Browsing by Subject "Voting behavior"

Now showing 1 - 7 of 7

Anger and the politics of compromise
(2015-12) Blank, Joshua M.; Shaw, Daron R., 1966-; Albertson, Bethany; McDaniel, Eric; Roberts, Brian; Jessee, Stephen
In recent years, the inability of the federal government to respond to public policy crises with a timely, commensurate solution has been a seemingly regular cause for alarm. These inactions have not been due to constitutional restraints nor, should we take them at their word, the desire of the citizenry, but have most often resulted -- and in some cases emanated -- from the inability or unwillingness of elected officials to regularly engage in compromise. Public opinion polls conducted during many of these crises have routinely found a citizenry more than willing to endorse the principles of compromise, but the officials that they have elected, and those that they continue to elect, appear increasingly emboldened to engage in behaviors that hinder the reaching of a commendable solution. This discontinuity, between public expectations and the actions of many prominent, elected officials, leaves one left to ponder if, in the current age, the representational link between citizen and legislator is broken? I will argue that this link is, in fact, not broken (at least on this particular point), and that anger at politicians and the political system makes citizens, and especially the most politically engaged among them, endorse behaviors by elected officials that hinder compromise without influencing citizens' belief in the normative good of compromise itself.
Candidate-centered voting and political sophistication in Brazil 2002
(2009-12) Slosar, Mary Catherine; Luskin, Robert C.; Shaw, Daron R.
More and more, elections around the world seem to be won or lost on the basis of the candidates’ personal qualities rather than their policies. Despite its prevalence and consequences, we still know very little about what explains such candidate-centered voting, particularly in new democratic contexts. I argue that variation in candidate-centered voting is largely a function of political sophistication: voters with higher levels of political sophistication are better able to process information relating to policy and performance, which tends to be more cognitively demanding than information relating to candidate’s personalities. To test this argument, I estimate models of vote choice and electoral utility using survey data from the 2002 presidential election in Brazil. The results largely support my contention that political sophistication conditions the weight of candidate considerations relative to policy and performance considerations.
Careful crackdowns : human rights and campaigning on public security in Latin America
(2012-05) Uang, Randy Sunwin; Hunter, Wendy; Weyland, Kurt; Dietz, Henry; Madrid, Raul; Greene, Kenneth
Crime and violence are regularly seen as being ripe for politicians to turn into campaign issues and win votes. This study argues, in contrast, that success on public security is not so automatic: human rights values constrain the use of security and the winning of votes on it. Even in Latin American countries, where voters' concerns about rampant crime and violence are among the highest in the world, considerations of human rights combine with low trust in security forces to restrict the viability of the issue in key ways. Examination of presidential campaigns in Colombia in 1994, 1998, 2002, and 2010 supports this claim. Success on security is a two-step process: invoking the issue and then gaining voter support on the topic. Usability depends on the absence of recent repression and the degree of organization of security threats. Then, winning votes on it depends on having a civilian background, a campaign that balances security with other issues, and messages of careful enforcement. These messages of careful enforcement promise targeted, deliberate use of security forces' enforcement activities in a way that pays attention to human rights, rather than promising unbridled enforcement, increased punishment, or programs of long-term prevention. This study therefore shows how candidates are forced to walk a fine line between promising to establish order and promising to protect basic rights and liberties. These findings are powerful, providing an understanding of public security in electoral campaigns that maintains a much closer fit with empirical reality than existing research. The results also provide a critique of the sociological school of vote choice and points to ways in which ownership of the issue of security may be leased away. Furthermore, because the results are driven by the spread of human rights values, the results demonstrate the importance of quick shifts in political culture as a factor that explains changes in political patterns.
