October 1972 Bureau of Business Research • The University of Texas at Austin TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW VOL XLVI, No. 10, OCTOBER 1972 Editor, Robert H. Ryan Managing Editor, Kathleen Luft Editorial Board: Robert H. Ryan, Chairman; Stanley A. Arbingast; John R. Stockton; Francis B. May; Robert B. Williamson; Kathleen Luft. CONTENTS Articles 209 : The Business Situation in Texas, by John R. Stockton 213: The Outlook for Sulfur, by Jared E. Hazleton 221: Texas Construction: The Condominium Concept, by Kathleen Luft Tables 210: Indexes of Consumer Prices: U.S. and Dallas, Texas 211 : Purchasing Power of the Dollar 211: Selected Barometers of Texas Business 212: Business-Activity Indexes for Twenty Selected Texas Cities 214: Forecasts of Demand for Sulfur (All Forms) by End Use , Year 2000 216: Estimated World Sulfur Resources 221: Estimated Values of Building Authorized in Texas 224: Local Business Conditions Barometers of Texas Business (inside back cover) Charts 209: Estimated Personal Income, Texas 210: Total Unemployment, Texas 210: Comparison of Consumer Prices and Wholesale Prices, United States 211 : Average Weekly Earnings: Manufacturing Industries, Texas 212: Industrial Production, Texas 212: Industrial Production: Durable Manufactures, Texas 212: Industrial Production: Nondurable Manufactures, Texas 223 : Nonresidential Building Authorized, Texas Figures 218 : Comparison of Trend Projections and Forecasts for Sulfur Demand 219: Comparison of Trend Projections and Forecasts for Sulfur Production 220: Sulfur Demand Projections Relative to Sulfur Supply from Pollution Abatement BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH Business Research Council: Vernon M. Briggs, James R. Bright, Robert T. Green, Darwin D. Klingman, George Kozmetsky, George M. Scott, Lee A. Tavis Director: Stanley A. Arbingast Assistant Directors: Florence Escott, David L. Karney Statistician: John R. Stockton Consulting Statistician: Francis B. May Cooperating Faculty : C. P. Blair, Charles T. Clark, Law­ rence L. Crum, Clark C. Gill, Gary L. Holstrum, Robert K. Holz, Lorrin G. Kennamer, Jerry Todd, Ernest W. Walker, Robert B. Williamson Administrative Assistant: Margaret Robb Research Associates: Charles Adams, Earlene Call, Nicholas Costas, Ida M. Lambeth, Robert M. Lockwood, Kathleen Luft, Robert H. Ryan, Clyde Sommerlatte, Barbara Terrell, Charles P. Zlatkovich Computer Programmer: Marilyn Smith Statistical Associate: Mildred Anderson Statistical Assistant: Constance Cooledge Statistical Technician: Kay Davis Cartographers: James Buchanan, Alice Lo, Charles W. Montfort Librarian: Merle Danz Administrative Secretary : Mary Ann Greatly Administrative Clerk: Maureen Meehan Senior Secretary: Clintsy Sturgill Senior Clerk Typists: Christine Fox, Deborah Gozali, Agnes Marie Sullivan Senior Clerks: Robert Jenkins, Salvador B. Macias Offset Press Operators: Robert Dorsett, Daniel P. Rosas Published monthly by the Bureau of Busineaa Research, Graduate School of Busineaa, The University of Texu at Austin, Austin, Tex• 78712. Second-clua postage paid at Austin, Texaa. Content of tbll publication ii not copyrighted and may be reproduced freely, but acknowledsment of source will be appreciated. The vlewa expreued by authors are not necellSU'ily those of the Bureau of Bullntll Research. Subscription, $4.00 a year; Individual copies 35 cents. Reprints of feature articles are available from the Bureau at ten cents each. The Bureau of Business Research ia a member of the Association for University Business and Economic Research. THE BUSINESS SITUATION IN TEXAS John R. Stockton ESTIMATED PERSONAL INCOME, TEXAS Index Adj1u 1ed for Seoso11al Jlnriali.on -1967 =100 19721964 1965 1966 1967 SOURCE: Quarterly measures of Texas personal income made by the Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce. Monthly allocations of quarterly measures, and estimates of most recent months, made by the Bureau of Business Research with regression relationships of time, bank debits, and insured unemployment. NOTE: Shaded areas indicate periods of decline of total business activity in the United States. Texas business activity surged upward in August after an erratic decline in July, continuing the strong rise that has been characteristic of the economy throughout most of 1972. The index of Texas business, based on the volume of checks drawn against demand deposits, rose 8 percent in August, restoring practically all of the loss registered in July. This rise in the measure of total business activity corresponds with the behavior of practically all of the barometers of business in the state. An analysis of the major indicators of Texas business suggests