Entered as second-class matter on May 7, 1928, at the postoffice at Austin, Texas, under the Act of August 24, 1912 VOL. IV AUSTIN, TEXAS, FEBRUARY 26, 1930 No. 1 THE MONTH January witnessed a further recession in business throughout Texas and the Southwest. Industry gener­ally was curtailed and the distribution of all commod­ities, as measured by car loadings, was considerably smaller than it was last year in January. Agriculture suffered by a further weakening of prices, and the livestock situation is no better. Possibly the most en­couraging feature in the business outlook is the im­proved credit situation. Then, too, the recession ap­pears to be near bedrock, and recovery is likely to begin shortly. The outlook for busi­ness during the summer and fall months is much brighter than present conditions seem to indicate. Employment fell off some­what in January, due partly to seasonal. influences and partly to a smaller v.olume of busi­ness. There was a decline of . 4 per cent in the number of : workers on the payrolls of 515 comparable Texas firms on January 15 comparedto De­ 1 : cember 15. Aside from Hous­ton, which reported a gain of 2 per cent, practically all of the other 54 cities and towns • showed losses. On the other hand, wages increased. The average weekly wage paid by the 515 firms increased from $26.76 in December to $27.14 Business and industry receded a little fur­ther during January. However, the decline was less severe than it was in the three pre­ceding months, and it appears that the low point in the current business recession has been reached and possibly passed. Already certain industries are showing some recovery, while others appear to have reached bottom. The credit situation is very much improved. Distribution of merchandise is on a smaller scale than it was last year, and foreign trade reflects considerable shrinkage. Agriculture is still causing concern, and the outlook for the livestock industry is somewhat discourag­ing. The business recession has possibly about run its course, and any change from now on is likely to be for the better, although im­provement may be rather slow. in January, the first gain in several months. Money markets were easier and member banks li­ quidated a large portion of their indebtedness at the Federal Reserve Bank. Call money in New York City was quoted around 4 per cent to 4 % per cent and t~me rates averaged 4 % per cent to 4 % per cent. Commer­ cial paper held around 4% per cent, and bankers ac­ 'ceptances declined to 3 % per cent. Bank debits in this district, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank for the four weeks ending Jan­uary 29, amounted to $852,000,000, or a decline of 7 i per cent from the same period of 1929. Loans at mem­ber banks decreased seasonally and were well below those in January a year ago, while member bank bol'­ rowings fell to $8,000,000, the smallest amount in about two years. Demand deposits decreased again, but time accounts made a small gain. A moderate gain is reflected in the number of new corporations organized in January. Charters were granted to 241 companies having capitalization of $6,103,­000, compared to 336 new corporations capitalized at $101,063,000 in January, 1929. The commercial failure rate shows about the usual seasonal gain. There were 59 defaults with liabilities of $757,000 reported in Jan­ uary, whereas 61 companies having liabilities of $1,181,000 went into bankruptcy in Jan­uary a year ago. A further shrinkage of freight car movement was re­ported in January. Total loadings in this district for the two weeks ending January 25 were 11.8 per cent below those in the same two weeks of 1929. Foreign tr ad e de­creased and coastal traffic was rather dull. Both retail and wholesale trade was slow. January sales of 82 depart­ment stores of the State amounted to $4,246,()00 as against $4,773,000 in January, 1929, a loss of 11 per cent. Production of crude petro­leum decreased slightly to an average daily flow of 848,000 barrels...and field work was much less active. The build­ing industry experienced the poorest month on record. Permits in 35 cities were only $5,917,000 against $8,005,­000 in January last year. Textile mills made a good recovery, but the lumber industry continued on a cur­tailed basis. Cement output was at the lowest level since January, 1925. Agricultural conditions grew somewhat worse and im­mediate prospects for recovery are not encouraging. Farm work lagged due to cold weather, and considerable damage was suffered in the truck-crop areas from severe frosts. Farm prices generally were lower. A total of 5,066 cars of fruits and vegetables was shipped from Texas farms in January against 5,417 cars in January a year ago. The livestock industry received a setback. Prices for all classes of