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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 
• 	Directorate of Intelligence19 November 196B 
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM 
SUBJECT: Rumors of Soviet 	Military Move Into Rurnania 
Summary 
·Reports have been received from several quartersin Europe alleging that Soviet and other Warsaw Pact troops--as many ~s 150,000--are to move into Rumaniarn 22 Noyemlm;. I •·. · ··. ·. . , ) 
Current Soviet military dispositions and 'politi­ca·1 behavior give no ind4,cations of any immediate moves against Rumania. I 
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• 	Other unconfirmed reports sugg~st that a Warsaw Pact exercise is to take place in Rumania this month. We have observed some small-scale activity in Rumania which could relate to a minor joint exercise or other kind of military cooperation, The scale and type of this activity is not indicative of a large military exercise~ Nor has Bucharest given the signs we should expect to see if such an exercise were imminent. 
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Reports of Military Move Into Rumania 
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4. If a major Warsaw Pact exercise is to be held in Rumania now, it would be the first time any Pact exercise of such scope has occurred this late in the year. We know that the official Pact training schedule for 1968 contained no provision for a maneuver in Rumania. Moreover, we have good information that a Soviet-Rumanian agreement was reached last month for a Pact exercise to be held there in 1969. 
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5. We .have received only tenuous indications 
that could be interpreted as re arations for a

f:;: =x:tcise in Rumartia.
( _ lthe installat on o amporary m tary communications facilities in the Bucharest area. Polish and Hungarian officers, and an East German militar transport were also observed in 
are e ieved to have been del very few Soviet ·air force officers subsequently were seen in two Rumanian cities. 

Comment 
6. Although most of the Soviet forces commi}ted to the Czechoslovak inter~ention have returned to home stations, .the military preparations necessary for intervention comparable to those undertaken prior to the invasion of Czechoslovakia have not been detected. We believe a Soviet-led invasion of Ruroania is unlikely at this .time. Although some Soviet forces on the Rumanian border were mobilized during the Czech crisis, f )evidence of mid-September indicated no buildup sufficient for intervention had occurred at that time, and, since then, there have been no indications from other sources of such preparations. 
1. In their public attitude and in their 
behavior toward the Warsaw Pact since the · invasion 
of Czechoslovakia, the Rumanians have sought not 
to offer the soviets gratuitous offense. Moscow 
has noted these signs, too, and seems, for now, 
to have eased its propaganda and psychological 

pressures on Bucharest. 
8. The Soviets can probably afford to play 
a waiting game with the Rumanians long enough 
to see what lessons the latter have learned from 
the intervention in Czechoslovakia. One important 
touchstone will be whether the Rumanians will be 
more visibly cooperative where the affairs of 
the Warsaw Pact are concerned. This would include 
participation in forthcoming combined exercises. 



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9 • . Neither have the Rumanians given the signs we' might expect to see if exercises were imminent. If an exercise were to be held in Ru.mania beginning on 22 November, party and state chief Ceausescu doubtlessly would have a campaign under way to prepare the people for this event.· (The last joint Pact exercise held in Rumania was in October 1962, three years before Ceausescu ·came to power.) No such campaign is in evidence. 
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