TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW A Monthly Summary of Business and Economic Conditions in Texas BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH mE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS VOL. XXVII No. 6 TWENTY CENTS A COPY-TWO DOLLARS A YEAR JULY 1954 ~ [~ It: Cotton Textiles: [~I 11 ! An Opportunity 1n Texas r: 1: 1;1 This month's special report on Texas business (page 15) shows why Texas is the t prime location for construction of new cotton mills. & LEGEND * Otsrinafion "'{;:( Origin • U1 ban1ud Art1s -lreaking point on fin ished goods for Texas mills ---Breaking poinf on unlinishd gotds for Texas mills Et3:'3 Secondary mcrketing or111 for Texas mills ,......··· The primary marketing area for Texas textile mills stretches across the map from the West Coast to the Mississippi Valley. In the gray area east of the Mississippi, Texas mills can often compete with eastern producers. These marketing areas are mapped on the basis of shipping rates from mills (white stars) to major distribution points (black stars). The black dots show where major cities are located in Texas' potential market area. The Business Situation in Texas Business barometers compiled by the Bureau of Business Research during May continued to support the view ex­pressed in these columns for the past two months that the decline in Texas business activity has ended. The record for May was not quite as good as for April in Texas. But during the past month more and more business analysts have taken an increasingly optimistic stand concerning the future of business, as the national business barometers levelled off or turned up. The index of Texas business activity dropped three points from the level of April, leaving the May index two points below a year ago. In May 1953 the index had dropped seven points from the previous January level, while in May 1954 the index was four points higher than in January 1954. On this January-May basis, the index of Texas business made a much better showing than the index of industrial production in the United States, compiled by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The May index for the nation turned up, the first rise in ten months. The upturn in industrial production for the United States was widespread, with the individual indexes for durable goods, nondurable goods, and minerals all registering increases. Most of the major industry groups equalled or exceeded their April levels. The component series in the index of Texas business activity showed more declines than increases. Two series, freight carloadings and building permits, rose between April and May, while the remaining five componeDts de­clined. In comparison with their year-ago levels, two series registered increases, one no change, and the remaining four series declined. The increases over a year ago were in electric power consumption and industrial power con· sumption; building permits showed no change. The detailed changes in the seven components of the in­dex are shown in the following table. It is wise to remember in making use of the composite index of business activity in Texas that it represents the average change in a number of different phases of business in the state. Sometimes signifi. cant trends appear in the individual components that are as important as the average change in total activity. INDEX OF TEXAS BUSINESS ACTIVITY AND COMPONENT SERIE!! (adjusted for seasonal variation, 1947-49=100) May A pr Percent Index Weigh t 1954 1954 change INDEX OF BUSINESS ACTIVITY ( COMPOSITE ) ---------­--·­100.0 141* 144* Total electr ic power consu mption_____________ _ 3.0 206 21 2 Crude runs to s t ills -------------------·---------­3.9 130 135 4 Crude petroleum production ---------------­8.1 120 128 6 Urban building permits, adjusted for price changes -----------------------------­9.4 122* 120* + 6 Miscellaneous freight carloadings ----­--­10.0 95 90 + 6 Industria l electric power consumption_ _ 14.6 212 214 Retail sales, adjusted for price changes__ 51.0 134* 138 *Preliminary. Consumer spending, as measured by the Bureau's index of retail sales in Texas, declined 3% from April, but the May index was still at its second highest point in 1954. This index is adjusted for seasonal variation, but the fact that Easter came so late this year probably pushed a dispro­portionate share of the spring business into April, which resulted in a somewhat abnormal increase in April sales. In spite of the rather erratic variations in the index of retail sales, there has been a general upward movement in consumer spending in the first five months of 1954, with most kinds of goods reporting an improvement. Durable Texas Business Activity Index • Adiusted for seasonal variation • 1947-1949 •100 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 JULY 1954 goods have made a somewhat better showing than non­durables. One striking feature of the retail business has been the increased selling effort put forth by merchants, and there is no indication that selling will be any easier in the immediate future. However, consumer incomes re­main high, and sales can be made if the businessman will put forth sufficient effort. It appears that the really com­petitive buyers' market that characterized prewar business has finally returned. Furthermore, it gives promise of re­maining as long as there is no further immediate threat of war. The increase in retail sales has been accompanied by a rise in installment