animals, except hogs, declined, and many livestock products are selling at the lowest quotations in years. Range animals lost flesh, and considerable loss 4%. per cent. Bankers· acceptances were quoted at 3% per cent, down ;{! per cent from the month previous. The New York Federal Reserve Bank reduced its redis­count rate to 4 per cent early in February, and the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank followed with a reduction from 5 per cent to 41h per cent. occurred during the cold weather. WHOLESALE. PRICES Wholesale prices fell to the lowest levels since early in 1922. Farm products were especially weak while the livestock group, textiles, fuels, metals, and many mis­cellaneous commodities declined sharply. The Annalist index fell from 140.2 in the first week of January to 138.4 in the first week of February. Bradstreet's stood at 11.51 on February 1, the lowest point in 8 years and Dun's fell to 184.4. The Bureau of Labor Index averaged 93.4 in January against 94.2 in December and 97.2 in January, 1929. For some unaccountable reason, Fisher's index advanced from 93 in the initial week of January to 93.3 in the first week of February. FINANCIAL Easier money markets and liquidation of member bank borrowings at the Federal Reserve Banks were the out­standing developments in the financial situation during January. Not only were money markets easier in the United States, but also interest rates declined in all European banking centers. The Federal Reserve Banks have about offset the decline in member bank borrow­ings by purchases of bills in the open market so that the amount of Federal Reserve credit outstanding is about the same as it was a month ago. Gold movement, either in or out of the country, was rather small last month. Call money in New York City renewed on most days at 4% per cent and fell to 4 per cent on several occa-· sions. Time rates averaged 4 % per cent to 4 %. per cent, or about the same as in December, while commer­cial paper rates fell from 5 per cent to 4 % per cent to Bank debits fell under those in December and were 7.1 p.er cent under the volume in January, 1929. Checks cashed in the District for the four weeks ending Jan­uary 29 according to the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank totaled $852,000,000 against $917,000,000 for the same period of last year. This is the second consecutive month in which debits were below those in the corre­sponding period of 1929, and emphasizes the extent of the business recession. Total loans at member banks declined seasonally and were below those in January last year. Loans in this district on January 29 were reported at $359,000,000, compared to $375,000,000 a month earlier and $364,000,­000 on the corresponding date of 1929. Member banks increased their holdings of Government securities from $63,000,000 on January 1 to $64,000,000 on February 1. This is the first gain in this item for more than a year and is in line with the general policy of the Federal Re­serve System. Demand deposits were lower again. On January 29, these deposits totaled $286,000,000 or $7,000,000 under those of last month and $27,000,000 under the amount reported on the same date last year. On the other hand, time deposits increased $1,000,000 and stood at $139,000,000 at the beginning of February. Member bank borrowings at the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank fell to $8,000,000, the smallest amount in more than a year. Moreover, further declines are likely because it is not profitable for member banks to rediscount when interest rates on call loans and commercial loans are no higher than the rediscount rate. A period of low interest rates seems definitely assured for the next few months at least. FINANCIAL STATISTICS FOR THE DALLAS F EDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT* January December J anuary 1930 1929 1929 Bank debits (4 weeks) ___________________________________________________________ $852,000,000 $872,000,000 $917,000,000 Government securities owned, end of month.___________________ 64,000,000 63,000,000 93,000,000 Member bank borrowings, end of month____________________________ 8,000,000 9,000,000 19,000,000 Demand deposits, end of month___________________________________________ 286,000,000 293,000,000 313,000,000 Time deposits, end of month_________________________________________________ 139,000,000 138,000,000 143,000,000 *From the Federal Reserve System. CHARTERS A moderate seasonal gain is reflected in the number of new corporations organized in January. There were 241 new enterprises receiving charters from the Secre­tary of State in January compared to 162 in December and 336 in January, 1929, or the fewest for that month since 1927. Usually, January is the high month of the year, the exceptions being in 