Center for Pandemic Decision Science

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Browsing Center for Pandemic Decision Science by Subject "China"

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    COVID-19 serial interval estimates based on confirmed cases in public reports from 86 Chinese cities
    (2020-04) Du, Zhanwei; Xu, Xiaoke; Wu, Ye; Wang, Lin; Cowling, Benjamin J.; Meyers, Lauren Ancel
    As a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) continues to spread widely and claim lives worldwide, its transmission characteristics remain uncertain. Here, we present and analyze the serial intervals-the time period between the onset of symptoms in an index (infector) case and the onset of symptoms in a secondary (infectee) case-of 339 confirmed cases of COVID-19 identified from 264 cities in mainland China prior to February 19, 2020. Here, we provide the complete dataset in both English and Chinese to support further COVID-19 research and modeling efforts.
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    Effects of Proactive Social Distancing on COVID-19 Outbreaks in 58 Cities, China
    (Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2020-09) Du, Zhanwei; Xu, Xiaoke; Wang, Lin; Fox, Spencer J.; Cowling, Benjamin J.; Galvani, Alison P.; Meyers, Lauren Ancel
    Cities across China implemented stringent social distancing measures in early 2020 to curb coronavirus disease outbreaks. We estimated the speed with which these measures contained transmission in cities. A 1-day delay in implementing social distancing resulted in a containment delay of 2.41 (95% CI 0.97-3.86) days.
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    Estimated COVID-19 Mortality in China, December 16, 2022-January 19, 2023
    (2023-02) Du, Zhanwei; Meyers, Lauren Ancel
    The recent wave of COVID-19 in China peaked in late December of 2022, with 0.07 million deaths confirmed in hospitals between December 16, 2022 and January 19, 2023.
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    Risk for Transportation of Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan to Other Cities in China
    (Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2020-05) Du, Zhanwei; Wang, Lin; Cauchemez, Simon; Xu, Xiaoke; Wang, Xianwen; Cowling, Benjamin J.; Meyers, Lauren Ancel
    On January 23, 2020, China quarantined Wuhan to contain coronavirus disease (COVID-19). We estimated the probability of transportation of COVID-19 from Wuhan to 369 other cities in China before the quarantine. Expected COVID-19 risk is >50% in 130 (95% CI 89-190) cities and >99% in the 4 largest metropolitan areas.