Center for Pandemic Decision Science

Browse

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1

COVID-19 alert stages, healthcare projections and mortality patterns in Austin, Texas, May 2021
(2021-05) Arslan, Nazlican; Sürer, Özge; Morton, David P.; Yang, Haoxiang; Lachmann, Michael; Woody, Spencer; Fox, Spencer J.; Meyers, Lauren Ancel
To support public health decision-making in Austin, Texas, we project COVID-19 healthcare demand as vaccines continue to roll out, and we provide retrospective estimates for in-hospital COVID-19 mortality during surge and non-surge periods of the pandemic. The projections indicate that a return to COVID-19 Alert Stage 2 in May 2021 would be unlikely to cause a healthcare surge that exceeds local ICU capacity. However, our retrospective estimates of in-hospital COVID-19 mortality suggest that even modest surges may increase the COVID-19 fatality rate and that, throughout the pandemic, in-hospital mortality has disproportionately occurred in communities with overlapping socioeconomic, occupational, and health risks. The analyses are based on multiple assumptions about the transmission rate, age-specific severity of COVID-19, and efficacy of vaccines, and thus do not represent the full range of uncertainty that the city of Austin may encounter. We are posting these results prior to peer review to provide insights regarding changing COVID-19 risks as vaccination coverage continues to increase and to guide the relaxation of COVID-19 mitigation measures in the spring and summer of 2021.