1924 and 1927, when busi­ness recessions were under way. In those years, the trend was steadily upward and somewhat in advance of business improvement. It appears that 1930 is likel) t0 follow a similar upward course. Capitalization of 241 new companies totaled $6,103,00C whereas the 336 corporations were capitalized at $101, 063,000 in January, 1929. Practically all of the neVI ccrporations were small concerns. There were 14 new oil companies organized agains1 21 in January a year ago, and public utilities decline< from 9 in January, 1929, to 4 in the past month. Nev manufacturing concerns fell from 50 in January a yea ago to 22 in the month just passed, while financial insti­tutions declined from 22 to 17 in the same period. New real estate firms numbered 20 against 39 in January of the previous year, and the general list was also considerably smaller. Permits were granted to 32 outside companies, or 14 less than in January, 1929. TEXAS CHARTERS Number Jan. 1930 241 Dec. 1929 162 Jan. 1929 336 Capitalization ______ $6,103,000 $8,423,000 $101,063,000 Foreign Permits 32 26 46 Classification of new corporations : Oil ----------------------14 15 21 Public Service 4 1 9 Manufacturing 22 16 50 Banking-Finance 17 9 22 Real estate-bldg. 20 14 39 General 164 107 195 COMMERCIAL FAILURES Fifty-nine commercial failures were reported in Texas during January, or the fewest for any January since 1920 when 33 defaults were reported. This compares with 47 insolvencies in December and 61 in January, 1929. Normally, January is the high month of the year, as far as failures are concerned, so that the gain of 12 de­faults from December is about in line with seasonal in­fluences. There was an increase of 7 failures from De­cember to January last year, and two years ago there was a gain of 24 between the two months. Liabilities of the 59 bankruptcies totaled $757,000 against $1,181,000 for the 61 failures in January a year ago. Many of the failing companies were small concerns, the average liabilities amounting to but $13,000 com­pared to $20,000 in January, 1929. COMMERCIAL FAILURES* Jan. Dec. Jan. Number ___________ 1930 59 1929 47 1929 61 Liabilities ___ ______ $757,000 $1,185,000 $1,181,000 Assets ________________ 357,000 582,000 655,000 •From R. G. Dun & Co. BUILDING As expected, the building industry made a poor show­ing. Building permits in January were the smallest for any month for which the Bureau has records. Moreover contemplated work was smaller. Permits in 35 cities of the State were but $5,917,000 against $8,785,000 in December and $8,005,000 in January, 1929. Compared to January, 1929, twenty-four cities reported losses, one was unchanged, and 10 recorded small gains. Engineering and construction projects let in Texas, according to the F. W. Dodge Corporation, totaled $18,000,000, an increase of 14 per cent over the January, TxU 1929, record. Contemplated work fell 23 per cent below the amount reported in December but was 11 per cent above the work planned in January a year ago. Con­struction costs were slightly lower. This situation cou­pled with iower interest rates should encourage increased building and construction later on in the year. BUILDING PERMITS January December January 1930 1929 1929 Abilene ------------$ 36,000 $ 596,000 $ 127,000 Amarillo 92,000 162,000 115,000 Austin 367,000 932,000 -190,000 Beaumont ------446,000 80,000 238,000 Brownsville ----33,000 5,000 46,000 Brownwood ----392,000 12,000 167,000 Cleburne --------14,000 72,000 365,000 Corpus Christi 312,000 46,000 214,000 Corsicana --------57,000 5,000 45,000 Dallas --------------536,000 533,000 883,000 Del Rio ____________ 21,000 12,000 45,000 ~ 10,000 3,000 13,000 El Paso 221,000 447,000 149,000 ~ Eastlaad---------4,000 63,000 12,000 Fort Worth ____ 478,000 341,000 611,000 Galveston 66,000 37,000 166,000 Houston ---------1,096,000 1,177,000 2,003,000 11,000 43,000 11,000~v!_~~~----:: 16,000 17,000 14,000 Lubbock ----------91,000 16,000 453,000 McAllen --------24,000 10,000 28,000 Marshall --------19,000 17,000 54,000 Paris --------------26,000 86,000 4,000 ~iew ------13,000 26,000 126,000 Port Arthur --138,000 87,000 64,000 Ranger --------------------------3,000 2,000 San Angelo ____ 78,000 441,000 96,000 San Antonio 734,000 3,111,000 1,058,000 Sherman 8,000 26,000 15,000 ~----------------------------8,000 33,000 Sweetwater ----20,000 29,000 84,000 Temple -----------50,000 114,000 213,000 Tyler --------------267,000 106,000 86,000 Waco ------------149,000 84,000 128,000Wichita Falls 92,000 8,000 147,000 Total ------------$ 5,917,000 $ 8,785,000 $ 8,005,000 STOCK PRICES The stock market recovered rather rapidly after the unusually dull month of December. Possibly the chief bullish factors were cheaper money and the somewhat improved outlook for the steel industry. Sales were small at the beginning of the month, and price changes were narrow; but as the month advanced trading increased and prices gained. Industrials made a much better show­ing than the rails. Five of the issues comprising the Bureau of Business Research industrial index were higher and 2 declined, resulting in a gain of 10 points in the index. The index averaged 237 in January against 227 in December and 264 in January, 1929. On the other hand, the rail index declined 2 points, or from 197 in December to 195 in January. Six of the issues included in this index were lower in January and three were higher. Cheaper SOUTHWESTERN STOCK PRICE INDEX 29..