Texas .Business .Review September 1977 Vol. LI, No. 9, September 1977 193 Texas and OPEC: A Case of Economic Interdependence, Texas Business Review Published by the Bureau of Business Research, University of Texas at Austin Charles C. Holt, Director Lorna Monti, Associate Director The Authors Hossein Askari Associate Professor ofInterna­tional Business University of Texas at Austin James Creasey Teaching Assistant Department ofMarketing University of Texas at Austin Marian Blissett Associate Professor Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs University of Texas at Austin Charles P. Zlatkovich Research Associate Bureau of Business Research Carol T .F. Bennett Research Associate Bureau of Business Research Susanne Ethridge Cannon Teaching Assistant Department of Real Estate and Finance University of Texas at Austin Cover: Lower Rio Grande Valley agri­culture, photograph courtesy of Charles P. Zlatkoyich. Lewis J. Spellman, Editor Lois Glenn, Publications Manager Barbara D. Terrell, Managing Editor Mildred Anderson, Kay Davis, Marylyn Donaldson, and Joan Holloway, Data Compilation Daniel P. Rosas, Printing Coordinator Joan Farnham, Compositor James R. Buchanan, Graphic Artist Hossein Askari and James Creasey 197 Implementing the Energy Policy and Conservation Act in Texas, Marian Blissett 204 The Lower Rio Grande Valley: An Area of Rapid Growth, Charles P. Zlatkovich and Carol T.F. Bennett 210 Texas Construction, Susanne Ethridge Cannon Tables 194 State Energy Tax Revenues and Total State Revenues 194 Estimates of Royalty Payments for Texas Oil and Gas Production 195 Estimates of Texas Exports to OPEC 196 U.S. Exports to OPEC 199 Texas Energy Consumption by Sector, 1975 200 Projected Energy Consumption in Texas by Sector, 1976-1980 200 Estimated 1980 Energy Savings from Application of Mandatory Thermal Standards in New and Renovated Buildings in Texas 201 Suggested Interior Illumination Levels 202 Estimated 1980 Energy Savings from Mandatory Lighting Efficiency Standards in New Public Buildings in Texas 202 Energy Consumption by All State Agencies in Texas for Selected Items 203 Selected Industry Target Groups for Voluntary Energy Conservation in Texas 203 Estimated 1980 Savings and Costs of Mandatory and Optional Program Measures in the State Energy Conservation Plan 206 Percentage of Personal Income by Major Sources, Brownsville­Harlingen-San Benito and McAllen-Pharr-Edinburg SMSAs and Texas,1975 207 Nonagricultural Civilian Payroll Employment Percentages, Brownsville­Harlingen-San Benito and McAllen-Pharr-Edinburg SMSAs and United States, March 1977 208 Manufacturing Plants with More Than 250 Employees, Brownsville­Harlingen-San Benito and McAllen-Pharr-Edinburg SMSAs, 1976 211 Estimated Values of Building Authorized in Texas 211 Dwelling Unit Construction in Selected SMSAs, 1972-1977 212 Local Business Conditions 213 Selected Barometers of Texas Business 214 Gross Retail Sales by Kind of Business for Texas Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas Barometers of Texas Business (inside back cover) Charts 208 Age Profile for Brownsville-Harlingen-San Benito and McA!len-Pharr­Edinburg SMSAs and Texas 208 Effective Buying Income Profile for Brownsville-Harlingen-San Benito and McAllen-Pharr-Edinburg SMSAs and Texas Subscription rate: $5.00 per year. Single copy: $.50. Address requests to Publications Office, Bureau of Business Research, P.O. Box 7459, Austin, Texas 78712. Second-class postage paid at Austin, Texas. Publication number 540-400. Contents of , this publication not copyrighted and may be reproduced freely. Acknowledgment of the source will be appreciated. Texas Business Review is indexed in Marketing Information Guide and Public Affairs Information Service and is available on microfilm from University Microfilms. The Bureau of Business Research is a member of the Association for University Business and Economic Research. Texas and OPEC A Case of Economic lnterpendence The dramatic oil price increases of 1973-1974 have had a substantive adverse economic effect on much of the world, with the possible exception of Texas and a few other oil-producing areas in the United States. For Texas, oil price