that the decline in July was not a reversal of the trend of business but was due to a combination of circumstances related to the calendar. July 1972 had five Saturdays and five Sundays, which inevitably depressed the total figures on business. In addition to an extra weekend, the Indepen­dence Day holiday came on Tuesday, with the result that businesses were inclined to take a two-day holiday. No adjustment in the total figures for the month of July was attempted and it seems logical to conclude that activity actually remained high throughout the summer months. On the national scene, gross national product for the first half of 1972 rose 11.4 percent, and after allowance for the increase in prices, it rose 9.4 percent. Even if the rise in gross national product does not maintain this rate of increase for the remainder of the year, 1972 gives promise of showing the strongest recovery that has occurred since the decline ended in December 1970. Personal consumption expenditures, the largest com­ponent of the gross national product, rose 14 percent between the last quarter of 1970 and the second quarter of 1972. Retail sales in Texas for the first seven months of 1972 were 12 percent above the same period of 1971. The only figures available for August at this time, retail sales in department stores in the eleventh Federal Reserve District, show an increase of 11 percent over a year ago. The rise in consumer spending results partly from the increase in disposable income, partly from a reduction in the percentage of income saved. In the second quarter of 1972 the percentage of disposable income saved was 6.4, in comparison with 8.6 in the second quarter of 1971. The shift from savings to consumer spending is a significant feature of the recent level of business, and nothing indicates that this tendency to spend will be reduced in the immediate future. Although consumer spending is the largest segment of the gross national product, one of the most strategic segments is spending for capital goods. This category includes expenditures for increased inventory, investment in new plant and equipment, and construction of residential and nonresidential buildings. Money spent for these pur­poses stimulates business activity by increasing wages of consumers as well as by providing all kinds of businesses supplying capital goods with increased business volume. Information on capital spending by Texas firms is not available, but since the industry of the state is growing somewhat faster than that of the country as a whole, national figures give significant information. Expenditures for the second quarter of 1972 for the United States were OCTOBER 1972 INDEXES OF CONSUMER PRICES U.S. AND DALLAS, TEXAS (1967 = 100) Percent change Classificatio n A ug 1972 A ug 1972 fr o m J ul 1972 A ug 1972 fro m A ug 1971 All items United St at es Dallas , Texas 12 5.7 125.5 0.2 2.9 2.3 Food United St at es Dallas, Texas 124.6 123.7 0.3 3.8 3.5 Ho using United St at es Dallas, Texas 129.9 128.6 0.3 3.8 2. 1 Apparel and upkee p United St at es Dallas, Texas 120.8 121.6 -0. 3 1.5 1.8 Transportatio n United St at es Dallas, Texas 120.5 12 1.4 0.2 1.0 1. 3 Health and rec reatio n United States Dallas, Texas 126.5 127.3 0.2 2.8 2.2 ... Data for July not available. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. 15 percent above the level of the last quarter of 1970. Reports from business concerns indicate that expenditures for the second half of 1972 should approximately equal those for the first half. This segment of the economy should continue to give strong support to Texas business for the remainder of th~ year. Construction, both residential and nonresidential, con­tinues to offer strong support to total economic activity. After a sudden erratic drop in July construction authorized in Texas, the August value of new building authorized rose 14 percent from July, bringing the total for the year to a level 22 percent above the first eight months of 1971. Residential construction rose 35 percent and the total to date this year was 19 percent above the same period a year ago. Nonresidential construction authorized dropped 5 TOTAL UNEMPLOYMENT, TEXAS l • d• • Adj..11ttl fo r S••••••I l'orialio• -1961•100 2SO 200 ISO 100 • 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 196.1 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 SOURCE' Tens Employmtnl Comm1MOOn. Olla usinni 1rtrn1y 111 11\e Unitt'd S111u. expenditures. In May the largest increase of the current recovery was registered, but even this increase of $1,200,000 was only .6 percent of the previous month. In the twelve-month period ending July 31 , 1972, inventories of all business concerns were approximately 