimpacten_US
dc.subjectstrategiesen_US
dc.subjectepidemicen_US
dc.subjectinterventionsen_US
dc.subjectstrainen_US
dc.subjectmodelen_US
dc.subjectpublic, environmental & occupational healthen_US
dc.titleSimulating School Closure Policies for Cost Effective Pandemic Decision Makingen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.description.departmentIntegrative Biologyen_US
dc.rights.restrictionOpenen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/1471-2458-12-449en_US
dc.contributor.utaustinauthorDamien, Paulen_US
dc.contributor.utaustinauthorBurke, Seanen_US
dc.contributor.utaustinauthorvan de Geijn, Bryceen_US
dc.contributor.utaustinauthorMeyers, Lauren A.en_US
dc.relation.ispartofserialBMC Public Healthen_US


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