Cross-pressured by issue ownership : a new theory of persuasion and campaign tageting
(2023-08-07) Heise, Sarah; Shaw, Daron R., 1966-; Wlezien, Chris; McDaniel, Eric; Jessee, Stephen; McDermott, Monika
In the hyper-polarized environment of modern U.S. elections, how can campaigns persuade voters? While persuasion has been considered a key part of a functioning democracy (Berelson et al, 2950, Key 1966), with stronger party attachments, how many individual voters are movable? Furter, is it worth it for campaigns to focus on persuasion when identifying and mobilizing like-minded partisans seems so much easier, cost effective, and efficient (Panagopoulos 2021)? This dissertation is focused on what persuasion might look like in the context of contemporary American electoral politics. First, I introduce a new theory of voting behavior that combines issue ownership and theories of cross-pressures. I argue that these voters are persuadable, and that campaigns can target them to increase partisan defection. Second, I find that about seven percent of Americans are cross-pressured in this way, and that they are more likely to defect on Election Day. Third, I utilize a survey experiment to explore how candidates can campaign on owned issues to increase their electoral vote share. Finally, I explore the findings from a field experiment conducted in Texas during the 2022 Gubernatorial Election.
Issue cross-pressures and campaign effects : connecting the right voters with the right message
(2016-08) Endres, Kyle Leon; Shaw, Daron R., 1966-; Albertson, Bethany L; Luskin, Robert C; Panagopoulos, Costas
The overwhelming majority of partisans share common ground with the opposing party on at least some policy issues. It has long been proffered that presidential campaigns can persuade out-partisans by highlighting their shared policy goals. Today, political campaigns are believed to be better at identifying voters who may be receptive to their message and identifying voters who have the same policy positions as the candidates than in any previous presidential election. Armed with data on which voters should be targeted and which issues are the right issues to emphasize when targeting these voters, campaigns should be able to more efficiently and more effectively mobilize and persuade voters. I use data and contact records from recent presidential elections to demonstrate that by measuring the campaigns−specifically the issues they choose to address−the large percentage of cross-pressured partisans can be narrowed to a subset of cross-pressured partisans who agree with the opposing party’s presidential campaign on one or more the campaign issues. This smaller group of cross-pressured partisans is more likely to both cross party lines on Election Day and abstain from voting all together when the opposing party contacts them with the right issue message.
The young American voter in the new millennium
(2017-08-09) Kelly, Kristin Joyce; Shaw, Daron R., 1966-; Albertson, Bethany; Wlezien, Christopher; Jarvis Hardesty, Sharon; Jessee, Stephen
A puzzling age gap in vote choice appeared between young and older Americans between the 2004 and the 2012 presidential elections in the United States. This dissertation seeks to explain the emergence and persistence of this gap, and more generally to understand when the usual processes of political socialization might be disrupted. I posit that in today’s polarized political environment, young people are more susceptible to the short-term forces affecting campaigns and elections—namely national context, performance issues, and candidates—due to their malleable partisan preferences. Older Americans, with more crystallized partisan attachments and better-defined political predispositions, are not as easily swayed by national conditions and the short-term forces impacting politics. While young people usually do not pay much attention to nor engage much with politics, the prevailing national conditions and turbulence of the political environment from 2004 to 2012 made politics salient to young people, leading to a performance issue-driven shift in attitudes and opinions about candidate and party competency on handling major problems facing the country. In the future, I expect we might see another age gap in vote choice when party competency is questioned on the large salient issues of an election, particularly on issues of foreign policy, and the national context strongly favors one party over the other.
Voting behavior in violence-plagued new democracies : crime voting in Mexico’s recent presidential elections
(2014-05) Putnam, Kate Marie; Greene, Kenneth F., 1969-
Crime and violence are central issues for citizens in new democracies, many of which are increasingly threatened by organized crime and “brown areas” of lawlessness. The impact of crime concerns on vote choice, however, has been largely overlooked in the existing literature on voting behavior, which has centered on the role of partisanship, clientelistic linkages, or economic voting in explaining electoral outcomes. In this paper, I argue that crime voting explains much of vote choice in high crime new democracies. Using Mexico as a representative case of a new democracy facing rising violence, I find that crime considerations significantly affect vote choice in the country’s recent presidential elections. In 2006, crime views had up to five times the effect on vote choice as economic considerations. In 2012, despite stronger partisanship, clientelism, and economic effects, and a dearth of candidate attention to the issue, crime perceptions remained a significant predictor of vote choice. This finding suggests crime matters to vote choice and should be incorporated into models of voting behavior in violence-plagued new democracies.