On Assessing the Impact of Transportation Policies on Fuel Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Using a Household Vehicle Fleet Simulator
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The carbon footprint of personal travel is dependent on the composition of the vehicle fleet and the extent to which vehicles of different types are utilized. Transportation model systems have previously not explicitly incorporated the ability to forecast vehicle fleet composition and utilization patterns of households in a region. In the absence of such modeling capability, it is difficult to predict the energy and environmental impacts of alternative policy, market, and technology scenarios in the future. This paper describes the application of a comprehensive vehicle fleet composition and evolution model system that is capable of taking a base year vehicle fleet and evolving it over time in annual time steps through the events of vehicle disposal, replacement, and acquisition. Results of the scenario application exercise documented in this paper demonstrate the efficacy of the model system.
At the time of publication Rajesh Paleti was at Parsons Brinckerhoff, Chandra R. Bhat was at the University of Texas at Austin, Ram M. Pendyala was at Arizona State University, Konstadinos G. Goulias was at the University of California Santa Barbara, Thomas J. Adler was at Resource Systems Group, Inc., and Aniss Bahreinian was at California Energy Commission.