-.-----< of Average Mont hly H1gha t-----t-----------1-----------1-----------1 money coupled with the somewhat improved business sen­timent is likely to exert a bullish influence in the stock market. In constructing this index of rail and industrial stock prices, the Bureau of Business Research aimed to select companies which are representative of conditions in Texas and other Southern States . and at the same time listed on the New York Stock Exchange where INDEX OF RAILROAD STOCKS Average High 1923-24-25=100 1930 1929 1928 1927 1926 January 195 216 183 145 136 February 218 178 157 133 March •------------------------216 183 164 125 April 209 191 175 126 May 217 199 179 127 June 218 193 190 133 July ----------------------------------238 197 192 136 August 239 203 190 140 September ----------------238 215 189 144 October ---------------------230 215 186 138 November ------------------197 221 182 139 December -----------------197 212 183 143 quotations are available for a nnmber of years back. Tbe average weekly high for the years 1928-24-26 is the base equal to 100. Included in the Industrial stock index are Coca Cola, Freeport-Texaa, Gulf States Steel, Tennessee Copper and Chemical, T~xas Company, Texas Pacific Coal and Oil, and Texas Gulf Sulphur. The railroade used in the index are the Atchison, Topeka & Santa Fe: Chie&&O, Rock Island & Pacific; Gulf, :Mobile & Nortbern ; :Missouri, Kanau & Texas : :Missouri Pacific : New Orleans, Texas & :Mexico : St. Louis & Southwestern ; Southern Pacific; and Texas Paelfic. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL STOCKS II Average High 1923-24-25=100 1930 1929 1928 1927 1926 January -------------------237 264 245 167 142 233 174 146 February ------------------------265 239 184 136 March -----------------------------269 April ------271 255 194 135 260 199 137 May --------------------------------263 J une ------------------------------­ 256 243 203 146 July ------267 246 208 151 August ------270 247 210 154 September ----------------269 259 224 153 October -------------------------­ 261 257 225 154 November -----------------227 262 226 159 December -----------------------227 255 238 164 PETROLEUM Possibly the outstanding development in the petroleum industry during January was the sweeping reductions in the prices of crude. Effective January 15, prices of Texas crude were cut 25c to 41c per barrel, bringi'ng quotations to new low levels. Production has fallen off somewhat since the cut, but the output is still in excess of present needs. However, the lower prices are exer­cising a sobering effect on expansion, and prospects for curtailment in output are more promising than has been the case for more than a year. During the month, a total of 26,288,000 barrels was gathered in Texas against 23,671,000 barrels in Jan­uary, 1929. Daily flow averaged 848,000 barrels, a de­cline of 2,000 barrels from December, but 85,000 barrels above the flow in January a year ago. Field work was also less active. There were 504 new wells completed in January, of which 274 were pro­ducers. This compares with 624 completions and 252 successful wells in January, 1929. THE PETROLEUM SITUATION* (Production in Thousands of Barrels) J anuary December January 1930 1929 1929 Production-Total --------------------26,288 26,353 23,671 Daily average______ 848 850 763 Wells completed______ 504 575 624 Producers ----------------274 299 352 • From the Oil Wukl11. -Markets for gasoline were rather dull during the month and prices were reduced further. It appears now ;hat quotations are somewhere near bottom because the season of increased consumption is approaching, and runs to stills have been lighter in recent weeks. DEPARTMENT STORE SALES Trade at retail and wholesale slumped. Department stores especially; experienced one of the worst months in several years. Sales of 82 department stores located in 24 cities of the State amounted to $4,246,000 in Jan­uary against $4,773,000 in January, 1929, a loss of 11 per cent. The decrease of 55.4 per cent from De­cember is a little more than the usual seasonal decline. Every city, except one, recorded a loss. Retail sales in the entire United States in January fell 2 per cent below those in January a year ago. Nine of the 12 districts reported losses whereas only 3 showed gains. Atlanta. with a loss of 16 per cent made 1lhe poorest showing while Boston with a gain of 7 per cent made the best record. JANUARY TENDENCIES IN TEXAS DEPARTMENT STORE SALES Percentage Change in Sales No. of Jan. 1930 Jan. 1930 Stores from from Reporting Jan. 1929 Dec. 1929 Abilene 4 -27.5 -54.3 Austin --------------4 -10.6 -59.8 Beaumont ________ 6 ,.