Browsing by Subject "contact networks"

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Creation of a contact networks for lions in the Serengeti National Park
(2009-05) Brady, Melissa
Epidemics can have a devastating effect on wildlife, particularly in populations already at risk. One such example is the spread of canine distemper virus (CDV) among lion prides of the Serengeti. An epidemic of CDV killed many lions in the Serengeti National Park in the early nineties. Network theory can be used to characterize the spread of these epidemics by adding a spatial and social structure to epidemic models. In this paper, we work to create an accurate contact network that captures the social dynamics of lion prides within the two week infectious period for CDV. For this we will use data that has been collected about the social lives of African Lions. These contact networks can then be used to run chain binomial and percolation epidemic models.
Surveillance Testing for Rapid Detection of Outbreaks in Facilities
(2021-10) Ding, Yanyue; Agrawal, Sudesh K.; Cao, Jincheng; Meyers, Lauren Ancel; Hasenbein, John J.
This paper develops an agent-based disease spread model on a contact network in an effort to guide efforts at surveillance testing in small to moderate facilities such as nursing homes and meat-packing plants. The model employs Monte Carlo simulations of viral spread sample paths in the contact network. The original motivation was to detect COVID-19 outbreaks quickly in such facilities, but the model can be applied to any communicable disease. In particular, the model provides guidance on how many test to administer each day and on the importance of the testing order among staff or workers.