-TOP. SEeRET f~'· 
......1 
s 
NO FOREIGN DJSS.~~.: r J 
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of Intelligence · 21 November 1968 
INTELLIGENCE MEMOR.2\.NDUM 
SUBJECT: Rumors of Soviet Military Pressures on Rumania 
1. A rash of reports and rumors have appeared suggesting that the Soviet Union is about to apply military pressures to Ruroania. These reports are sununarized with comments at annex. Some of the reports allege that Warsaw Pact forces are about to enter Rurnania in con­siderable numbers. Others report signs that a Warsaw Pact exercise is to take place on Rumanian soil this month. Some report that the Soviets and Rurnanians have been negotiating over Soviet demands that Soviet troops be stationed in 
·Rumania 	and that Warsaw Pact. exercises be held there soon. 
2. General evaluation: There has been 
no sign of a recent hardening of the Soviet 
attitude toward Rurnania. Both Mazurov, the 
deputy premier who gave the November ?nniversary 
speech, and Brezhnev, in his add~ess to the 
Polish party congress, held to the hard post­
August line on the obligations of Warsaw Pact 
members and the limitations on the sovereignty 
of individual members. Brezhnev also alluded 
to projected measures designed to strengthen 
the structure of the Warsaw Pact. These 
strictures were clearly angled toward the Rumanians 
as much as anyone else. Nevertheless, Rumania 
has not come in for special or concerted propaganda 
attack. 

SANITIZED 
------------·---····-.. 
..TOP SEGRHI ··· J· 
NO FOHEiSH DiSSE~1 

3. We believe that if the Soviets were pla~ning s~on to tak~ severe and far-reaching action against Rumania, such as invasion or even forcing them to permit a large-scale military exercise on Rumania territory, there would be some propaganda preparation. Thus 1 we conclude that in this area the indications are negative. 
· 4. A few indications of unusual military activity have been received--a Bulgarian military alert, possible Ruman xercises at in the ear and 
5. We would expect to receive more indica­tions than these if Soviet and other Warsaw Pact forces were being r_eadied for an imminent move into Rumania. We should have expected to 
. .. 
':":' •I ' ' •
. \ .. 
' .. ' 
'. . ~ '·~ ,, . . ·'
'. 
• I
. . 
• •• •• • .: • 1 ' •• ' ,. •• ' '·' ' :· • • 
i. ,. ·'"­
1 ' 1. 
\ . , ... ' .. 'I .' 'J I•• ,t, ,'1 I' 
. : 
have reported any specific Soviet or Warsaw Pact military movements or preparations on a scale indicative of an early move against Rumania. 
6. Some kind of early joint exercise activity on a minor scale is possible.-Reports from Bucharest indicate that Warsaw Pact officers now are meeting in Bucharest to pla~ an exercise, but so far there is no indication of the timing. Earlier reports from reliable quarters had in­dicated that the Rumanians agreed under some Soviet pressure to host Warsaw Pact exercises early in 1969. 
Annex