increases set by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have directly resulted in higher employment levels and higher tax revenues and have indirectly stimulated economic activity through exports and inflows of capital. For most of the world, the higher prices set by OPEC aggravated inflationary conditions in all oil-importing nations, deteriorated significantly their bal­ance of payments positions, and reduced the level of disposable incomes at a time when worldwide recession was already in progress. It has been estimated by the Interna­tional Monetary Fund (IMF) that increased energy prices were responsible for an inflationary impact of between 2.5 and 3.5 percent for most industrialized countries, an impact that was somewhat lower for the United States (1.5 percent) and a little higher for Japan ( 4.0 percent) and Italy (5.5 percent). I Furthermore, because of a lack of an immediate substitute, oil usage declined very little and thus the price increases reduced the level of disposable income available for non-oil purchases and contributed to the recent slowdown in economic growth. Hossein Askari Ja 1n es C reas e) These adverse effects are unquestioned, with the only debate being the relative impact on individual countries. It became apparent after the initial price increases that some countries would suffer more than others, depending on the proportion of imports of oil relative to domestic produc­tion. To make matters worse, the more dependent coun­tries, with larger trade deficits brought about by higher oil prices, are forced to bridge the gap in their balance of payments with products whose production costs have increased (due to these prices) relative to those produced in countries whose oil dependency is less pronounced. The issue, therefore, has been, "Who is hurt more or less relative to other nations?" Because of this focus, little attention has been paid to the possible beneficiaries of this alignment of petroleum exporters. It may seem unlikely that any industrialized nation or region outside of OPEC could actually flourish under the conditions described, but Texas has managed to do just that. While the United States has on balance been adversely affected by the unilateral pricing policies of OPEC, these effects have been neither uniformly distributed among the states nor unidirectional. Some states, Texas in particular, have benefited both directly and intlirectly from the higher price of oil. Table 1 State Energy Tax Revenues and Total State Revenues (Millions of dollars) Fiscal year Production Production Special Motor Oil and gas Total ending and regulatio n and regula lion motor fuel well servicing state August 31 tax, crude oil tax, natural gas fuel tax tax tax Total revenues• 1970 172 96 27 258 0 553 2219 1971 194 108 31 302 0 635 2454 1972 193 114 35 320 1 663 2858 1973 209 134 41 343 1 718 3150 1974 347 171 46 343 1 908 3716 1975 404 259 45 350 2 1060 4151 1976 431 364 51 376 2 1224 4816 •Excludes federal grants. Source : Comptroller of Public Accounts, Annual Financial Report of the State of Texas, annual volumes. A general indicator of the degree to which Texas has benefited can be found in the unemployment trends of the 1970-1976 period. Texas unemployment rose from 3.7 percent in 1970 (the base year) to a high of 5.6 percent in 1975, while the corresponding figures for the United States were 4.9 and 8.5 percent respectively. At the height of the recession Texas unemployment was 2.9 percent below the national average and only 2.6 percent above the lowest unemployment level, which occurred during the economic boom period in 19 73. 