credit outstanding, which has offset some of the drop in personal income during the past six months. Income payments to individuals in the United States have been declining since October, and although these data are not available for Texas on a monthly basis, it seems likely that income of Texas individuals has also been declining. The increased use of installment credit will have the same effect on retail sales as an increase in income. For the first three months of 1954, repayments of installment obliga­ tions exceeded new credit extended, with the result that the total amount of credit outstanding declined. During April new credit extended slightly exceeded repayments, and the total outstanding rose. The large inventories of all kinds of goods, so conspicu­ ous a part of the business picture during 1953, are slowly being reduced as the rate of sales exceeds the volume of production. The lower volume of sales, however, reduces the size of the inventory needed. As long as inventories are decreasing, it means that sales are being made from stocks, and production will not maintain a level equal to the level of consumer buying. This is the reverse of the stimulating effect of inventory accumulation, when consumers buy less than the factories are producing and the difference goes into inventory. One of the striking features of the present decline in busi­ ness has been the stability of commodity prices.And as long as prices do not drop precipitously, there is not a strong incentive to liquidate inventories. Businessmen have been trying to work off the accumulation of goods by vigorous promotions and judicious reductions in price, but there has been no distress selling, such as typically accompanies major cyclical declines in business. Consumer spending represents the largest segment of Texas business, although it is not the most influential fac­ tor in determining the fluctuations in business. In general, consumer spending depends upon income expectations, and in a sense its fluctuations are more a result of changes in other elements of the economic situation than a casual fac­tor. It appears that business analysts have tended to over­emphasize the importance of consumer spending as a cause of changes in business activity. A more profitable type of analysis might be to study the reasons why income changes have occurred; explaining these changes will have the ef­fect of explaining why business volume has fluctuated. The most dynamic elements of the boom in Texas busi­ness since 1950 have been the expenditures of the govern­ment for munitions; the expenditures of business for new plant and equipment; and the other types of construction, such as homes, stores, churches, and schools. The tre­mendous increase in capital formation in Texas has been the greatest single factor in the high level of business, and the same holds true for all other sections of the country. The fact that building and industrial expansion have continued with very little reduction during the past twelve months is the major reason the level of business in Texas has declined so little. The Bureau's index of building for the first five months of 1954 was 11 % above the average for 1953, and there is no sign of any slowing down. The Department of Commerce has just announced the results of-its May survey of anticipated capital expendi­tures by business, and the indicated annual rate of ex­penditures in 1954 is within 5% of the record $28.4 bil­lion spent in 1953. Manufacturing concerns anticipated some reduction in capital expansion, but public utilities, oil pipelines, and airlines expected to increase their expendi­tures. There is a strong indication in the figures for Texas business that capital expansion in the state will be at a higher rate than the average for the United States. The index of bank debits in Texas cities, computed from the data compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, showed no change in the level of business transactions in May. The average of this index for the past three months has been higher than for any previous month. Since it rep· resents the changes in the dollar volume of business trans­ actions in the principal cities of the state, it offers confirma­ tion of the trends shown in the other barometers used in the analysis of the current business situation. In periods of rapidly changing prices, this index is in­ fluenced by the price level as well as by the volume of busi­ ness transacted, but prices have shown little change over the past year, and this index in its present form measures essentially the change in the volume of total business activity. JoHN R. STOCKTON Bureau of Business Research Publications A complete listing of Bureau publica­tions now available and of current in­terest will be mailed upon request. Eight regular series are listed as well as current publications and miscellaneous series. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW Robert H. Ryan--------·---Mana.iring Editor College of Business Administration, The University of Texas William R.. Sprlegel___________ _ _ ___ _Dean Business Research Council Wflllam R. Sprlegel (e2' o61cio), A. Hamilton Chute, F. L . Cox, Elisabeth Lanham, R. H . Montgomery, G. H. Newlove, and Charla E. Walker. STAFF OF THE BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH John R. Stockton Stanley A. Arblngaet Florence Escott Director Aamta"t Director Reeearch SMpen1iaor Re110Urcri Specialiat Statiaticio" Ren..,.,,h As80ciat