Browsing by Subject "Paper"

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Can Machine Learning in Finance Inform Clinical Decision Support?
(2019-12-12) Bauguess, Scott W.
Before I dive in, I think it makes sense to start with some level setting remarks about the definition of machine learning. I gave my first machine learning talk in 2015. At that time, Wikipedia defined the term as “the study of algorithms that could learn from data.” By 2018 their posted definition was “a field in computer science that gives computers the ability to learn without being explicitly programmed.” As of this week, Wikipedia says it is the “study of algorithms and statistical models that computer systems use to perform a specific task without using explicit instructions, relying on patterns and inference instead.” So, when we talk about regulating the use machine learning, we need to first recognize that it is a bit of an elusive concept. The semantics have changed over time, and I suspect they will continue to do so. This can be a challenge to a regulator seeking to draw bright lines around practices that use it.
The Construction of Next Great Cyber Wall?
(2020-09-01) Canann, Taylor J.
Episteme, demonstration, and explanation: A fresh look at Aristotle’s Posterior Analytics
(Springer, 2013-07-30) Salmieri, Gregory; Bronstein, David; Charles, David; Lennox, James G.
A symposium on Aristotle’s Posterior Analytics in Metascience invites the question of how the treatise relates to philosophy of science and epistemology, as these fields are generally understood. It is in the hope of shedding some light on this issue that I propose to discuss Aristotle’s conception of epistēmē, his name for the Posterior Analytics’ subject matter. The term is variously translated “science,” “knowledge,” and “understanding,” but none of these options is ideal, and the difficulty in finding a suitable translation attests to the distance between Aristotle’s thought and our own. Appreciating this somewhat alien concept will help us to better frame some interpretive questions about Aristotle’s project in the Posterior Analytics and some philosophical questions about how his positions relate to the issues of interest to contemporary epistemologists and philosophers of science, and about whether we can find in Aristotle the outlines of a viable theory. (Answering these questions, however, will have to wait for another occasion.)
Financial Markets Functioning Well in a Pandemic
(2020-03-15) Bauguess, Scott W.
Five reasons to be cautiously optimistic about their continued resiliency NCAA officials did their part in addressing COVID-19 fears, but cancelling the 64-team tournament didn't extinguish March Madness. It is alive and well in financial markets. Each day delivers upsets and unexpected developments, leaving commentators struggling to keep up with their recycled vocabularies. Superficial headlines abound. Markets reel. Stocks plunge. S&P gives back gains. Trillions wiped out. Investors riled. It is hard to find information of substance. Like being on the scene of a tragic accident, onlookers can't get beyond the surface images. Perhaps the most intelligent thing I've read all week came, aptly, from the WSJ's Intelligent Investor columnist Jason Zweig. He reminded his audience of enduring good advice from Warren Buffet's mentor, Benjamin Graham. [1] Buy-and-hold investors shouldn't be spooked by down markets. Sharp price declines provide an opportunity to buy wisely. And if you are trying to time the market (a.k.a., a speculator), be forewarned that in games of chance, casinos are the winners. All of this trading is great for market-makers on Wall Street. It is likely that the news driving markets could get worse as the "what-if" tree grows. The economic and social consequences of the recently announced travel ban and unprepared healthcare system is the current focus. I worry most about a potential leadership crisis. Imagine an election year where candidates face significant mortality risk. The coronavirus has shown to play favorites among the aged, which includes three presidential candidates and septuagenarian leaders of Congress. And some of them have revealed they may already be infected with hubris ... about the risks. But prospects aren't entirely bad. Financial markets have actually handled the pandemic remarkably well. As we head into a new week of market uncertainty, there are several reason to be optimistic about their continued resiliency.
Into the known
(2011-05) Inge, Courtney Lynn; Catterall, Kate
This report details a design process that generates new forms from mundane materials and tools. By utilizing a structure of limitations to establish artificial constraints, making becomes a sort of game where the designer must negotiate the rules and objects in order to achieve a solution. The best results come from setting up explicit limitations about the type of manipulation permitted, establishing design objectives, specifying the material or tool to be explored. Throughout the process of designing a structure of limitations affords the designer a critical distance from the assumed uses of common materials and familiar tools resulting in new forms, and often unexpected results. Self-assigned parameters help the designer gain control over rules and constraints established by clients.
Letter to James E. Allen from H.B. Stenzel on 1968-12-03
(1968-12-03) Stenzel, Henryk B.
More Americans Than Ever Are Driving Cutting Edge Technology
(2019-10-11) Bauguess, Scott W.
August 6, 2020 More Americans Than Ever Are Driving Cutting Edge Technology SCOTT W. BAUGUESS Finance Published on October 11, 2019 My rewrite of the WSJ article: “The Seven-Year Auto Loan: America’s Middle Class Can’t Afford its Cars.“ Financial innovation is adding fuel to an industry that keeps raising the bar for what to expect from the driving experience. Walk into an auto dealership these days and you might walk out with a seven-year car loan. Unlike the time it takes to digest chewing gum, seven years isn’t a myth. An increasing number of car buyers are electing to extend their payments. About a third of auto loans for new vehicles taken in the first half of 2019 had terms of longer than six years, according to credit-reporting firm Experian PLC. A decade ago, that number was less than 10%. The Wall Street Journal recently published an article titled: “The Seven-Year Auto Loan: America’s Middle Class Can’t Afford Its Cars.” I tweeted that the same set of facts could have supported a more positive story. Here is my suggested rewrite. In many places, I preserve the authors’ original language. Read and compare. The availability of inexpensive debt on increasingly generous terms is supporting auto industry sales and profits. For consumers, it’s become a crutch to support their expectations. This is enabling more Americans than ever before to drive cutting edge technology. But not everyone views this as a positive development. Some suggest this is a pronounced sign that American middle class buyers can’t afford a middle-class lifestyle. This view is based on the perception that incomes have risen at a sluggish pace in the past decade, while car prices have grown rapidly. Costly new technological and safety features, such as lane assist and larger and more sophisticated multimedia displays, are making their way to even the most basic cars. U.S. consumers have also veered toward pricier rides such as sport-utility vehicles that tend to dominate auto showrooms. The result? Consumers are seeking bigger loans than ever to purchase a car. And the only way they can afford them is to stretch out the payments.
Toward a Theory of Vulnerability Disclosure Policy: A Hacker’s Game
(2020-08-06) Canaan, Taylor J.
A game between software vendors, heterogeneous software users, and a hacker is introduced in which software vendors attempt to protect software users by releasing updates, i.e. disclosing a vulnerability, and the hacker is attempting to exploit vulnerabilities in the software package to attack the software users. The software users must determine whether the protection offered by the update outweighs the cost of installing the update. Following the model is a description of why the disclosure of vulnerabilities can only be an optimal policy when the cost to the hacker of searching for a Zero-Day vulnerability is small. The model is also extended to discuss Microsoft’s new “extended support” disclosure policy.