2 Admittedly, Texas was less affected than other states during the economic slowdown for reasons other than the stimulus provided by OPEC. However, OPEC and oil, the two being inextricably linked, are a major determinant of economic growth in Texas. They not only provide a direct infusion of dollars as an economic stimulus through higher oil prices but also affect the state's economy indirectly. In Texas the most obvious direct effect of the higher world price for oil has been the reevaluation of its oil and gas reserves. Although federal price controls prevented the wellhead value of Texas oil from reaching the world market price, the wellhead price of Texas oil still increased from an average in 1970 of $3.28 per barrel to $8.02 per barrel in 1976.3 World prices of oil during this same period ranged from $1.80 per barrel to the current price of $12.38 per barrel. Since the state tax on oil and gas production is an ad valorem tax, these higher prices have resulted in additional revenues to the state of Texas. The additional revenues resulting from the production tax levied on the wellhead value of oil and gas, although considerably below what uncontrolled domestic prices would have produced, have been substantial. Energy tax revenues rose from $553 million in 1970 to $ l ,224 million by 1976, amounting to 25.4 percent of the state's entire 1976 revenues (see table 1). Royalty payments from oil and gas production also increased from $672 million in 1970 to $1,867 million in 1976, or an increase of $1.2 billion (see table 2).4 In conjunction with the price increases has come an increased effort on the part of oil producers in the state to locate and retrieve greater quantities of oil and natural gas; in 1976, 13,884 wells were drilled in Texas whereas only 8,031 were drilled in 1973.5 Because of this, energy industry employment in Texas has risen by 25.0 percent since 1970. A total of 45.4 thousand jobs have been thus created.6 If the prices of oil and natural gas were allowed to move toward the world price set by OPEC either through adjustments at intervals to the price ceiling or through decontrol of prices, the Texas economy would be even further stimulated. The indirect effects of OPEC action on Texas have also been substantial. First, Texas has been a recipient of the increased spending on imports by the OPEC countries. Exports through the Houston Customs Region increased 206 percent between 1970 and 1976, against 166 percent for the United States overall. This difference in growth is attributable in large part to the role Texas plays as one of the major U.S. exporters to the OPEC nations. Export trade through the Houston Customs Region to these nations increased by nearly $2 billion over this period-an increase of nearly 440 percent (table 3).7 A further indicator of the degree of interdependence of the Texas economy and OPEC is the fact that this trade currently accounts for 20 percent of all exports flowing through the Houston Customs Region, a figure that reflects a much larger share of trade with OPEC than the 10.9 percent national average (see table 4 ). Another interesting point that can be drawn from tables 3 and 4 is that by 1976 exports to OPEC through the Houston Customs Region constituted almost 20 percent of all the U.S. exports to that block of nations. It is evident then that not only is the economy of Texas influenced by OPEC through its effect upon domestic oil Table 2 Estimates of Royalty Payments for Texas Oil and Gas Production (Millions of U.S. dollars) Year Total amount Natural gas Crude oil 1970 672 160 512 1971 712 180 532 1972 751 185 566 1973 873 229 644 1974 1443 347 1096 1975 1674 507 1167 1976 1867 674 1193 Source: Estimated from total wellhead value of annual natural gas and crude oil production in Texas. Estimates were based on 12.5 percent of wellhead value of oil and gas production. Texas imports 14.6 15.9 + 15.2 ......... 13.950Texas energy production 5.6 8.843 Texas energy consumption l Estimates of Texas Exports* to OPEC (Millions of dollars) Coun try 1970 19 71 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Iraq 3.0 4.1 3.4 9.3 48.7 47.4 s l.2 Iran 44.8 6 1.6 81.8 128.1 296.4 495.6 371.8 Kuwait 8.5 10.6 16.2 19.7 35.7 55 .9 63.2 Saudi Arabia 19.4 2 1.0 46.0 73.3 142.7 229.6 37 1. S Qatar 2 .0 3.2 5.8 7.6 10 .6 U.A.E. 10.1 20. 1 39. 3 56.9 56.9 Indo nesia 35 .S 39.6 4 5.6 58.9 65.2 77.6 85 .9 Vene zuela 2 4 8.1 257.6 307.2 399.S 645.S 856.2 992 .4 Ecuad or 41.S 4 3.9 44.S 6 6.9 119.0 I 58.0 I 57. 1 Algeria 10 .9 14.0 17.4 34.8 83.8 127.4 89.9 Libya 19.0 13.4 IS.I 22.4 37.0 46.8 S I. I Nigeria 22.7 28.8 20.4 34 .8 76. 1 108. 1 142.1 Gabo n 1.2 1.0 2.3 4.1 8 .8 11.9 8 .5 Texas expo r t to tal 454.6 495.6 612.0 875.1 1604.0 2279.0 2452.2 Figure 1 30 20 ~ f­