Browsing by Subject "outbreak decision support"

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    COVID-19 reopening strategies at the county level in the face of uncertainty: Multiple Models for Outbreak Decision Support
    (2020-11) Shea, Katriona; Borchering, Rebecca K.; Probert, William J.M.; Howerton, Emily; Bogich, Tiffany L.; Li, Shouli; van Panhuis, Willem G.; Viboud, Cecile; Aguás, Ricardo; Belov, Artur; Bhargava, Sanjana H.; Cavany, Sean; Chang, Joshua C.; Chen, Cynthia; Chen, Jinghui; Chen, Shi; Chen, YanqQuan; Childs, Lauren M.; Chow, Carson C.; Crooker, Isabel; De Valle, Sara Y.; España, Guido; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Gerkin, Richard C.; Germann, Timothy C.; Gu, Quanquan; Guan, Xiangyang; Guo, Lihong; Hart, Gregory R.; Hladish, Thomas J.; Hupert, Nathaniel; Janies, Daniel; Kerr, Cliff C.; Klein, Daniel J.; Klein, Eili; Lin, Gary; Manore, Carrie; Meyers, Lauren Ancel; Mittler, John; Mu, Kunpeng; Núñez, Rafael C.; Oidtman, Rachel; Pasco, Remy; Pastore y Piontti, Ana; Paul, Rajib; Pearson, Carl A.B.; Perdomo, Dianela R.; Perkins, T. Alex; Pierce, Kelly; Pillai, Alexander N.; Rael, Rosalyn Cherie; Rosenfeld, Katherine; Ross, Chrysm Watson; Spencer, Julie A.; Stoltzfu, Arlin B.; Toh, Kok Ben; Vattikuti, Shashaank; Vespignani, Alessandro; Wang, Lingxiao; White, Lisa; Xu, Pan; Yang, Yupeng; Yogurtcu, Osman N.; Zhang, Weitong; Zhao, Yanting; Zou, Difan; Ferrari, Matthew; Pannell, David; Tildesley, Michael; Seifarth, Jack; Johnson, Elyse; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Johansson, Michael; Slayton, Rachel B.; Levander, John; Stazer, Jeff; Salerno, Jessica; Runge, Michael C.
    Policymakers make decisions about COVID-19 management in the face of considerable uncertainty. We convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate reopening strategies for a mid- sized county in the United States, in a novel process designed to fully express scientific uncertainty while reducing linguistic uncertainty and cognitive biases. For the scenarios considered, the consensus from 17 distinct models was that a second outbreak will occur within 6 months of reopening, unless schools and non-essential workplaces remain closed. Up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening; non-essential business closures reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Intermediate reopening interventions identified no win-win situations; there was a trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures. Aggregate results captured twice the uncertainty of individual models, providing a more complete expression of risk for decision-making purposes.