A continuous-time model of departure time choice for urban shopping trips
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This paper proposes a continuous-time hazard duration model for urban shopping trip departure time choice. The time frame for the analysis of departure time is the entire day. The continuous-time model uses a non-parametric baseline hazard distribution, employs a non-parametric representation for the time-varying effect of covariates, and accommodates time-varying covariates. These econometric issues are important to recognize and consider in a departure time model spanning the entire day. The model also accommodates unobserved heterogeneity and recognizes the "rounding" of reported departure times by individuals in surveys to an integral multiple of five minutes. The continuous-time model is estimated using shopping trip data from the 1996 activity survey collected in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area. The effects of individual and household socio-demographics, employment attributes, and trip-related characteristics on departure time choice are presented and discussed. Application of the continuous-time model to forecast temporal shifts in shopping trip-making due to changes in socio-demographic characteristics and trip-chaining behavior is demonstrated. The use of the formulation as a powerful evaluation tool to manage and influence traffic patterns through dynamic congestion pricing control schemes is also highlighted.