Browsing by Author "Herrera-Diestra, Jose L."

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COVID-19 Scenario Projections: The Emergence of Omicron in the US
(2021-12) Bouchnita, Anass; Fox, Spencer J.; Lachmann, Michael; Herrera-Diestra, Jose L.; Gibson, Graham; Meyers, Lauren Ancel
On November 24, 2021, South African scientists announced the rapid spread of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant. Within days, the WHO named the variant Omicron and classified it as a variant of concern (VOC). As of December 15, 2021, many of Omicron's epidemiological characteristics remain uncertain, including its intrinsic transmissibility, ability to evade vaccine-acquired and infection-acquired immunity, and severity. To support situational awareness and planning in the United States, we simulated the emergence and spread of Omicron in the US across a range of plausible scenarios. Using a stochastic compartmental model that tracks population-level immunity against the Delta and Omicron variants derived from infections, primary vaccines, and booster vaccines, we project COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths over a six month period beginning on December 1, 2021 under 18 different scenarios.
COVID-19 Scenario Projections: The Emergence of Omicron in the US - January 2022
(2022-01) Bouchnita, Anass; Fox, Spencer J.; Lachmann, Michael; Herrera-Diestra, Jose L.; Gibson, Graham; Meyers, Lauren Ancel
As of January 6, 2021, the highly-transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant is driving the largest COVID-19 wave in the US to date. The numbers of new cases and hospitalizations continue to rise, straining healthcare systems around the country. On December 16, 2021, we posted projections for the emergence of the Omicron variant under 18 plausible scenarios [1]. At that time, many of Omicron's epidemiological characteristics were uncertain. Recent studies suggest that the Omicron variant is more transmissible, more immune evasive, and less severe than the Delta variant. In this report, we present updated scenario projections that reflect our current understanding of Omicron transmission and severity in the US. Using a stochastic compartmental model that tracks population-level immunity against the Delta and Omicron variants derived from infections, primary vaccines, and booster vaccines, we project COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths over a six month period beginning on January 1, 2022 under eight different scenarios.
Omicron scenario projections for the Austin-Round Rock MSA
(2022-01) Bouchnita, Anass; Fox, Spencer J.; Lachmann, Michael; Herrera-Diestra, Jose L.; Gibson, Graham; Meyers, Lauren Ancel
The ongoing COVID-19 surge is straining healthcare systems in the Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan area. As of January 21, 2022, COVID-19 hospital admissions have reached record numbers and the total number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals and ICUs continue to rise. To support response efforts and public risk awareness, we used a data-driven mathematical model to simulate the continued spread of the Omicron variant in the Austin-Round Rock MSA area from January 22, 2022 to June 21, 2022 under four plausible scenarios. Our projections suggest that the 7-day rolling average of reported new cases in the five-county MSA likely peaked on January 9, 2022 at a value 6,109.