---8.1 -57.5 Corpus ChristL 3 Incomplete data -55.4 Corsicana __________ 3 Incomplete data -60.3 Dallas ----------------6 -10.9 -55.0 El Paso ____________ 5 -7.2 -50.3 Fort Worth ______ 8 -10.7 -61.2 Galveston ________· 3 -9.8 -51.9 Houston ------------8 -10.7 -55.3 San Angelo ______ 3 -10.0 -51.4 San Antonio ____ 10 -13.1 -50.6 Tyler ----------------3 -24.9 --49.9 All others* ______ 16 -9.2 -53.2 State --------------82 -11.0 -55.4 Sales of 82 comparable stores-1930 1929 J anuary -------------------------­$4,246,000 $4,773,000 December -----------------------9,525,000 •All others includes Amarillo, Cleburne, Del Rio, Denison, Lubbock, Marshall, Paris, Temple, Texarkana, Waco, and Wichita Falls. LUMBER About the usual seasonal gain in operations was noted iu the lumber industry. Demand gave some evidence of improvement, but it is likely to be some months yet before the industry is back on a normal basis. The gain in unfilled orders, coupled with the fact that pro­duction and shipments are well balanced, is a strength­ening influence. Production of 36 Texas mills reporting to the Southern Pine Association for the four weeks ending January 25 was 47,785,000 feet, and shipments were 47,386,000 feet, or practically the same as output. Production per mill averaged 1,327,000 feet and shipments were 1,316,­000 feet. Stocks on January 25 average 5,576,000 feet, or almost the same as at the beginning of the month. Unfilled orders increased somewhat over the month, and averaged 912,000 feet per mill on January 25. This is the highest average in several months. THE LUMBER SITUATION* (In Thousands of Feet) Per cent change from Jan. Dec. Dec. 1930 1929 1929 Preliminary report of 145 Mills 136 mills in the Southwest-Av. production ________ 1,396 1,216 + 14.8 Av. shipments ________ 1,262 1,082 + 16.6 Av. unfilled orders____ 1,192 1,076 + 10.8 Final report of 36 Texas mills- Av. production ________ 1,327** Av. shipments _________ 1,316 Av. stocks ---------------5,_576 Av. unfilled orders____ 912 *From the Southern Pine Association. **Four weeks. CEMENT Only 321,000 barrels of cement were produced by Texas mills in January, compared to 593,000 barrels in December. This is a decrease of 46 per cent, by far the largest on record. Such a large drop is not sur­prising, when it is remembered that the industry cur­tailed only slightly during the fall months and stocks have accumulated to unwieldy proportions. Shipments fell from 450,000 barrels in December to 317,000 barrels in January. As a result, stocks gained slightly and were reported at 817,000 barrels on Feb­ruary 1. Now that production has been brought more nearly in line with shipments, it appears that stocks are likely to be reduced over the next few months. No price changes were made during the month. The basic price on February 1 delivered f. o. b. cars on the job was $2.20* per barrel in Dallas and $2.30* per bar­rel in Houston. Ten cents per barrel is allowed for cash ar.d 40c for cloth sacks where returnable. t Prices quoted through the courtesy of the Lone Star Cement Com­pany Texas. THE CEMENT SITUATION* (In Thousands of Barrels) January December January 1930 1929 1929 Production ------------------321 593 466 Shipments ---------------------317 450 459 Stocks ------------------817 813 530 •From the United States Department of Commerce. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW SPINNERS MARGIN Spinners margin declined another two points in Jan­uary, making the second month in which the ratio has decreased. As a result, manufacturing margins were further impaired, even though raw cotton prices trended downward over the entire month. While it is true that cotton was weak, yarn quotations declined even more rapidly. Despite the present low cotton prices, yarn is relatively cheaper. It appears, therefore, that the yarn market must improve before any sustained rise in cotton prices takes place. American middling cotton in Liverpool averaged 9.43d and 32-twist cotton yarn in Manchester averaged 13.94d during January, against 9.45d for cotton and 14.18d for yarn in December. Yarn declined relatively more than cotton, resulting in a decline of 2 points in the spinners margin. The ratio averaged 148 in January, compared to 150 in December, and 152 in January, 1929. Spinners Margin refers to the ratio between the price of American 32-twist cotton yarn in Manchester and the Liverpool price of mid­dling American cotton. Normally, the price of 32-twist should be 210 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I SPI NNERS MARGIN I . " 0 Norma l : 157 I I /' ~~ ..... 