On the modeling disrupted networks using dynamic traffic assignment

A traffic network can be disrupted by work zones and incidents. Calculating diversion rate is a core issue for estimating demand changes, which is needed to select a suitable work zone configuration and work schedule. An urban network can provide multiple alternative routes, so traffic assignment is the best tool to analyze diversion rates on network level and the local level. Compared with the results from static traffic assignment, dynamic traffic assignment predicts a higher network diversion rate in the morning peak period and off-peak period, a lower local diversion rate in the morning peak period. Additionally, travelers may benefit from knowing real-time traffic condition to avoid the traffic incident areas. Deploying variable message signs (VMSs) is one possible solution. One key issue is optimizing locations of VMSs. A planning model is created to solve the problem. The objective is minimize total system travel time. The link transmission model is used to evaluate the performance of the network, and bounded rational behavior is used to represent drivers' response to VMSs. A self-adapting genetic algorithm (GA) is formulated to solve the problem. This model selects the best locations to provide VMSs, typically places are that allow travelers to switch to alternative routes. Results show that adding more VMSs beyond a certain threshold level does not further reduce travel time.