Modeling trip duration for mobile source emissions forecasting
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The distribution of the duration of trips in a metropolitan area is an important input to estimating area-wide running loss emissions, operating mode fractions and vehicle miles of travel (VMT) accumulated on local roads in the region. In the current paper, we formulate and implement a methodology for modeling trip durations. The approach develops a log-linear regression model of the duration of trips as a function of trip purpose, time-of-day of the trip start, and other land- use and socio-demographic characteristics of the zone of trip start, using vehicle trip data from household travel surveys and supplementary zonal demographic/land-use data. A distinguishing characteristic of the methodology is the straightforward manner in which model parameters estimated from vehicle trip data can be applied to obtain zonal-level trip duration distributions. The modeling framework is applied to develop trip duration distributions for the Dallas-Fort Worth area of Texas.