1'7 '-./ '\. _/ A. ._....,,,, 15 7 / ,......., \.­ 15 0 - ~ .... ~ - - 130 I I I I I I I I j I I I I I I 110 1 9 2 7 1 g COTTON MANUFACTURING The textile industry of the State made a fairly good showing in comparison to the unusually poor month of December. During January, 21 mills used 7,166 bales of cotton, compared to 5,795 bales in December and 9,118 bales in January, 1929. While a gain from De­CE.'mber to January is the normal trend, the increase of nearly 25 per cent between the two months this year id the largest on record. TEXAS COTTON MANUFACTURERS REPORT Jan. Dec. Jan. 1930 1929 1929 Mills reporting ____ 21 21 21 Bales cotton used 7,166 5,795 9,118 Yards of cloth- Prod uced __________ 6,319,000 5,052,000 6,957,000 Sales ------------------4,984,000 3,382,000 4,250,000 Unfilled orders (end of period) 6,891,000 7,032,000 6,397,000 Active spindles ____ 187,000 188,000 206,000Spindle hours______-43,664,000 45,845,000 72,817,00_0 60 per cent above the spot price of American middling cotton. . It prices change so that the ratio increases, the spinners margin of profit is increased and thereby the demand for cotton Is atrencth­ened. On the other hand, when the ratio decreaaea, the apinn margin is also relatively decreased, and then the demand for cotton falls. SPINNERS MARGIN 1930 1929 1928 1927 1926 January ----------------148 152 149 174 150 February 151 151 179 160 March --------------150 156 148 173 April 150 149 168 155 May --------------------------­ 152 149 165 153 J une 151 148 172 157 J uly 148 147 167 158 August 151 154 164 160 September 148 152 156 166 October 149 148 156 194 November ---------------151 152 148 187 December --------------150 151 147 186 Normal= 157. 1 9 2 6 2 8 1 9 2 9 l 9 3 0 Production of cotton cloth amounted to 6,319,000 yards against an output of 6,597,000 yards in January a year ago and cotton goods sales totaled 4,984,000 yards, whereas 4,250,000 yards were sold in January, 1929. Unfilled orders declined from 7,032,000 yards on January 1 to 6,891,000 yards on February 1. In this connection, it should be noted that unfilled orders have been declining steadily since March, 1929. At the pres­ent rate of output, bookings are equal to a little over a month's run. COTTON BALANCE SHEET The indicated supply of cotton in the United States on February 1 was 9,212,000* bales, against 8,093,000 bales a year ago and a seven-year average on that date of 8,455,000 bales. During January, 577,000 bales were consumed in the United States and 729,000 bales were exported, or a total reduction in the supply of 1,306,00 bales. In the first half of the present cotton year, sup pJies have been reduced 8,211,000 bales, whereas disap pearance in the same period of the previous year amoun *This balance la obtained by adding the sum of the Cenaua c&rr1 oyer on August 1 and the imports since that time to the latest timate of the United States Department of Agriculture and tracting the exports plus consumption. Llntera are not Included. to 9,018,000 bales. The smaller disappearance in the first half of this year is accounted for largely by the decline in exports, although consumption shows some reduction. Then, too, the crop was larger this year, while imports are practically the same. On February 1, the indicated supply of cotton in the United States was 1,119,000 bales above that on Feb­ruary 1, 1929. Changes in the supply on February 1 in the past seven years have totaled 13,913,000 bales and changes in price have amounted to 4,116 points, or a change of 29.6 points for each change of 100,000 bales in the supply. At this ratio, with an increase of 1,119,000 bales, there should be a decline of 330 points from last year's price. On this basis and allowing for general price changes, New Orleans spots should be about 15.57c. This price is not adjusted for the low spinners margin. On a replacement basis and allowing for price changes since last February, New Orleans spots should be abou~ 14.75c. Last year's actual price on February 1 was prac­tically in line with our calculated price. European supplies of American cotton were consider­ably smaller on February 1 than they were last year, so that prices should be proportionately higher. On Feb­ruary 1, stocks in and cotton afloat to Europe totaled 1,797,000 bales, compared with 2,252,000 bales a year ago, or . a decrease of 445,000 bales. Applying the ratio of 29.6 points and allowing for general price changes and the low spinners margins, New Orleans spots, on a world basis, should be