Center for Pandemic Decision Science

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Browsing Center for Pandemic Decision Science by Subject "ACS"

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    Projecting Need for a COVID-19 Alternative Care Site (ACS) Austin, TX
    (2021-01) Yang, Haoxiang; Lachmann, Michael; Sürer, Özge; Fox, Spencer J.; Morton, David P.; Meyers, Lauren Ancel
    To support the city of Austin and Travis County in responding to the threatening rise in COVID-19 hospitalizations, we used a data-driven model of COVID-19 transmission in the Austin-Round Rock MSA to project hospitalizations until February 4th, estimate the risk that cases will exceeding local capacity, and determine effective triggers for opening an alternative care site (ACS) to expand capacity. Note that the results presented herein are based on multiple assumptions about the transmission rate and age-specific severity of COVID-19 and do not represent the full range of uncertainty. Rather, they are meant to provide plausible scenarios for COVID-19 healthcare demand and inform decisions that balance the high costs of establishing an ACS with the risks of outstripping local healthcare capacity.