Center for Pandemic Decision Science

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    COVID-19 Healthcare Demand Projections: Beaumont-Port Arthur MSA, Texas
    (2020-04) Pierce, Kelly; Ho, Ethan; Wang, Xutong; Pasco, Remy; Du, Zhanwei; Fox, Spencer J.; Zynda, Greg; Song, Jawon; Meyers, Lauren Ancel
    To support healthcare planning, we analyzed the Beaumont-Port Arthur MSA module of our US COVID-19 Pandemic Model to project the number of cases, healthcare requirements and deaths under different scenarios. Note that the results presented herein are based on multiple assumptions about the transmission rate and age-specific severity of COVID-19. There is still much we do not understand about the transmission dynamics of this virus, including the extent of asymptomatic infection and transmission. These results do not represent the full range of uncertainty. Rather, they are meant to serve as plausible scenarios for gauging the likely impacts of control measures in the Beaumont-Port Arthur MSA. We have updated our model inputs based on the daily number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in Beaumont-Port Arthur between April 2, 2020 and April 20, 2020, provided by the Southeast Texas Regional Advisory Council (SETRAC). The projections assume that schools were closed on March 19, 2020 (start of state mandated school closures) and extensive social distancing began on March 28, 2020 with the Jefferson County Stay at Home order [1]. The data suggest that recent social distancing has reduced transmission by anywhere between 70% and 100% relative to the period prior to March 19th. We make projections for six different scenarios. The first four-70%, 80%, 95% and 100% reductions in transmission fall within this range of current estimates; the other two-0% and 50% reductions in transmission provide more pessimistic projections that could occur with extreme relaxation of social distancing measures. For each of the scenarios, the graphs project COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, patients requiring ICU care, patients requiring ventilation and deaths. We are posting these results prior to peer review to provide intuition for both policy makers and the public regarding both the immediate threat of COVID-19 and the extent to which continued social distancing, transmission-reducing precautions such as keeping physical distance and wearing cloth face coverings, can mitigate that threat.