about 15.85c, or 1hc above present quota­tions (February 18). Current prices have more than discounted increased supplies and the market from now on is likely to show more strength than weakness. Statistics for January released by the Cotton Textile Merchants of New Yo~k City were about in line with ex­pectations. Production amounted to 323,000,000 yards and sales were 292,000,000 yards, or 90.3 per cent of output. Shipments were 331,000,000 yards, while stocks increased 1.8 per cent and totaled 453,000,000 yards on February 1. Unfilled orders declined 9.2 per cent, or from 431,000,000 yards on January 1 to 392,000,000 yards on February 1. .... r -. s41t!Bi' )l<"') t ,.: FC::~~·· COTTON BALANCE SHEET AS OF FEBRUARY 1 IN-THE UNITED STATES (In Thousands of Running ·Bales) Year Carry-over Imports Estimate August 1 since Dec. 1 August 1 1923-1924 2,325 118 10,081 1924-1925 1,556 154 13,153 , 1925-1926 1,610 151 15,603 1926-1927 3,543 191 18,618 1927-1928 3,762 186 12,789 1928-1929 2,532 206 14,373 1929-1930 2,313 191 14,919 The cotton year be11:ins on August L Total Consumption Export!! Total Balance since August 1 12,524 3,096 14,863 2,952 17,364 3,176 22,352 3,435 16,737 3,626 17,111 3,451 17,423 3,320 Imports In 500-pound since August 1 3,831 5,345 5,383 6,587 4,531 5,567 4,891 6,927 8,297 8,559 10,022 8,157 9,018 8,211 5,597 6,566 8,805 12,330 8,580 8,093 9,212 bales, COTTON Chief interest in the cotton situation at this time is centered on the prospective acreage to be planted this spring. Acreage in the United States has been increas­ing steadily for a number of years until at the present time even a small yield per acre assures a relatively large crop attended by low prices. Therefore, Govern­ment and many private agencies are advocating a large reduction in planting this spring. Very little field work has been done so far in most sections of the State except in the southern part where planting is making good headway. The unusually low temperatures of December and January possibly de­stroyed large numbers of insects but the full effect will not be known until later on. During January, 577,000 bales were used in the United States against 454,000 bales in December and 668,000 bales in January, 1929. Prices of raw cotton declined all during the month and reached the lowest levels of the season. May New York futures closed on February 15 at 16.03c against 17.57c on January 15. AGRICULTURE Farm operations during January were practically at a standstill. Cold weather obtained most of the month and ended in one of the worst freezes on record. Frosts extended to the coast in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, killing all the more tender crops and mJuring many others. Most of the citrus crop was harvested before the frost, but a large number of the younger trees were killed or injured. Replanting is quite general so that acreage of most crops is expected to 'be nearly as large as it was before the freeze. Shipments of fruits and vegetables fell off following the frosts and are just now getting back to normal. Winter wheat made good progress, the condition of the crop being far above average. Acreage is much larger this year. Winter precipitation has been only slightly below normal so far this winter, and there is good season i:i the soil in most cases. The most discouraging feature in the whole farm situation is the continued decline of prices. An upward trend would go a long way towards bringing about "farm relief." FRUIT AND VEGETABLE SHIPMENTS Damage to the fruit and vegetable industry of Texas due to heavy frosts in December and January is indicated by a falling off in loadings. Many crops that escaped the December freeze were killed outright by the ex­tremely cold weather about the middle of January. Moveover, many of the early planted tomatoes, corn, beans, and other tender crops were killed and replanting TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW "''as necessary. As a result, acreage is expected to be reduced in many cases. During January, 5,066 cars of fruits and vegetables were loaded in Texas, compared to 3,008 in December and 5,417 cars in January, 1929. The decline from January, 1929, is even more striking when it is noted that shipments of many vegetables were reduced more than 50 per cent, while citrus fruit loadings were in­creased nearly 300 per cent. There were 1,167 cars of mixed vegetables loaded against 1,903 cars in January last year and shipments of spinach were reduced nearly 50 per cent to 924 cars. A total of 1,133 cars of cabbage went out, a slight gain over the 1,068 cars in January, 1929. Sweet potatoes numbered 178 cars, or a gain of 100 cars in the 12 months. Loadings of cauliflower, lettuce, and potatoes were smaller. On the other hand, shipments of carrots were increased. Prices held about the same as they were in December until near the middle of the month when the frost dam­age occurred. After that, quotations advanced sharply, and the trend has continued upward. TEXAS FRUIT AND VEGETABLE SHIPMENTS* (In carloads) January December January 1930 1929 1929 ~i.xed vegetables ......... 