Browsing by Author "Lau, Eric H.Y."

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International risk of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant importations originating in South Africa
(2021-12) Bai, Yuan; Du, Zhanwei; Xu, Mingda; Wang, Lin; Wu, Peng; Lau, Eric H.Y.; Cowling, Benjamin J.; Meyers, Lauren Ancel
Omicron, a fast-spreading SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern reported to the World Health Organization on November 24, 2021, has raised international alarm. We estimated there is at least 50% chance that Omicron had been introduced by travelers from South Africa into all of the 30 countries studied by November 27, 2021.
International risk of the new variant COVID-19 importations originating in the United Kingdom
(2021-03) Du, Zhanwei; Wang, Lin; Yang, Bingyi; Ali, Sheikh Taslim; Tsang, Tim K.; Shan, Songwei; Wu, Peng; Lau, Eric H.Y.; Cowling, Benjamin J.; Meyers, Lauren Ancel
A fast-spreading SARS-CoV-2 variant identified in the United Kingdom in December 2020 has raised international alarm. We estimate that, in all 15 countries analyzed, there is at least a 50% chance the variant was imported by travelers from the United Kingdom by December 7th.
Pandemic fatigue impedes mitigation of COVID-19 in Hong Kong
(2021-06) Du, Zhanwei; Wang, Lin; Shan, Songwei; Lam, Dickson; Tsang, Tim; Xiao, Jingyi; Gao, Huizhi; Yang, Bingyi; Ali, Sheikh Taslim; Pei, Sen; Fung, Isaac Chun-Hai; Lau, Eric H.Y.; Liao, Qiuyan; Wu, Peng; Meyers, Lauren Ancel; Leung, Gabriel M.; Cowling, Benjamin J.
Community-wide social distancing has been a cornerstone of pandemic control prior to mass vaccinations. The extent to which pandemic fatigue is undermining adherence to such measures and accelerating transmission remains unclear. Using large-scale weekly telephone surveys and mobility data, we characterize the evolution of risk perception and protective behaviours in Hong Kong. We estimate a 1.5% to 5.5% reduction in population compliance with protective policies for the fourth wave (October 2020 to January 2021) versus the third wave (July to August 2020), inducing prolonged disease circulation with increased infections. Mathematical models incorporating population protective behaviours estimates that the fourth wave would have been 14% smaller if not for pandemic fatigue. Mitigating pandemic fatigue is essential in maintaining population protective behaviours for controlling COVID-19. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant health, social, and economic burden globally. In response, countries enacted public health and social measures (PHSMs), including unprecedented movement restrictions, to control transmission. This has led to loss of employment, education, exercise opportunities, and other important social and cultural activities Pandemic fatigue is a natural response to a prolonged public health crisis due to complex interplay of cultural and social factors (e.g., the risk perception of threats). Recent studies suggest the gradual emergence of pandemic fatigue in many countries as demotivation to follow recommended mitigation behaviours Hong Kong has implemented stringent social distancing measures to curb four COVID-19 epidemic waves since January 2020. Similar PHSMs were used to contain transmission and bring case numbers down to low levels in each wave, including masks in all public areas, closure of schools, bars and social venues, work at home policies, and restaurant measures. While the third wave between July and September was brought under control within 2 months, the fourth wave starting from the end of October 2020 has taken longer to bring under control and lasted at least 5 months. One of the potential reasons for the reduced impact of PHSMs on transmission in the fourth wave is pandemic fatigue.
Risk for International Importations of Variant SARS-CoV-2 Originating in the United Kingdom
(Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2021-05) Du, Zhanwei; Wang, Lin; Yang, Bingyi; Ali, Sheikh Taslim; Tsang, Tim K.; Shan, Songwei; Wu, Peng; Lau, Eric H.Y.; Cowling, Benjamin J.; Meyers, Lauren Ancel
A fast-spreading severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variant identified in the United Kingdom in December 2020 has raised international alarm. We analyzed data from 15 countries and estimated that the chance that this variant was imported into these countries by travelers from the United Kingdom by December 7 is >50%.