4 percent higher than a year earlier. This rise is considered rather small in light of the strengthening demand being registered in business, and rising interest rates and talk of tighter credit may be causing businessmen to be cautious in building stocks of goods. Some analysts had hoped for a yearly increase in the neighborhood of twice that recorded. Another factor causing the small increase in inventories may be the extremely low level of inventories of auto­mobile dealers. This has been an unusually good year for sales of automobiles, so the low level of these inventories is a sign of exceptionally good business. Employment in Texas has continued to increase; total nonagricultural employment in August was 3.1 percent higher than a year earlier. Manufacturing employment rose 1.7 percent and nonmanufacturing employment, 3.4 per­cent. Unemployment in the civilian labor force averaged 4.0 percent for selected labor-market areas but ranged from 2.6 percent in Austin to 9.2 percent in Laredo. For the state as a whole, unemployment was 3.8 percent. Weekly earnings of labor in manufacturing have risen from $136.85 in August 1971 to $143.85 a year later. This increase has resulted partially from an increase in average COMPARISON OF CONSUMER PRICES AND WHOLESALE PRICES, UNITED STATES percent in August, but the total for the year to date was 26 135 percent above a year ago. Money spent on construction wages and sales throughout the state becomes a major 130 125 factor in supporting the growing economy of the state. Construction was one of the first elements of Texas 120 economic activity to feel the effects of the recession of 11 .5 1970. The decline continued through 1969 but recovery started with the beginning of 1970, the date at which the 110 recession is considered to have started for the country as a 10 whole. The steady rise in building activity during the thirty-two months since the end of , 1969 has been of tremendous importance to the economy of the state. Business spending for the accumulation of inventories is similar to spending for buildings and equipment in its effect 1961 1962 1963 1964 196.5 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 on the total economy. In spite of some increases in SOURCE ; 811r1NU ot Lttio< St111i11k1, U.S. O.C..nnW!'l1of Labor. inventories, this segment of private domestic investment has not been as stimulating to business as other types of capital 210 TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW I " I 30 ,. I I " I / / I v CON SU MER PR ICES/ _v IIS , / I 10 WHOlE AlEPRl ES ,.vr' ' IM ~V' I - ~ I-" ,,....,. _,.., ~ - ' - ' L..-r-" 90 0 - " ' AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNI NGS MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES, TEXAS 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 196A 1965 1966 19 67 1968 1969 19 70 1971 1972 NOTE: Shaded anllS tndic.lc penodl of d«hnt of !olal business activi1y in lhe Uni~cd Smo. SOU RCE: Tnu Employ-n! Commission. 0111 1dj1Hled for M:ISOnal >'ariation by the 8urcau of 8us1110~ R01earch. weekly hours worked from 40. 7 to 41.1 in the period of a year. At the same time that the number of hours worked was rising, average hourly earnings rose from $3.36 to $3.50. Texas industrial production fell from 133.0 in July to 131.4 in August, but was 8. 7 percent above the level of 120.9 in August 1971. The index of industrial production for the United States rose more strongly in August than in any other recent month, registering 114.3 in comparison with 113.7 in July. The August index was 8.2 percent higher than a year ago, but much of this increase is the result of recovery from the slump in steel production last summer. This tends to exaggerate the real rise in production, although the rise has been substantial. The improvement shown in the Texas indexes is uniformly good; there exists little doubt that the recovery from the recent recession is real. The threat of inflation however, is also real. An accompanying table shows th~ decline in the purchasing power of the dollar since 19SO. If one determines the amount of goods and services that could be bought for $1.00 in 1960, one will find that this same dollar will buy only $.71 worth of goods at present prices. PURCHASING POWER OF THE DOLLAR (As measured by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Index of Consumer Prices, 1960=100) Year United States* Houston, Texas 19SO 1.23 1.19 19Sl 1.14 1.10 19S2 1.12 1.09 19S3 I. I I 1.08 19S4 I.JO 1.08 19SS I. I I 1.08 19S6 1.09 1.07 19S7 I.OS 1.04 19S8 1.03 1.02 19S9 1.02 1.01 1960 1.00 1.00 1961 .99 1.00 1962 .98 .98 1963 .97 .97 1964 .96 .9S 196S .94 .94 1966 .91 .92 1967 .89 .89 1968 .8S .86 1969 .81 .80 1970 .76 .7 