1,167 655 1,903 :,pmach ··········-------·------924 855 1,743 Cabbage --····--·-···-······· 1,133. 159 1,068 Grapefruit ····-·-···-······· 1,021 859 313 Sweet Potatoes ............ 178 169 78 Cauliflower .................. 35 34 107 Onions ······-·-·-···-------·-··· ........... . ----------3 Lettuce -·····-··--··········-· 1 1 17 Tomatoes ············--·-·---· ······--··· 51 3 Oranges ······-···-··-···-··--·· 60 33 7 Potatoes ···-··········-·----· 10 4 45 String Beans -·-···-------· ········----12 1 Mixed Gitrus .............. 146 150 42 Carrots ···----·······----·-··· 391 26 87 Total ······-···········-···· 5,066 3,008 5,417 *From U. S. Department of Agriculture. LIVESTOCK No improvement was noted in the livestock industry during January. In fact, the situation is even less en­couraging than it was at the turn of the year. Range animals deteriorated sharply in flesh, and considerable death loss resulted due to the extremely cold weather during most of January. Moreover, it should be re­membered that animals went into the winter in poor flesh and were in no condition to withstand the cold wet weather of _the past month. It appears, therefore, that winter loss is likely to be heavy this year. Most of the winter weeds and grasses were killed early in January. As a result, feeding has been necessary in practically all parts of the State. Feed is becoming scarce. Prices for livestock and many livestock products fell to still lower levels. Recovery in the industry is expected to be slow. Cattle ranges on February 1 were rated at 71 per cent of normal by the United States Department of Agriculture. This compares with 77 per cent on Januaey 1 and 82 per cent on February 1, 1929. Practically all range feeds were killed by the recent extended cold weather. Cattle were placed at 7 4 per cent of normal, down 7 points during the month and 10 points under the rating on February 1 last year. Most cattlemen are feeding at least part of their animals and many have been forced to feed their entire herds. Loss has been unusually heavy in some districts. Range trading is practically negligible. Sheep and goat ranges declined 11 points and were rated at 69 per cent compared to 85 per cent on February 1 a year ago. These ranges are in a poorer conditio11 ~han has been the case in many years. Sheep deterioratec 6 points and were placed at 77 per cent of normal agains1 87 per cent on February 1, a year ago. Goats were rate< at 76 per Cent, down 6 points in the month and U points under the rating a year ago. Feeding is genera in nearly all producing sections and losses have bee1 rather heavy. Prospects of large lamb and kid crop were materially reduced. Wool and mohair prices suf fered further declines in world markets bringing quo tations to the lowest levels in over 20 years. Poultry and dairy producers experienced a poo1 month. Despite the cold weather, butter and eggs de clined sharply due to larger receipts and increased coli storage holdings. The full effect of increaesd farm flock is just now making its appearance in heavy receipts o eggs. As a result, markets are expected to show fur ther weakness. Movement of animals to market is on a larger scal1 this year than last. Unloadings of cattle, carves, am sheep show large gains in January over those in Jan uary, 1929. On the other hand, hog receipts were small er. In January, a total of 136,999 head were shipped tc the Fort Worth market, according to the Fort Wortl Stock Yards Company. This compares with 138,641 head in December and 123,963 head in January a yea ago. The gain of 41 per cent in sheep unloadings i.! rather unusual. Prices declined, cattle and sheep quotations reachin~ the lowest level for several years. Prime beef steen on the Fort Worth market for the week ending Feb ruary 15 were bringing 9c to 91A.c against 91hc a montl: ago, and calves were selling at 91hc to lOc, down le in the thirty days. Top Iambs slumped 2c and weni mostly at 8 % c to 9c, and sheep cleared mostly at 6c to 7c, or a loss of l 1h c from the month previous. Hog prices moved upward, the handy-weight class going a1 9 %c to 1Oc against 9c to 91A. c last month. LIVESTOCK RECEIPTS AT FORT WORTH• ' Jan. Dec. Jan. 1930 1929 1929 Cattle ------------------­Calves ------­----------­Hogs -------------------­Sheep ---------------------­ 51,716 22,884 28,584 33,815 58,600 28,126 26,538 25,381 46,070 17,057 40,381 20,455 Total -­ -------------­--­ 136,999 138,645 123,963 •From the Fort Worth St.ock Yards Company. ·-­