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    Committed Retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers Over the Next 30 Years Inferred by Transient Model Calibration

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    Date
    2015-12
    Author
    Goldberg, D. N.
    Heimbach, P.
    Joughin, I.
    Smith, B.
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    Abstract
    A glacial flow model of Smith, Pope and Kohler Glaciers is calibrated by means of control methods against time varying, annually resolved observations of ice height and velocities, covering the period 2002 to 2011. The inversion - termed "transient calibration" - produces an optimal set of time-mean, spatially varying parameters together with a time-evolving state that accounts for the transient nature of observations and the model dynamics. Serving as an optimal initial condition, the estimated state for 2011 is used, with no additional forcing, for predicting grounded ice volume loss and grounding line retreat over the ensuing 30 years. The transiently calibrated model predicts a near-steady loss of grounded ice volume of approximately 21 km(3) a(-1) over this period, as well as loss of 33 km(2) a(-1) grounded area. We contrast this prediction with one obtained following a commonly used "snapshot" or steady-state inversion, which does not consider time dependence and assumes all observations to be contemporaneous. Transient calibration is shown to achieve a better fit with observations of thinning and grounding line retreat histories, and yields a quantitatively different projection with respect to ice volume loss and ungrounding. Sensitivity studies suggest large near-future levels of unforced, i.e., committed sea level contribution from these ice streams under reasonable assumptions regarding uncertainties of the unknown parameters.
    Department
    Computational Science, Engineering, and Mathematics
    Subject
    pine island glacier
    ice-sheet model
    west antarctica
    state estimation
    general-circulation
    thwaites glaciers
    snow accumulation
    data
    assimilation
    mass-balance
    flow model
    geography, physical
    geosciences, multidisciplinary
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/2152/41006
    Citation
    Goldberg, D. N., Patrick Heimbach, Ian Joughin, and Ben Smith. "Committed retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers over the next 30 years inferred by transient model calibration." The Cryosphere 9, no. 6 (Dec., 2015): 2429-2446.
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    • facebook
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    • CONTACT US
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    © The University of Texas at Austin