6 1971 .73 .74 1972 .71 .72 • U.S. city average. OCTOBER 1972 Furthermore, that same dollar would have bought $1.23 worth of goods in 1950. Thus since 1965 the purchasing power of a 1960 dollar has dropped by 22 percent from $.91 to $.71. Between 1965 and August 1972, however, hourly wages in manufacturing in Texas increased from $2.48 to $3.50, or 41 percent. The worker in manufactur­ing has increased his pay more than the purchasing power of his pay has decreased. Controls have worked more effectively on prices-food prices being an exception-than they have on wages. Controls, however, obviously are creaking and groaning, and there exists some doubt that they will continue to hold. Inflationary pressures are growing stronger as business conditions improve. The federal deficit for fiscal year 1973 appears to be headed for $30 to $35 billion, in comparison with $23 billion at the end of the fiscal year ended July 1, 1972. Since this deficit is met by issuance of government securities, the deficit measures the amount of new pur­chasing power that is released to the market to increase the demand for goods and services. The inevitable result is that the prices of goods and services will continue to rise. One important step in reducing the inflationary pressure would be the reduction of the federal deficit either by increasing taxes or by reducing expenditures. From a political standpoint either measure seems impossible. The fiscal policy of the federal government can be used to SELECTED BAROMETERS OF TEXAS BUSINESS (Indexes-Adjusted for seasonal variation-1967=100) Percent change Year-to­ date Index A ug 1972 Jul 1972 Year-to­date Aug 1972 average from 1972 Jul 1972 average 1972 from 1971 Estimated personal IS7.3p IS3.3pincome IS2.8 3 9 Business activity 17 1.9 1S9.8 163.2 8 10 Crude-petroleum 112. lp 121.8pproduction 11 S.O 8 3 Crude-oil runs to stills 116.9 116.1 II S.S 7 2 Total electric-power ISl.8p 149.lpuse lSl.7 2 12 Industrial electric- power use 137.3p 13S.6p 138.3 1 10 Bank debits 206.1 191.3 192.8 8 IS Urban building permits issued 177.9 I S8.6 183.8 12 20 New residential 216.3 160.3 203.0 3S 19 New nonresidential (unadjusted) 148.3 IS6.6 170.2 s 26 Total industrial production 131.4p 133.0p 129.4 7 Total nonfarm em­ ployment 11s.9P 11s.1P 11 S.S ** 2 Man ufacturing em­ 108.3p 107.3pployment 108.4 1 1 Total unemployment lSS.8 1S2.4 1S3.3 2 9 Insured unemployment 172.0 179.3 172.6 4 - 18 Average weekly earn­129.4p 129.2p ings-manufacturing 128.7 •• 6 Average weekly hours­98.7p 98.9pmanufacturing 98.9 •• P Preliminary. ** Change is less than one half of I percent. 211 to move upward in December 1970, although the recovery INDUSTRI AL PRODUCTION, TEXAS has been sluggish until recent months. Business expansion, lndu Adj•uted for Sto10110/ llariation-l961:JOO which has been financed largely by cash flow from operations, is solidly based. Profit margins are widening as I SO labor costs per unit of output have tended to stabilize. Despite an apparently rosy picture, investors are worried about the prospects of higher interest rates. The behavior of the stock market has not been encouraging, even though no I 00 ' one believes that the Federal Reserve Board will bring on another credit crunch. For the past six months the supply * Af!tr July 1967 thc pk>ucd Trxi\ Industrial Ind•~·~ computed on• rc111c1&1t1td hi,.. ,..hich 1nroq><>n.ln~d11ionildu1, pnor 10 1hh1umthcon1m1l 1mk~ is graphed, u,ba,,., pcnod h1•mgbttnupd1t<1ifrom 1957-1959 to 1967 NOTE· Shad1e1tc pcnodi of ded1nc of total bvsmc~ act1v11y in tile United Smu. SOURCE· l'cdcn l Rc,..n·c S..nk of Dallu. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DURABLE MANUFACTURES, TEXAS l ndu A1lj1u led for Sto1onal Vo riafion-1961 =100 of money has been allowed to increase above the rate needed to maintain a steady growth in the economy. We appear to be in the strange position of worrying about the good news for fear that it will bring about more inflation, and at the same time worrying for fear that 1>0 I I " 19S8 19S9 1960 1961 1962 1963 196 .& 196S 19 66 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 * Aflcr July 1967 th( ptoued Tc-.as lndu~tnal l ndu is oompulfil on 1 rcwetghttd ba,.. whlC'h 1noorpou1rs add11ion..I data, prior 10 lh11i tum \ht OnJJnal 1ndu IS gniphti,I, 111i baw-pcnoJ h1v1ni b«n updated from 1957·1959 to 1967. NOTE Shaded ;ina~ ind1c:>lt pcnOOs of dtthno of total bU51ntu xt1Y>l)' 1n lhe United Statn. SOURCE; fedOlmputod on • rcw..ighltd baw which incorpont~ ad.ll11on1I data. pnor lo thll lime the onginal 1ndu rs paph.-d, ·~ b:aw period ha>'in& b«n upcbttd from 1957-1959 lo 19(>7. NOTE'. Shided a1tn indicate pcnods of decline of 10111 buiinC'5 :Kl1'1ly 1n the Onht