(2021-10) Ding, Yanyue; Agrawal, Sudesh K.; Cao, Jincheng; Meyers, Lauren Ancel; Hasenbein, John J.
This paper develops an agent-based disease spread model on a contact network in an effort to guide efforts at surveillance testing in small to moderate facilities such as nursing homes and meat-packing plants. The model employs Monte Carlo simulations of viral spread sample paths in the contact network. The original motivation was to detect COVID-19 outbreaks quickly in such facilities, but the model can be applied to any communicable disease. In particular, the model provides guidance on how many test to administer each day and on the importance of the testing order among staff or workers.